Tracked Aces Today (first time)

rollem411

Well-Known Member
#1
So recently I've been practicing on my shuffle tracking techniques. It takes a lot more practice than just CC, but I seem to have improved greatly. My estimation on 2D is within 2-3 cards every time.

Today I took a drive to the casino and played for a few hours and had a pretty sh*te day. Just felt like I was getting rocked by every positive shoe, but that's just the price you pay sometimes.

Now I attempted to track slugs of tens, but nothing too drastic because I wasn't confident in my ability and I know the consequences can be severe. But during one round, 5 or 6 aces were dealt and put into the discard rack...luckily I estimated it to be exactly 2Decks. I kept with my regular game plan, but this time when the shuffle came, I payed particular attention to it. I had a general idea of where the aces lay and I cut the deck so they wouldn't be behind the cut card.

Well, after 10 rounds and completely forgetting about the aces, I saw 3 of them come out of the shoe in one round and realized the Aces that I had attempted to track were coming out. The next round I upped my bet, not much because of the confidence thing. Sure enough I draw an ace (I was playing 2 hands), but don't get blackjack and I think I actually lost on both hands. Kinda sucked, but I was pretty happy with my "fuzzy" attempt at tracking these cards.

Gotta keep practicing, but I feel if I combine the ST and CC together, the casinos will be running around in circles trying to figure out what is happening. Great thread tho on shuffle tracking below.
 

Ferretnparrot

Well-Known Member
#2
I followed the ace of speads that i saw oin the bottom of the deck while they were shuffling, it was time to come out i spread to two hands, what happens?...some guy sits to buy in at my table! im thinking if this mo'fer takes my gd ace i swear...so cards came out, i goto hit my 15vs8 and draw the ace of spades :sad: i lost that hand...all you can do is put the money out there.

Yo dont worry about following the cards exactly, even if you know theres 6 extra aces in a 2 deck stack, cut that **** to the top man and bet big for all two stacks, im pretty sure one extra ace in a deck is enough to put odds in your favor. Somebody correct me if im wrong on that one because i do bet on it occasionally.
 

Sandy Eggo

Well-Known Member
#3
All I do is count Aces in mostly 6deck shoes. I try to beef up when the weight is feeling heavy for 10s and the Aces are loaded in the remainder.

But I'm also playing a $2 or $5 table in San Diego.
 
#4
Ferretnparrot said:
I followed the ace of speads that i saw oin the bottom of the deck while they were shuffling, it was time to come out i spread to two hands, what happens?...some guy sits to buy in at my table! im thinking if this mo'fer takes my gd ace i swear...so cards came out, i goto hit my 15vs8 and draw the ace of spades :sad: i lost that hand...all you can do is put the money out there.

Yo dont worry about following the cards exactly, even if you know theres 6 extra aces in a 2 deck stack, cut that **** to the top man and bet big for all two stacks, im pretty sure one extra ace in a deck is enough to put odds in your favor. Somebody correct me if im wrong on that one because i do bet on it occasionally.
If you can steer an ace to yourself you give yourself a 52% advantage to win that hand. I believe its 52 it maybe be 51-55, somewhere in that area. So i agree you know you got a bunch of aces coming bet the house. Some times you will lose a hand with an ace but more times then not you will win it, and as we all know the only way to get those jacks which are black is to have a ace.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#5
Ferretnparrot said:
Yo dont worry about following the cards exactly, even if you know theres 6 extra aces in a 2 deck stack, cut that **** to the top man and bet big for all two stacks...
Just don't get too aggressive with this. Having 6 extra aces in a two deck segment will give you a mildly positive count (around +2 for a 6D game), but not nearly enough to bet the farm. If you know the precise location of the aces then you can get a much bigger advantage, but just steering them to the top of the shoe requires a more cautious approach.

-Sonny-
 
#6
Sonny said:
Just don't get too aggressive with this. Having 6 extra aces in a two deck segment will give you a mildly positive count (around +2 for a 6D game), but not nearly enough to bet the farm. If you know the precise location of the aces then you can get a much bigger advantage, but just steering them to the top of the shoe requires a more cautious approach.

-Sonny-
Using the method of steering high cards to a play zone, do you think choosing 10's instead of aces might be a better approach? The reason I think it might is they have almost the same EoR, but variance should be quite a bit lower when you are 10-heavy, because your wins aren't as dependent on non-even money hands: naturals and soft doubles.
 

bjcount

Well-Known Member
#7
Automatic Monkey said:
Using the method of steering high cards to a play zone, do you think choosing 10's instead of aces might be a better approach? The reason I think it might is they have almost the same EoR, but variance should be quite a bit lower when you are 10-heavy, because your wins aren't as dependent on non-even money hands: naturals and soft doubles.
I would agree with going for the 10's based on the sim results I came up with my shoe content study last month. Although the results are based on different cross sections of a played shoe, the results indicate that a higher ten count (left in shoe to play) will provide better SCORE then a higher Ace count.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=12076&highlight=shoe+content

I'm not a math guy, my reply is based on my results. Besides, cutting to an exact card (ACE) requires a higher level of accuracy then cutting to a slug of cards. My results from cutting either results in the ACE being the burn card :flame: or passes my two boxes 2/3 of the time and the guy next to me gets it :cry:. I need MORE practice.

I prefer the played out cards better then new ones, the wave gives it away, but you still have to be exactly on with the cut.

BJC
 

rollem411

Well-Known Member
#8
Sonny said:
Just don't get too aggressive with this. Having 6 extra aces in a two deck segment will give you a mildly positive count (around +2 for a 6D game), but not nearly enough to bet the farm. If you know the precise location of the aces then you can get a much bigger advantage, but just steering them to the top of the shoe requires a more cautious approach.

-Sonny-
Let's say you tracked a slug with about 4 aces in the next half deck about to be played. The rest of the cards are unknown. Also lets just assume its heads up.

How many hands would you recommend spreading to? I figure try to spread to as many as possible rather than one hand vs one hand.

I am limited in my experience with ST so anyone with some words of wisdom is helpful.
 

bjcount

Well-Known Member
#9
rollem411 said:
Let's say you tracked a slug with about 4 aces in the next half deck about to be played. The rest of the cards are unknown. Also lets just assume its heads up.

How many hands would you recommend spreading to? I figure try to spread to as many as possible rather than one hand vs one hand.

I am limited in my experience with ST so anyone with some words of wisdom is helpful.
IMO, If I was playing it and not sequencing the aces, if the count was TC>1 then I would stick to no more than 2 hands with double the bet per the TC until after the slug is spent or I saw the 4 aces. If the count is TC<1 at the start of the slug I would stay with two hands with a 1U bet. Many will not agree with me, but let the math guys show you the way. I would like to hear their opinions too.

BJC
 

mdlbj

Well-Known Member
#10
Counting should be a subconscious thing.. Then you start to use more advanced methods. Try a single deck with good pen.

rollem411 said:
So recently I've been practicing on my shuffle tracking techniques. It takes a lot more practice than just CC, but I seem to have improved greatly. My estimation on 2D is within 2-3 cards every time.

Today I took a drive to the casino and played for a few hours and had a pretty sh*te day. Just felt like I was getting rocked by every positive shoe, but that's just the price you pay sometimes.

Now I attempted to track slugs of tens, but nothing too drastic because I wasn't confident in my ability and I know the consequences can be severe. But during one round, 5 or 6 aces were dealt and put into the discard rack...luckily I estimated it to be exactly 2Decks. I kept with my regular game plan, but this time when the shuffle came, I payed particular attention to it. I had a general idea of where the aces lay and I cut the deck so they wouldn't be behind the cut card.

Well, after 10 rounds and completely forgetting about the aces, I saw 3 of them come out of the shoe in one round and realized the Aces that I had attempted to track were coming out. The next round I upped my bet, not much because of the confidence thing. Sure enough I draw an ace (I was playing 2 hands), but don't get blackjack and I think I actually lost on both hands. Kinda sucked, but I was pretty happy with my "fuzzy" attempt at tracking these cards.

Gotta keep practicing, but I feel if I combine the ST and CC together, the casinos will be running around in circles trying to figure out what is happening. Great thread tho on shuffle tracking below.
 
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