risk of ruin ??

[beyondbj]

how s my risk of ruin

if i find a game with 0.6% advantage

and i have 300 bets capital

i open 3 hands at the same time each round

i can play around 100 rounds per hour 3x100bets

after i played 480 hours , how s my % of ROR ?

[Sonny]

I would estimate:

Hourly EV = 0.6 Units
Hourly SD = 15.26 Units
Bankroll = 300 Units
Trip Length = 480 Hours
Trip RoR = 8.14%
Lifetime RoR = 21.3%

-Sonny-

[EDIT: If you meant that the casino has a 0.6% advantage then your RoR is 100%]

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by beyondbj

i can play around 100 rounds per hour 3x100bets

Is this a typo?

Originally Posted by beyondbj

after i played 480 hours , how s my % of ROR ?

The better measure is lifetime ROR, not ROR at a certain time. This is because ROR increases until you reach your lifetime ROR, and then decreases. If your ROR reaches its peak at n hands, you will have the same ROR whether you play n hands or 100*n hands. The number of hands only matters if you're playing fewer than n hands.

At 480 hours and 100 hands/hr (48,000 hands), you'll probably be pretty close to n (which is approximately the number of hands it takes you to double your bankroll, in your case, 300/0.006, or 50,000 hands).

Edit: beaten like a dusty rug

[beyondbj]

i mean i will earn about 9 units per day

first capital is 300 units

so 30 days later i got 570 units

60 days i will have 840 units

[beyondbj]

Originally Posted by callipygian

Is this a typo?



The better measure is lifetime ROR, not ROR at a certain time. This is because ROR increases until you reach your lifetime ROR, and then decreases. If your ROR reaches its peak at n hands, you will have the same ROR whether you play n hands or 100*n hands. The number of hands only matters if you're playing fewer than n hands.

At 480 hours and 100 hands/hr (48,000 hands), you'll probably be pretty close to n (which is approximately the number of hands it takes you to double your bankroll, in your case, 300/0.006, or 50,000 hands).

Edit: beaten like a dusty rug

what i mean is i open three hands in each round
so one hour 100 round is 300 hands
480 hours is 144000 hands

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by beyondbj

what i mean is i open three hands in each round
so one hour 100 round is 300 hands
480 hours is 144000 hands

Hmm, I don't know how to deal with that. There's covariance and stuff you need to consider.