unbelievable card counter

[ccibball50]

I saw on tv, either the discovery or history channel, can't remember which.
However, there was a guy that counted cards, and he was able to keep track of every card play and thier suit. They would quiz him on the last few cards, and he named them every time. According to the show, he is the best card counter in the world.

Don't know how true this is, but I thought it was interesting.

[shadroch]

Some people have amazing skills. Former Knick Jerry Lucas memorized the entire NYC phone book on a dare from a reporter. In the middle of an inerview, someone would call out a phone number and he'd identify the owner.

[callipygian]

People who play bridge can train themselves to figure out exactly which cards are left and who has which one.

Memorizing each individual card isn't that much more useful than Hi-Lo in terms of blackjack. It's the law of diminishing returns - the simplest systems have the highest yield per effort ratios.

[Nazgul]

He is the best card counter but the worst blackjack player. Typical illusionist.

[Thunder]

If you could memorize every card that had been in play and then do the math to determine the correct odds for each play, you'd have a huge edge over the house I'd think. Card counting helps but for most counts, won't tell you if you're more likely to get a 3 or an 8.

[shadroch]

Neither will he. He may well be able to tell you exactly which 17 cards remain, but he can't tell you which order they will come in. Its helpful but not all powerful.

[Mimosine]

Originally Posted by Thunder

If you could memorize every card that had been in play and then do the math to determine the correct odds for each play, you'd have a huge edge over the house I'd think. Card counting helps but for most counts, won't tell you if you're more likely to get a 3 or an 8.

though mathematically, a lot of the cards are VERY similar in advantage, thus using simple tags like +1/-1 or +2?+1/0/-1/-2 is so effective. the other problem, is that the calculation of edge would be impossible for a human mind. and i mean even the smartest mind. think about it. what if all the 5s were gone, or the 4s, or what if six 5s, 3 sevens, and 10 tens remain. i mean you could go on and on and on, each shoe would be different, at each point in the deal. the composition of each round would be different, probably out to 1,000,000 or more hands (for 6D). it would take some serious computing power to even calculate the edge on that.

I would guess that it might even be too difficult to do this for SD. And what I mean is precise calculations, not guessing - or fuzzy counting.

even taking 5 cards out of a SD game (1 burn, 2 for you, 2 for dealer). How many possibilities exist for that round two scenario? quite a few. Go to round three, remove say 12 total cards. How many scenarios? odds of each?

Shadroch is right.

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by Mimosine

what if all the 5s were gone, or the 4s, or what if six 5s, 3 sevens, and 10 tens remain. i mean you could go on and on and on, each shoe would be different, at each point in the deal. the composition of each round would be different, probably out to 1,000,000 or more hands (for 6D). it would take some serious computing power to even calculate the edge on that.

I ran through 500 6D shoes. The edge with recalculating basic strategy for every distribution of cards is -0.42%; the baseline is -0.57%.

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by callipygian

People who play bridge can train themselves to figure out exactly which cards are left and who has which one.

Well you can't always tell who has what card because your opponents are trying to deceive you, but you can break down your options into a set of probabilities most likely to make your bid. E.g. "If West has the King of Clubs I'm screwed no matter what, so I will play as if East has it to maximize my score if he does."

Originally Posted by callipygian

Memorizing each individual card isn't that much more useful than Hi-Lo in terms of blackjack. It's the law of diminishing returns - the simplest systems have the highest yield per effort ratios.

It depends. In a deeply dealt SD game knowing all the cards can be very powerful, but that's an extreme and unlikely situation.

[ihate17]

Originally Posted by shadroch

Neither will he. He may well be able to tell you exactly which 17 cards remain, but he can't tell you which order they will come in. Its helpful but not all powerful.

I have never used a Casey or any other kind of illegal blackjack computer but in theory is this not what they do? They would know every single card remaining and figure the strategy based upon this. This gives them a higher advantage than cardcounting but as stated it does not tell them exactly which card will be next.
Carcounting does not give you index plays based upon there being a large number of 7's or 8's left in the stack, where this guy,knowing every single card could definately do this.

ihate17