Positive Progression Betting - luck or variance?

[tomhham]

I have been using a positive progression betting system for the past year and have been very sucessful. I have played approximately 42 sessions (1 to 2 hours per session) with 30 wins and 12 losses (I started keeping a record after about four consecutive winning sessions). During each session, I try to win $500 or stop when I lose $500.

My questions is how many sessions with what winning percentage are needed to say that this system works?

[Nazgul]

Originally Posted by tomhham

My questions is how many sessions with what winning percentage are needed to say that this system works?

None. You don't need to waste your time using these systems to know that they will fail. Read the thread at the top of this forum.

[davidmcclung]

Do not be surprised if your positive progression continues to produce good results. I too am playing a positive progression and my results are 30 wins and 4 losses after 34 sessions for net win of $3410. I am playing DD with good rules, simply starting at $10 and increasing by one $5 unit after each win(no regressions) with max bet of $20 and then keeping at $20 until the end, then starting over with the same betting sequence after the next shuffle. $500 session bankroll with win goal of plus $100 per session. How are you playing your progression, Tom?

[shadroch]

Originally Posted by tomhham

I have been using a positive progression betting system for the past year and have been very sucessful. I have played approximately 42 sessions (1 to 2 hours per session) with 30 wins and 12 losses (I started keeping a record after about four consecutive winning sessions). During each session, I try to win $500 or stop when I lose $500.

My questions is how many sessions with what winning percentage are needed to say that this system works?

Infinity plus one

[Thunder]

Originally Posted by shadroch

Infinity plus one

[standard toaster]

the truth is that it is all luck. What you have expirenced is not a suprise you will win more sessions with a progression system. The downfall to it is that you will always lose. There is no way to overcome the house edge with a betting strategy such as yours. Im assuming a martingale? Ive been writing a lot about gambling and have been working on this book... I havent loaded a new version or new pages on in a while but all you need read begins on the second page. http://www.keepandshare.com/doc/view.php?id=988174&da=y
i understand your thinking as i was once a progression believer like most of us were. Just do yourself a favor and read that section and believe it. I dont think many skilled players will argue with the voodoo section in there.
You can feel free to argue and make comments ill answer as well as well as i can.

I would suggest stopping your progression while you are ahead.

[fredperson]

Well, there is one progressive system that at least worked for 20 years...

Using computer simulation, I developed a win streak progressive betting system, loosely based on the Fibonacci series, that worked for 20 years.
Winning trips outnumbered losing trips by a ratio of 3 to 1, and average win
was 5 times greater than average loss. So we're talking about a total profit of literally tens of thousands of dollars.

I keep reading on this forum that a progressive system cannot possibly overcome the house advantage, and that the only way to win at BJ is to count cards. So, all you progressive betters, don't give up. There is hope.

[johndoe]

Originally Posted by fredperson

Well, there is one progressive system that at least worked for 20 years...

Using computer simulation, I developed a win streak progressive betting system, loosely based on the Fibonacci series, that worked for 20 years.
Winning trips outnumbered losing trips by a ratio of 3 to 1, and average win
was 5 times greater than average loss. So we're talking about a total profit of literally tens of thousands of dollars.

I keep reading on this forum that a progressive system cannot possibly overcome the house advantage, and that the only way to win at BJ is to count cards. So, all you progressive betters, don't give up. There is hope.

Please provide evidence for this. You either got very lucky over those 20 years, played very little, or are BS'ing.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by johndoe

You either got very lucky over those 20 years, played very little, or are BS'ing.

Or there may have been a mistake in the simulator program. I don't know of any commercial software that handles progression systems so this might be a homemade job. If he can post the code I will be happy to look through it. At the very least I could run the system through one of my simulators and compare the results.

-Sonny-

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Sonny

Or there may have been a mistake in the simulator program. I don't know of any commercial software that handles progression systems so this might be a homemade job. If he can post the code I will be happy to look through it. At the very least I could run the system through one of my simulators and compare the results.

-Sonny-

sage blackjack has ways of handling progression systems.
to what extent, i'm not sure.
it seems sage blackjack's website is no longer functioning.