Push Pays 10:1 Side Bet

[Pelerus]

In the December 2008 issue of CBJN, the first page news section mentions a casino in LV that is offering a side bet which pays 10:1 on a push. The max bet allowed was $50 during the reporter's visit, and is subject to change. This bet is said to have a player advantage of 3.8% (with high variance).

As I mentioned in another post, I will be traveling to LV soon - I am wondering if it is worth it to go out of my way to visit this casino and possibly devote a lot of time to playing this game. Obviously a 3.8% advantage is much greater than what a counter can typically achieve, and that can even be increased with certain deviations from basic strategy, such as standing on soft 17 vs. 7 (I am not sure what the other deviations are, though I would assume not splitting nines against an 8 is one).

Was anyone aware of this option being offered currently, and if so have you paid them a visit? Is this likely to just be a short term promotion, or to last for several months?

[jimbiggs]

I have seen this side bet, but did not play it. I didn't think this was a player advantage side bet, but I have never checked it out. I did see a player with counting skills play this bet every time. The fact that he played this bet convinced me that he wasn't a skilled counter, but maybe he knows more than I do.

Someone better at math can do a quick evaluation. One thing you must know. Your side bet is limited to half of the bet you play on your regular hand.

Side bet aside, I do go out of my way to visit this casino.

Edited to add - Just checked your other thread and during slow periods like early morning grave shift, this casino will have $5 DD tables with little to no heat.

[jimbiggs]

Found some info on the side bet at WofOdds.

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix8.html

[newb99]

I read somewhere that the usual split of wins/losses/pushes was:
42%-50%-8%.

If you expect to push 8% of the time, that would be 2 in 25 hands or 1-12.5.
So a 10-1 payout is still shortchanging and has a HE??

[HarryKuntz]

This side bet could be very profitable during high counts when pushes on 20's are much more likely, anybody care to do the math on this? I wouldn't mind playing this heads up! What are the BJ rules?

Pelerus maybe you should alter your post to protect this game, anybody could find the casino your talking about from the information you've posted.

[Pelerus]

Originally Posted by newb99

I read somewhere that the usual split of wins/losses/pushes was: 42%-50%-8%. If you expect to push 8% of the time, that would be 2 in 25 hands or 1-12.5. So a 10-1 payout is still shortchanging and has a HE??

CBJN quotes Basic Blackjack in saying that basic strategy yields a push 9.44% of the time. With modifications to basic, this percentage can even be increased further.

Originally Posted by HarryKuntz

This side bet could be very profitable during high counts when pushes on 20's are much more likely, anybody care to do the math on this? I wouldn't mind playing this heads up! What are the BJ rules?

Good point. Hopefully someone will step forward with a bit more info.

Originally Posted by HarryKuntz

Pelerus maybe you should alter your post to protect this game, anybody could find the casino your talking about from the information you've posted.

I was under the impression that CBJN is considered publicly available information, since they don't attempt to screen out casino employees from their list of subscribers. In any event, the post could be changed to remove any reference to CBJN and to instead just ask about the option itself rather than stating that it is currently being offered in LV. Perhaps a mod can give an opinion on this?

[moo321]

This sidebet should probably change your playing strategy. If you hit 17 vs. 8 and pull an ace, you're much more likely to get a 10-1 payout.

Something to investigate...

[jimbiggs]

Looking at Norm's ebook. http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

It looks like this would be a break even bet at +5 true, with a slight edge at +6 and higher. I would love to see a sim on this. Two of the casinos I like have this sidebet. Recently I played a shoe where I pushed every single hand except for two losses. I had nothing on the side bet of course.

[jimbiggs]

Originally Posted by moo321

This sidebet should probably change your playing strategy. If you hit 17 vs. 8 and pull an ace, you're much more likely to get a 10-1 payout.

Something to investigate...

I already provided an alternate basic strategy above in the WofOdds link.

[EasyRhino]

The weird thing about the wizard's page is that he says the aggregate house edge of both bets is 0.5%. That's about the same as a blackjack hand anyway. So what's the point of the casino offering it?