Odds question

[Thunder]

Does anyone know what the odds of you being up 11 units after 1800 hands would be assuming you were flat betting using BS in a 6 deck S17 DOA, DAS split up to 4 hands game with surrender? Can you also show me how you came up with that answer too. I know the house edge under these rules is .35%

Thanks.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Thunder

Does anyone know what the odds of you being up 11 units after 1800 hands would be assuming you were flat betting using BS in a 6 deck S17 DOA, DAS split up to 4 hands game with surrender? Can you also show me how you came up with that answer too. I know the house edge under these rules is .35%

Thanks.

i dunno how to do the math. just push button on cvcx. i just asummed 75% pen. so i guess this would give you an idea.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Thunder

Does anyone know what the odds of you being up 11 units after 1800 hands would be assuming you were flat betting using BS in a 6 deck S17 DOA, DAS split up to 4 hands game with surrender?

Just to be clear, The Wise One's calculator results above are the chances of
"being up at least 11 units at any time" during those 1800 hands. Probably actually "rounds".

It's assumed one will either achieve that goal at some point during the 1800 hands and quit at that point or go bankrupt in that many hands or just not achieve that goal in that many hands.

It is not at all the same thing as "finishing 11 or more units up" after always playing 1800 hands.

Afterall, sometimes you may achieve 11 units up at some point during 1800 rounds but still finish less than that if you are forced to play 1800 rounds.

Your question just sounded to me like it could maybe you meant "finishing" 11 units or more after always playing 1800 hands.

If that's what you meant, I'd guess the chances of "finishing" at 11 units or more after 1800 rounds are about half that, probably a little less than that.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Just to be clear, The Wise One's calculator results above are the chances of
"being up at least 11 units at any time" during those 1800 hands. Probably actually "rounds".

It's assumed one will either achieve that goal at some point during the 1800 hands and quit at that point or go bankrupt in that many hands or just not achieve that goal in that many hands.

It is not at all the same thing as "finishing 11 or more units up" after always playing 1800 hands.

Afterall, sometimes you may achieve 11 units up at some point during 1800 rounds but still finish less than that if you are forced to play 1800 rounds.

Your question just sounded to me like it could maybe you meant "finishing" 11 units or more after always playing 1800 hands.

If that's what you meant, I'd guess the chances of "finishing" at 11 units or more after 1800 rounds are about half that, probably a little less than that.

there you go enigmatic one lol. i'm glad you posted that cause i wasn't fully understanding the implications. i just knew there was something 'fuzzy' in Denmark. who says you shouldn't trust your instincts.
but yeah playing a negative ev game it kind of makes sense your not gonna score 11 units or any units for that matter by strictly playing 1800 hands or rounds.
so but you made it clear the idea is sometime before or by 1800 hands your chances are pretty good you'd have made the 11 units. nuther words if you have a goal of making 11 units and sufficient bankroll you have a 79.97% probability of reaching the goal if you play 1800 hands or less.
but heck if you just played at least 221 hands you have just over 50% probability of making the 11 units by then. so you might have made the 11 units already by then just your chances of having made the 11 units by then aren't as great comparatively speaking.
then i guess the other part of the story is how much would you stand to lose by the time you played 1800 hands?
like a progression system i guess quite a bit more than 11 units. like maybe if you lost as much as ev and std dev implys you might lose around $23.04 to 203 units (edit) or so by the time you finished 1800 hands if you only plunged 1 std dev to the bad.
so maybe if you wanted to flat bet and make 11 units it would be a good idea to stop playing when ever that happened or maybe even if you just got close to 11 units, unless you just really wanted to play 1800 hands. just know you might lose as much as 203 units (edit) about 20% of the time if you do play 1800 hands, sorta thing.
not really sure i guess thats how it works.

edit: ==>> after reading Sonny's post below, i guess i botched the possible units down way bad since i just multiplyed 18*11.287 = 203.166 units but i guess i should have went sqrt(1.129 * 1800) = 45.08 units for the 1 std dev to the bad.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Thunder

Does anyone know what the odds of you being up 11 units after 1800 hands would be assuming you were flat betting using BS in a 6 deck S17 DOA, DAS split up to 4 hands game with surrender?

For 1800 hands, your EV is 1800*-0.0035 = -6.3 units and your SD is sqrt(1800*1.33) = 48.93 units. If you end up 11 units ahead you are z = (11-(-6.3))/48.93 = 0.35 standard deviations ahead of your expectation. A z-score of 0.35 or higher occurs about 36% of the time, so your results are quite normal.

Originally Posted by Thunder

Can you also show me how you came up with that answer too.

This article will give you a basic explanation of standard deviation for BS players:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...g_And_Risk.htm

That will give you an idea of what range your results will end up in after a given number of hands. To calculate the probability of an exact result you can calculate the exact standard deviation (z-score) using this formula:

z = (Results – EV)/SD

It is a simplified version of what I describe as the probability of being ahead at the bottom of this post:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4891

-Sonny-

[jack,jackson]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

i dunno how to do the math. just push button on cvcx. i just asummed 75% pen. so i guess this would give you an idea.

Thank God for that one button thingy

[davidpom]

Great use of maths all, just shows how the collective good can come together to solve complex problems. Now, who's got the formula for acheiving world peace, and stable sharemarkets?

I'm guessing it's something like:

WORLD minus Terrorists minus Totalitarian Dictators and minus Children with Guns, plus federal reserve bailout funds and big investors plugging cash holes. But there's bound to be HUGE standard deviation on that. Anyone else got ideas on the formula to be applied?

Actually, on second thoughts, worry not. That's an "odd question" rather than an "odds question".