Hybrid Bet Spread?

[BlackjackJD]

I am a fairly new counter in the sense of implementing it in casino play although I have mastered the Red 7 in practice. I have actually had past success using voodoo play of the 2-1-2 progression but I know I need to count to take my game to the level needed to be a PT AP and have a couple questions I haven't seen addressed:

1. I would like to play the $10 table six deck 80% pen, DAS, split aces HS17 no surrender unfortunately (which is the best available in my area). My question is if this will be effective using the Red 7 count using a 10 spread of 10-15-20-25-30-35-40-45-50 (hybrid) instead of the traditional 10-100. It seems based on my play as long as the dealer isn't hot you get your share of wins even when the count is not heavilly in the player's favor and seems this would be more effective than say using a 10 spread of 5-50 which leads me to my 2nd question...

2. I really prefer to sit a table for an extended period of time and don't see how viable backcounting would be performing on a consistant basis.

3. My goal would be to average a gain of $1k/month playing 10 hours/week. How viable is this with using the above, and if it isn't what do you suggest to meet this goal?

I have been a lurker for a while and this is my first post. I appreciate all the input from you veterans and much respect to you guys that have achieved success over the long haul.

[EasyRhino]

I'm not sure what you mean by "hybrid" exactly, but it may not matter.

1) What you're describing is a bet spread with a 5x spread between min and max. That's insufficient for shoe games. (It's insufficient for poor double deck games.) An orthodox spread for a shoe game, if you're playing negative counts, is more like 10x, 12x, 16x, 20x... or whatever the heck you can get away with. At 5x, you might be playing a breakeven game. But there's no reasonable expectation to win money.

If you backcount, and avoid all negative counts, or avoid counts worse than -1, then suddenly it becomes a legit profit centric strategy.

2) I prefer not backcounting as well. It feels like work. But the alternative in a shoe is to play with a large spread, which is still less effective than backcounting. And a large spread could run a better chance of getting you caught.

Note that betting 5-50 or 5-75 may be so far below the radar of some casinos that you're immune to heat. At other places, it would get you a swift backoff.

3) Absolutely unrealistic. A rule of thumb when counting is that you might have a long term expectation of one or two units per 100 hands. A unit is a min bet (unless you have a monster spread, then you min bet is really .5 unit or so) And assume 100 hands/hr at a fast table. So you might expect $10/hr if you play an orthodox strategy at an uncrowded table. You seem to be shooting for $100 per hour... so all you need is a bankroll that's ten times as large, and you're good to go.

All the "expected win" assumptions are ignoring the effects of variance which can be huge, and can flatten someone who is overbetting (or who is betting judiciously and gets very unlucky)

[bjcount]

This should hit easyrhino's message home

BJC

[bjcount]

Sorry, first sim used the incorrect rule set. Here is the correct one.

BJC

[BlackjackJD]

I appreciate the input. So to sum up, I need to do a minimum of 1-10 spread and ideally a 1-15. My understanding is that I can spread the risk by betting two hands when the count is in my favor and bet 5 units on each hand instead of 10 on one? Also, I can expect to win 1 unit/hr over the long haul.

[bjcount]

Originally Posted by BlackjackJD

I appreciate the input. So to sum up, I need to do a minimum of 1-10 spread and ideally a 1-15. My understanding is that I can spread the risk by betting two hands when the count is in my favor and bet 5 units on each hand instead of 10 on one? Also, I can expect to win 1 unit/hr over the long haul.

Why not stick to one hand at 1-12 if you play all or 1-6 or 1-8 if you wong. Besides, in 8 hrs of play how often do you see TC+4 or greater in play all shoes? That would be the only time you had 10u or 12u bets out anyway, should you decide to modify your spread a bit from the simmed results.

BJC

edit: I don't make any money pushing qfits products, but IMHO if your going to spend the time to learn, why not buy some of the tools that help you understand how and where you could improve. Even if you improve your winnings by 0.25% over a years play, say 100k of action (160hrs at red chipper level). It paid for the software.

[zengrifter]

Instead of backcounting - you will use "reverse-backcounting" - exiting bad counts while staying with your table spot - any excuse to exit will do - cell call, bathroom, keno, etc.

And use 10-2x$40 instead. zg

[bjcount]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

Instead of backcounting - you will use "reverse-backcounting" - exiting bad counts while staying with your table spot - any excuse to exit will do - cell call, bathroom, keno, etc.

And use 10-2x$40 instead. zg

ZG, How is this going to help him?

Do you mean for BJ JD to go $10-35 x 1 hand and then 2 hands at $40? Either way it is not a good situation.

Here are three sims. Wong out at -1. These are canned sims

top is single hand spread $10-$40 (See custom bet)
mid is two hands spread $10-$40 ea. (See custom bet)
btm is 2 hands optimum betting at 1-4 spread

BJC

[gibsonlp33stl]

I imagine he meant a mixture of your canned sims...something along the line of 10, 20, then spread to 2 hands of 40. But he wouldn't always play 2 hands, just when he wanted to go to max bet.

[bjcount]

Originally Posted by gibsonlp33stl

I imagine he meant a mixture of your canned sims...something along the line of 10, 20, then spread to 2 hands of 40. But he wouldn't always play 2 hands, just when he wanted to go to max bet.

I still dont see how there will be much improvement in the win/hr or SCORE.
If this is a frail player, going out 2x 40 at say TC+4 or +5 will occur maybe what, once out of every 7-8 shoes? His win rate increase would be so negligable it's a waste of time. If his max bet is $50, would he be willing to go out to 2 x $40?

BJC