Just out of curiosity, why do we counters prefer say a 75% penetration 8 deck game vs say 50% two deck game? I would think since the two deck game has only 1 deck remaining after the cut card vs 2 for 8 decks, that you would get more favorable counts with the two deck game. In addition because the distribution is lower in the 2 deck game, you'd more likely be getting the cards you expected.
Why is 50% penetration in 2 decks worse than 75% in 8 decks
- Thread starter Thunder
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For a simple response, the more cards unseen behind the cut card, decreases the inherent value of your count aka floating advantage. There is actually much more to it then that. I will run a quick sim for you to show the comparisons. of dd 50% 1-4 spread vs 8d 75% 1-12 spread. I wouldn't agree that that 2d is better in this instance - you are seeing only 50% of the cards. In the 8d when you have the advantage there is the possibility that it could run much longer then just a few hands, but as said by callypian, if you wong then the 8d works much better for you then the results below which are play all.
Top sim is dd 1-4 spread at 50% pen
Btm sim is 8d 1-12 spread at 75%pen
BJC
Top sim is dd 1-4 spread at 50% pen
Btm sim is 8d 1-12 spread at 75%pen
BJC
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It's CVData and I ran a quick sim but there are many options to modify. The DD with a 1-8 would be higher score. If you used cvcx it would build the optimum spread for you. Here are the results for simple 1-8 spread 2u increase per TC 0=2u, tc1=4u, etc...
Can you get away with 1-8 on dd?
BJC
Can you get away with 1-8 on dd?
BJC
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Because in an 8/2 game you have 6 decks for a positive count to develop, and you can deal out an awful lot of small cards in 6 decks. In a 2/1 game by the time you get any kind of a count it's time to shuffle.
Also you can do the backcounting and extreme spreads in an 8D game that you could never get away with in a DD game.
Also you can do the backcounting and extreme spreads in an 8D game that you could never get away with in a DD game.
Also I would think that in a 2 deck game, you're more likely to have good counts than in an 8 deck shoe. Think about it this way.. I often go 3,4 shoes in an 8 deck game with 75% penetration without seeing a good count come to fruition. In a 2 deck game with 50% penetration, I would imagine it wouldn't take nearly as long to see a good count. Yes the good counts probably wouldn't last as long but at least you wouldn't have as long of a wait to see them.
a TC +3 game where there is still 60% of the shoe playable means there's a better chance that, at some point, the high cards will come out. If there's only 10% of the shoe playable, there's a greater chance the cards won't come out.
At an extreme level, the true count doesn't matter at all if the dealer's already shuffling.
At an extreme level, the true count doesn't matter at all if the dealer's already shuffling.
It's like you say, you do haver higher frequencies of +counts in a 1/2 game than a 6/8 game.
All things being equal, I'd guess counters would prefer a 1/2 game over a 6/8 game.
As others said, one just can't spread 1-16 in DD or even 1-8 and expect to be around long. I don't think you can back-count DD games for the most part, not sure.
Not to mention access to DD games, maybe.
Ultimately, what makes a game "better" is how you can bet that game vs another.
It ain't the meat, it's the motion
All things being equal, I'd guess counters would prefer a 1/2 game over a 6/8 game.
As others said, one just can't spread 1-16 in DD or even 1-8 and expect to be around long. I don't think you can back-count DD games for the most part, not sure.
Not to mention access to DD games, maybe.
Ultimately, what makes a game "better" is how you can bet that game vs another.
It ain't the meat, it's the motion
One question I always pondered in regard to penetration comparisons between two games: what is the difference in cutoff ratio necessary to make an 8 deck game superior to a 6 deck game?
For example, most here I believe would agree that a 1.5/6 is superior to a 2/8, as the penetration is 75% in both cases and, all else being equal, a 6D is superior to an 8D. But what about 1.5/6 (75%) and 1.5/8 (81%)?
This question has some current implications for me, since I promised myself that I wouldn't play any 8 deckers in Vegas, those being all that I have available in CT now. But I am seeing a lot of 1.5/8 listed alongside 1.5/6, yet very few >1.5/6. So might it be just worth it to play those 1.5/8s in Vegas too? (I hope not!)
For example, most here I believe would agree that a 1.5/6 is superior to a 2/8, as the penetration is 75% in both cases and, all else being equal, a 6D is superior to an 8D. But what about 1.5/6 (75%) and 1.5/8 (81%)?
This question has some current implications for me, since I promised myself that I wouldn't play any 8 deckers in Vegas, those being all that I have available in CT now. But I am seeing a lot of 1.5/8 listed alongside 1.5/6, yet very few >1.5/6. So might it be just worth it to play those 1.5/8s in Vegas too? (I hope not!)
It might have to do something with "floating advantage" as well. Think of which is more valuable a TC of +5 with 5 decks left or a TC of +5 with 1 deck left?
See http://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackeffects2.htm
Compare the advantage in the Red (52 cards in ) to the Aqua (261 cards in).
I'm sure that only has somewhat of an effect but the fact that you see larger variations in counts the deeper you deal (you know more information about the remaining cards) I would think would have a big effect. I mean in one situation you have information from 75% of the cards versus information from only 50%.
See http://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackeffects2.htm
Compare the advantage in the Red (52 cards in ) to the Aqua (261 cards in).
I'm sure that only has somewhat of an effect but the fact that you see larger variations in counts the deeper you deal (you know more information about the remaining cards) I would think would have a big effect. I mean in one situation you have information from 75% of the cards versus information from only 50%.
Is great pen in 8D all that it's cracked up to be?
If you're playing all, the above sims are valid. However, if you wong out at -1, there will be plenty of 8D shoes you never get past a couple of decks, so the pen doesn't matter.
Bjcount - how about repeating the above sims with a wong out point at -1?
If you're playing all, the above sims are valid. However, if you wong out at -1, there will be plenty of 8D shoes you never get past a couple of decks, so the pen doesn't matter.
Bjcount - how about repeating the above sims with a wong out point at -1?
More members should be using CVData, You can see how valuable a tool it is even for recreational players. I added a couple of other games for comparisons.
As requested:
Rules: wo=<-1, das, ls, s17 - SCORES are rounded, 1-12 spread, leave table at wong out (do not re-enter shoe in play).
7/8 SCORE 101
6.75/8 SC 87
6.5/8 SC 78
5/6 SC 122
4.5/6 SC 88
Deeper Pen has significant benefits, even if wonging.
BJC
PS: we openly discuss these issues which can hurt us as spies review these boards and pick up pointers.
As requested:
Rules: wo=<-1, das, ls, s17 - SCORES are rounded, 1-12 spread, leave table at wong out (do not re-enter shoe in play).
7/8 SCORE 101
6.75/8 SC 87
6.5/8 SC 78
5/6 SC 122
4.5/6 SC 88
Deeper Pen has significant benefits, even if wonging.
BJC
PS: we openly discuss these issues which can hurt us as spies review these boards and pick up pointers.
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