Keep this one quiet.

[Katweezel]

Here is my first BJ voodoo system I've posted here. As anything in life these days is not free, and anything free is not valued, then I figure say, $19-95 should be a reasonable price for it. ($995 would be more realistic, but...) If you read it, just slip a lazy twenty in my Santa stocking very soon. Yep, I take rain checks. You won't know for sure if this is serious or not. To find out, why don't you test it? Here goes.

Most of us silly, uninformed, uneducated, underperforming, unloved and probably unwashed card counters have believed all these years that the most important hand on the BJ table is YOUR hand. Wrong. The most important hand on the table is the Dealer Hand. It holds the power of life and death over you, mere mortal.

Even the Great BJ Guru-Authors don't really pay all that much attention to the dealer hand, apart from telling us over and over that the dealer will enjoy a whopping 28.20% average bust rate. (Oh, yeah, tell us again, please. We first knew that from Moses!)

That figure is incredibly high, don't you think? A massive 28.20% V the average bust for the perfect BS player - a shade under 16%. So we go in to bat using that 28.20% figure. In a 6-deck game, with say, 5 players and 75 pen, there will likely be around 80 hands and 16 rounds. Simple math says the dealer, on average will score around 5 busts for this shoe. Of course, it could be more, or less, but we need to have a reference point, to start with, do we not. You got a better one?

Now here comes the crunch. (Keep this quiet, as we don't want to alert all those doofus pitcritters out there.) If the dealer busts once in her first three hands - that is a sign from heaven just for you. You can expect to wind up ahead (flat betting perfect BS) around 70% of shoes that begin like that. Even better for two dealer busts, first three rounds. Even better for 3. (The 70% goes up to near 80%.)

Notice I said around 70% win for one dealer bust. I did NOT say 100%. (I know all Doofus' are not pitcritters!) Of course, wiseguy card counters (and now dealer-bust-trackers) like you, realize that should Lady Unluck unsmile on you today, this shoe could see you stranded up **** creek without a paddle if this shoe dbust total stays at that miserable ONE. But smart dude that you are, you know that could happen in this game where anything can happen. 30% is where those examples mostly go.

Now all you flatbetters out there, if there is NO dealer bust in the first three rounds, take a leak, then get a drink and watch, while you wait for the NEXT shoe.

There it is. Like most genius systems, this one is simple. Even for you.
Don't forget that lazy twenty.

[SleightOfHand]

but even as voodoo strategies goes, that was pretty awful. How did you come up with this conclusion that you will win 70% of hands where the dealer busts 1 of his first 3 hands? I don't see any connection between a single early loss to the entire rest of the shoe being profitable. Also, even though you at least looked at the statistical conclusions of studies, you ignored the win/loss rate of the same studies. Sure the dealer may have a higher chance of busting compared to the player. But the point of the game isn't to prevent busting, its to beat the dealer. Take a look at some of those numbers and see how you are flawed.

Give good evidence (using a simulator with a billion rounds) that you are right, and I'll gladly pay that $1000 for a 40% advantage. Hmm you didn't leave an address...

[Katweezel]

Originally Posted by SleightOfHand

but even as voodoo strategies goes, that was pretty awful. How did you come up with this conclusion that you will win 70% of hands where the dealer busts 1 of his first 3 hands? I don't see any connection between a single early loss to the entire rest of the shoe being profitable. Also, even though you at least looked at the statistical conclusions of studies, you ignored the win/loss rate of the same studies. Sure the dealer may have a higher chance of busting compared to the player. But the point of the game isn't to prevent busting, its to beat the dealer. Take a look at some of those numbers and see how you are flawed.

Give good evidence (using a simulator with a billion rounds) that you are right, and I'll gladly pay that $1000 for a 40% advantage. Hmm you didn't leave an address...

Hey, Slei... boy that's a mouthful of a name you got there. Hard to spell, too...I thought mine was bad enough...
I didn't leave any address or details because sometimes, people who don't have your high level of integrity can use that for their less than wholesome purposes. Not that I don't trust you. I don't trust... err, some. Besides, if I remain anon, then you won't pigeon-hole me, maybe.

It would cost me far more than one grand to do your one billion sim, just to collect one measley grand from you! Whattya think, I'm made of money! It's hard to come by these days, with every pitcritter breathing down my neck.

I certainly am not going to spill the beans on how I came up with that system; the Sorcerer would kill me!

Your obviously well-read math stuff in your reply looked like you just closed a Snyder or Schlesinger book, two notorious voodoo-haters. Does either of them play BJ anymore? Their math-nonsense has no place in voodoo houses like this, and frankly neither does yours.

Like I said, why don't you try it out first. This system could well be flawed, but if it isn't, you may well be floored!

[Slick Vic]

Originally Posted by Katweezel

It would cost me far more than one grand to do your one billion sim, just to collect one measley grand from you! Whattya think, I'm made of money! It's hard to come by these days, with every pitcritter breathing down my neck.

If this is such an easy win system, you damn well should be made of money...

[blackchipjim]

I heard of a system similiar to the one your're touting. It was based on the same assumptions only on the other hand. You stay at a table as long as you don't lose five hands in a row.When you lose five hands in a row not counting pushes you leave the table. I assume that you have no data to back up your claims of success. blackchipjim

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Katweezel

....
That figure is incredibly high, don't you think? A massive 28.20% V the average bust for the perfect BS player - a shade under 16%. So we go in to bat using that 28.20% figure. In a 6-deck game, with say, 5 players and 75 pen, there will likely be around 80 hands and 16 rounds. Simple math says the dealer, on average will score around 5 busts for this shoe. Of course, it could be more, or less, but we need to have a reference point, to start with, do we not. You got a better one?

Now here comes the crunch. (Keep this quiet, as we don't want to alert all those doofus pitcritters out there.) If the dealer busts once in her first three hands - that is a sign from heaven just for you. You can expect to wind up ahead (flat betting perfect BS) around 70% of shoes that begin like that. Even better for two dealer busts, first three rounds. Even better for 3. (The 70% goes up to near 80%.)
.....

why would you expect to wind up ahead 70% to 80% of shoes that begin like that?

[Katweezel]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

why would you expect to wind up ahead 70% to 80% of shoes that begin like that?

Ok Sage, you asked for it. Now didn't I say to try it out first? But you want the ins and outs of it and the proof to be delivered right to your door, like a pizza.
Just because you are my only friend here so far, here now, just for you, is the lowdown.
I began Research and Analaysis of this system in 1924, and the R & A continued (without me setting foot inside a casino) until I had it down pat. 168,582,379 hands later, (all played on my kitchen table) I was ready. All my records are written in 4 million small notebooks. I then paid good money to a series of Tarot card readers before I asked for a Blessing from The Pope, before finally, I paid big bucks to...The Sorcerer, who gave me the goahead.

So, in the 12 months I have been using it, I have won...$8.5 Billion, less tax, less the Pope's cut, less 10% for the Mob.

As a personal favor, I am prepared to send you 2 million of my small notebooks, so you can verfy my figures, scientifically. If you want to consult Snyder or Schlesinger for math-help, that's ok by me.

I am waiving the 20 fee because you have a lot of notebook reading to do. K

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Katweezel

Ok Sage, you asked for it. Now didn't I say to try it out first? But you want the ins and outs of it and the proof to be delivered right to your door, like a pizza.
Just because you are my only friend here so far, here now, just for you, is the lowdown.
I began Research and Analaysis of this system in 1924, and the R & A continued (without me setting foot inside a casino) until I had it down pat. 168,582,379 hands later, (all played on my kitchen table) I was ready. All my records are written in 4 million small notebooks. I then paid good money to a series of Tarot card readers before I asked for a Blessing from The Pope, before finally, I paid big bucks to...The Sorcerer, who gave me the goahead.

So, in the 12 months I have been using it, I have won...$8.5 Billion, less tax, less the Pope's cut, less 10% for the Mob.

As a personal favor, I am prepared to send you 2 million of my small notebooks, so you can verfy my figures, scientifically. If you want to consult Snyder or Schlesinger for math-help, that's ok by me.

I am waiving the 20 fee because you have a lot of notebook reading to do. K

lol, (whoops sorry). can i have the pizza instead.
hmm, ok i thought you was gonna quote Weaver in Lady Luck The Theory of Probability page 51 refering to Pacal and the problem he worked out regading the idea that the amount of the prize any contestant deserved, in a partial game, should depend on the probability that this particular player would win the game, were it carried to it's conclusion. and how Pascal worked out in detail, how the probability of winning could be calculated from a knowledge of the nature of the game and the partial score of each contestant.
that sorta of thing.

[SleightOfHand]

Originally Posted by Katweezel

It would cost me far more than one grand to do your one billion sim, just to collect one measley grand from you! Whattya think, I'm made of money! It's hard to come by these days, with every pitcritter breathing down my neck.

With $8.5 Billion, I would think that you were pretty close to being made of money...

Originally Posted by Katweezel

Your obviously well-read math stuff in your reply looked like you just closed a Snyder or Schlesinger book, two notorious voodoo-haters. Does either of them play BJ anymore? Their math-nonsense has no place in voodoo houses like this, and frankly neither does yours.

Like I said, why don't you try it out first. This system could well be flawed, but if it isn't, you may well be floored!

I suppose that I was unfair in the sense that I am very biased against voodoo. It seems clear that we are not going to be able to agree much of anything. Good luck to you

[davidmcclung]

Kat: I agree that there is often something positive going on when the dealer busts especially on double deck games, not sure of the logic however. My scheme works best on double deck games, compared to six decks or more. No need to wait out the initial three hands per your scheme. I have played several sessions lately for wins by doing the following: Playing double deck. Starting at $10 mins then after each dealer bust upping my bet by one unit, no regression, and keep upping my bet by one unit after every bust until the next shuffle. If no dealer busts, then bet remains at $10 throughout the hands until the next shuffle. $500 session bankroll. Example: initial bet is always $10, dealer does not bust so next bet remains at $10, next dealer busts so next bet goes to $15, dealer busts so next bet goes to $20, dealer does not bust so next bet is $20 etc. Whether I win or lose does not have any bearing on the next bet, just whether or not the dealer busts. Now the math purists and even myself do not see any logic to this, BUT in actual casino play it works quite well as I am sure you know, at least so far it has worked very well overall for me. This voodoo scheme has excellent potential(do need more sessions for confirmation) and my gambling bankroll likes it....