High count/Oscars' ....

[Boatman117]

This may be in the wrong forum but ....

As many people have already talked about on here, there can be a lot of negative fluctuation, even in a high count ....

I was just wondering if anyone has ever tried using some sort of progression system, particularly in a very high count that you just cant get the cards on ...

Oscars Grind comes to my mind, but maybe others might do better ... or WORSE !!!

haha

I know there is a lots I dont know yet ... but I do understand that progressions always dont work because of the house edge ... but I guess my thinking is in a high positive count the edge is with you and not the house ...

Which would be the only time to use it ...

My thinking is probavly too simplistic here but the thought keeps bouncing around in my head so I thought I would get it out here in the forum ...

Any and all input is appreciated ...

And if this should be moved to voodoo thats cool too ... but I am counting so thats why i posted here ..

thanks

[zengrifter]

The trouble is that progressions, be they positive or negative, INCREASE variance,
not reduce it. So any progression will reduce high count +EV.

The only scientific way to reduce variance in high counts is to simply bet smaller.

As for camoflauge purposes - I like negative progs in +counts and posi-progs in -counts. zg

[EasyRhino]

My understanding is that most progressions, oscar's included, start with a "small" bet.

In a high count, you should be using a "large" bet.

Therefore, if you adopt a progression in a high count, it might have you decreasing your bet, which would reduce EV.

Or worse, if your progression caused you to bet many multiples of your already-large bet, it would unacceptably balloon risk.

[Sonny]

Using a progression system can be great for cover. However, the cost of progression systems can be pretty hefty. It is the variance that is going to hurt you the most. If you are changing your bets using a progression system instead of betting proportionally then you will usually be betting too small or too large. The small bets will lower your EV while the big bets will increase your variance. Smaller EV + Bigger Variance = Bigger ROR. It also means a bigger N0, so you’ll be waiting longer to approach your long run expectations. You'll be risking more, winning less and having to play much longer to reach your goal.

Originally Posted by Boatman117

I guess my thinking is in a high positive count the edge is with you and not the house ...

But keep in mind that even in a positive count you will lose more hands than you win. Any progression system that varies your bets based on the results of previous hands will still fail.

-Sonny-

[ihate17]

I think I have deserved an Oscar for best performance of a steamer in a high count, several times.

[bjcount]

Originally Posted by ihate17

I think I have deserved an Oscar for best performance of a steamer in a high count, several times.

And the winner is.....

IHATE17

[ihate17]

Originally Posted by bjcount

And the winner is.....

IHATE17

I want to thank a few guys who wrote a few books. Special thanks goes to those denizens of the eye who always have time to look down the blouse of the cocktail waitress instead of killing time watching me play. A big thank you to the pit who was busy at the time writing out a comp slip for my dinner and of course a special big thankyou to the 2 guys who left the shoe early because the dealer was making 6 card 21's and killing the table (while using up all the little cards)