Why is 50% penetration in 2 decks worse than 75% in 8 decks

[Thunder]

Just out of curiosity, why do we counters prefer say a 75% penetration 8 deck game vs say 50% two deck game? I would think since the two deck game has only 1 deck remaining after the cut card vs 2 for 8 decks, that you would get more favorable counts with the two deck game. In addition because the distribution is lower in the 2 deck game, you'd more likely be getting the cards you expected.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by Thunder

Just out of curiosity, why do we counters prefer say a 75% penetration 8 deck game vs say 50% two deck game?

Is that a fact? I'm not sure it is.

Originally Posted by Thunder

I would think since the two deck game has only 1 deck remaining after the cut card vs 2 for 8 decks, that you would get more favorable counts with the two deck game. In addition because the distribution is lower in the 2 deck game, you'd more likely be getting the cards you expected.

This would be more or less my reasoning that 50% on 2-deck is better.

75% penetration on 8 decks is better in places where you can Wong effectively - because there are zillions of games with 6-8D/75% penetration, you almost never have to play at negative counts.

[bjcount]

For a simple response, the more cards unseen behind the cut card, decreases the inherent value of your count aka floating advantage. There is actually much more to it then that. I will run a quick sim for you to show the comparisons. of dd 50% 1-4 spread vs 8d 75% 1-12 spread. I wouldn't agree that that 2d is better in this instance - you are seeing only 50% of the cards. In the 8d when you have the advantage there is the possibility that it could run much longer then just a few hands, but as said by callypian, if you wong then the 8d works much better for you then the results below which are play all.

Top sim is dd 1-4 spread at 50% pen
Btm sim is 8d 1-12 spread at 75%pen

BJC

[bjcount]

And heres a 8d 75% WONG OUT AT -1 for comparison: (disregard the playall note in betting strat)
BJC

[White Guy]

That Sim looks fairly easy to use exactly what I am looking for. Which one is it?? Would it change signifigantly with 1-8 spread at DD??

[bjcount]

Originally Posted by White Guy

That Sim looks fairly easy to use exactly what I am looking for. Which one is it?? Would it change signifigantly with 1-8 spread at DD??

It's CVData and I ran a quick sim but there are many options to modify. The DD with a 1-8 would be higher score. If you used cvcx it would build the optimum spread for you. Here are the results for simple 1-8 spread 2u increase per TC 0=2u, tc1=4u, etc...
Can you get away with 1-8 on dd?


BJC

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by Thunder

Just out of curiosity, why do we counters prefer say a 75% penetration 8 deck game vs say 50% two deck game? I would think since the two deck game has only 1 deck remaining after the cut card vs 2 for 8 decks, that you would get more favorable counts with the two deck game. In addition because the distribution is lower in the 2 deck game, you'd more likely be getting the cards you expected.

Because in an 8/2 game you have 6 decks for a positive count to develop, and you can deal out an awful lot of small cards in 6 decks. In a 2/1 game by the time you get any kind of a count it's time to shuffle.

Also you can do the backcounting and extreme spreads in an 8D game that you could never get away with in a DD game.

[moo321]

It depends on the spread for both. If you're spreading 1-10 on the double deck and using some indices, you're probably better off. If you back-count the shoe, it's WAY better.

[EasyRhino]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

Because in an 8/2 game you have 6 decks for a positive count to develop, and you can deal out an awful lot of small cards in 6 decks.

Also, once you get to that high count, you have a better chance of the high cards finally coming into play, as well.

[Thunder]

Originally Posted by EasyRhino

Also, once you get to that high count, you have a better chance of the high cards finally coming into play, as well.

Why would you have a better chances of high cards coming your way in an 8 deck game at TC=+3 vs in a 2 deck game with TC= +3? I would argue the exact opposite since the distribution is a lot lower in a 2 deck game.