Stats on the asm's?

blackchipjim

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
I have been recently playing auto shuffled machine shoes and wonder if anyone has done any conclusive studies on them. I know they have no real effect other eliminating the bias that may occur in hand shuffled shoes. I have started to keep some stats on the overall counts that occur from shoe to shoe. My question is that has anyone else bothered to keep stats on the shoes that the machines shuffle. I know it makes no difference on the player's ability to make money but is there a chink in the armor? I would think a sim of billions of hand would show a flaw or a exploitable avenue to pursue. blackchipjim
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
#2
#2
blackchipjim said:
I have been recently playing auto shuffled machine shoes and wonder if anyone has done any conclusive studies on them. I know they have no real effect other eliminating the bias that may occur in hand shuffled shoes. I have started to keep some stats on the overall counts that occur from shoe to shoe. My question is that has anyone else bothered to keep stats on the shoes that the machines shuffle. I know it makes no difference on the player's ability to make money but is there a chink in the armor? I would think a sim of billions of hand would show a flaw or a exploitable avenue to pursue. blackchipjim
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Nada, unless you can see the shuffle pattern inside. zg
 
blackchipjim

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
patterns of shuffle

I understand your point ZG but that is made by a specific algorythm that I have run into alot of dead ends trying to gain assistiance with. I was thinking of more of base attack on the shoes by sheer numbers. By tracking the shoes curve in tc would it be possible to predict it's rise and fall or neutral curve with somewhat accuracy. This is way beyond my math skills but I think a good mathemation could reverse engineer the math to fit the machine. I was kinda hoping Qfit could or would answer this question from a computer beating computer sim standpoint. Thanks anyway Zg your ops are always valueable to me in my indeavors. blackchipjim
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
blackchipjim said:
I understand your point ZG but that is made by a specific algorythm that I have run into alot of dead ends trying to gain assistiance with. I was thinking of more of base attack on the shoes by sheer numbers. By tracking the shoes curve in tc would it be possible to predict it's rise and fall or neutral curve with somewhat accuracy. This is way beyond my math skills but I think a good mathemation could reverse engineer the math to fit the machine. I was kinda hoping Qfit could or would answer this question from a computer beating computer sim standpoint. Thanks anyway Zg your ops are always valueable to me in my indeavors. blackchipjim
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i've wondered the same thing. like if the machine shuffles the same mechanical way every time then you'd expect say a pack that was biased one way when it went in the machine to come out some expected way. so that if another similarly biased pack was put in the ASM you'd expect that pack to come out in a similar manner.
thing is as far as i know it's not known if the ASM has some algorithm that changes up the way it shuffles. that would throw a monkey wrench in the idea.:(
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
sagefr0g said:
thing is as far as i know it's not known if the ASM has some algorithm that changes up the way it shuffles.
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That could definitely be possible. One time, after several bad shoes in a row, the dealer flicked a switch, or did something, to the ASM. She claimed she had changed the way it shuffles. If she could do it manually, there’s no reason it couldn’t be done automatically.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
She might have been just making it up, and cycled the power.

Actually, at the shops I played at, if a dealer did ANYTHING to an ASM, they'd probably get in trouble from the pit.
 
blackchipjim

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Info

I guess my what I'm trying to achieve while not impossible is at best impractical. I would need either a machine or thousands of results from the machine. I was thinking of starting a asm tracking club which is not that far fetched. Here's what I proposed since it is quite simple. Everyone in the study would track their shoes as they were dealt. You don't have to be playing just counting and tracking results from the asm. I'm not a stat person but still think it's possible to tell if the shoe will rise in count or stay at it's present count. I have a few interesting theories about the machines I just need a few other people who would take mental notes when they play against the machines. blackchipjim
 
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bjcount

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
blackchipjim said:
I guess my what I'm trying to achieve while not impossible is at best impractical. I would need either a machine or thousands of results from the machine. I was thinking of starting a asm tracking club which is not that far fetched. Here's what I proposed since it is quite simple. Everyone in the study would track their shoes as they were dealt. You don't have to be playing just counting and tracking results from the asm. I'm not a stat person but still think it's possible to tell if the shoe will rise in count or stay at it's present count. I have a few interesting theories about the machines I just need a few other people who would take mental notes when they play against the machines. blackchipjim
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I believe that keeping a record of the count will not give you the results you are looking for. We need to get our hands on the machine, feed 8 decks of new unshuffled cards into it 100's of times and then map out the order of the cards after each completed shuffle to see if there is any consistancy in the order of the cards after each completed shuffle.

I would say that someone has already tried it but would be a fool to make the results public info if it produced positive results .

BJC
 
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bjcount

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
blackchipjim said:
I agree that results would be a breach of IT and should not be common knowledge.
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It's only a breach of IT or a Patented Idea if you produce a machine with the same technology. To reverse engineer the process for personal use to better understand how the equipment works would be the same as holecarding. It's just how you exploit the information retrieved. If you sell the info from your reverse engineering of the others Patented product, then your infringing.

Many Patented ideas are just improvements on others' Patents. For example if you could prove that the ASM always shuffles in a predetermined order and then you came out with an idea that forces the equipment to modify the order of the cards so this never happens again, you used someone else's Idea and improved on it.
Spend 10G for a Patent Attorney to write it up, file it, get it approved by USPTO, and then go to shuffle master and show them their short comings. You a millionaire over night.

Well it's not quite that simple but you get the gist of it. I am not a lawyer but we had gone through a similar circumstance about 10 years ago.

BJC
 
golfnut101

golfnut101

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
asm mysteries

I played nothing but 6d asm for a while, constantly wondering similiar thoughts Jim. You would find a shoe that had a rich count, say over 1.5d
and try to see if any of it appeared at any point in the following shoe. There was some 'residue' if you will at times, but there was also times where it was totally diluted. But Im talking those rare shoes where you get the silly counts
(I was using KO-P with adjusted IRC, so I wont bother with actual numbers)
to see, like I said, how the next shoe would play out. I think, if nothing else, it is worth sticking around for the next shoe to see if anything carries over.
Keep in mind that asm is doing its thing the whole time your playing the next shoe, as apposed to a dealer who would take much less time shuffling same shoe. In the end, I suppose one is going in blind anyways as you cannot visually track the shuffle...depressing:(
 
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Boatman117

Active Member
#12
#12
These ASM's though are countable.... Right ??

As opposed to CSM's which are not ....

That is the reason I went with an unbalanced count ....

(ko prefered)

Because of the problem of deck estimitation ...

So ... If I am on the wrong track here .... let me know ...

Thanks !
 
S

Sandy Eggo

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
CSM = I always ask how many decks in the beast. Lately, I'm getting 5 as an answer vs. 4 or 6. :confused: What's the deal with a magical odd # of decks?

ASM = depending on the dealer, it doesn't actually save time. I have one dealer who can out deal the machine and we wait occassionally for the ASM to finish shuffling so that we can continue.

And to the person who asked, yes, you can count on ASMs, and if you are paying attention, even Ace track the stack if a dealer is sloppy about their ends insertion in the discards. Which is why I'm amazed at players who always "dealer cut" a shoe or will cut the same as PEN so that you aren't getting the Aces back into play.
 
E

Elhombre

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
blackchipjim said:
I have been recently playing auto shuffled machine shoes and wonder if anyone has done any conclusive studies on them. I know they have no real effect other eliminating the bias that may occur in hand shuffled shoes. I have started to keep some stats on the overall counts that occur from shoe to shoe. My question is that has anyone else bothered to keep stats on the shoes that the machines shuffle.

Hi, I have done too, it's useless to grind out something to beat them
by counting.
Counting in shoe games is a problem itself. I am no friend of counting
generally because the flux.
And the CSM's have much smaller opportunities to count. Forget that.
The most common machine the One2six has a wheel inside.
The wheel has about 30 cases, when the dealer inserts the cards
about max. 1 to 2 decks out of the discart track into the machine, the cards are inserted into the nearest cases to the hole.
You could listen to the noises, if there are for example 50 cards have to
come into the machine, you hear 50 the same noises.
The cards come into the nearest cases with small gaps.

After that you hear an other noise, the wheel turns.
And the machine gives the cards out for the next round.

Why do i tell that in an open board, when I sequenze theese machines,
is the gain worth the afford ? Not, much invested time.
You have more sure money , when you clean toiletts.

The best rainer

It's much better to sequenze handshuffled games. Much more gain.
:cool2::joker:
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B

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
I read somewhere that the ASMs will randomly vary the # of "riffles" as well as the size. They don't do anything equivalent to stripping, so that may help with sequencing.
 
blackchipjim

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#16
#16
Man vs machines

Autoshuffle machines are just that shufflers,continuous shufflers are just that continuous. Asms are playable with counting while csms are not for the most part. The asms have a routine to shuffle one deck while the other is being played or idle in the discard rack. My point being is that all machines have routines even slots with random number generators which I won't get into now. I do believe that autoshufflers are trackable because with any machine there is a flaw how big and how exploitable is the real question. It is too tedious and not enough time it the days to track results by hand like the way counting was born. It has to be done from the mathematical end for any hope of accuraucy and to be proven effective. A million shoes seen which is highly improbable in my life left would be a start but still not accurate because rngs repeat at 2.7 billion. blackchipjim
 
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