Hybrid Bet Spread?

I am a fairly new counter in the sense of implementing it in casino play although I have mastered the Red 7 in practice. I have actually had past success using voodoo play of the 2-1-2 progression but I know I need to count to take my game to the level needed to be a PT AP and have a couple questions I haven't seen addressed:

1. I would like to play the $10 table six deck 80% pen, DAS, split aces HS17 no surrender unfortunately (which is the best available in my area). My question is if this will be effective using the Red 7 count using a 10 spread of 10-15-20-25-30-35-40-45-50 (hybrid) instead of the traditional 10-100. It seems based on my play as long as the dealer isn't hot you get your share of wins even when the count is not heavilly in the player's favor and seems this would be more effective than say using a 10 spread of 5-50 which leads me to my 2nd question...

2. I really prefer to sit a table for an extended period of time and don't see how viable backcounting would be performing on a consistant basis.

3. My goal would be to average a gain of $1k/month playing 10 hours/week. How viable is this with using the above, and if it isn't what do you suggest to meet this goal?

I have been a lurker for a while and this is my first post. I appreciate all the input from you veterans and much respect to you guys that have achieved success over the long haul.

I'm not sure what you mean by "hybrid" exactly, but it may not matter.

1) What you're describing is a bet spread with a 5x spread between min and max. That's insufficient for shoe games. (It's insufficient for poor double deck games.) An orthodox spread for a shoe game, if you're playing negative counts, is more like 10x, 12x, 16x, 20x... or whatever the heck you can get away with. At 5x, you might be playing a breakeven game. But there's no reasonable expectation to win money.

If you backcount, and avoid all negative counts, or avoid counts worse than -1, then suddenly it becomes a legit profit centric strategy.

2) I prefer not backcounting as well. It feels like work. But the alternative in a shoe is to play with a large spread, which is still less effective than backcounting. And a large spread could run a better chance of getting you caught.

Note that betting 5-50 or 5-75 may be so far below the radar of some casinos that you're immune to heat. At other places, it would get you a swift backoff.

3) Absolutely unrealistic. A rule of thumb when counting is that you might have a long term expectation of one or two units per 100 hands. A unit is a min bet (unless you have a monster spread, then you min bet is really .5 unit or so) And assume 100 hands/hr at a fast table. So you might expect $10/hr if you play an orthodox strategy at an uncrowded table. You seem to be shooting for $100 per hour... so all you need is a bankroll that's ten times as large, and you're good to go.

All the "expected win" assumptions are ignoring the effects of variance which can be huge, and can flatten someone who is overbetting (or who is betting judiciously and gets very unlucky)

This should hit easyrhino's message home

BJC

Sorry, first sim used the incorrect rule set. Here is the correct one.

BJC

I appreciate the input. So to sum up, I need to do a minimum of 1-10 spread and ideally a 1-15. My understanding is that I can spread the risk by betting two hands when the count is in my favor and bet 5 units on each hand instead of 10 on one? Also, I can expect to win 1 unit/hr over the long haul.

Why not stick to one hand at 1-12 if you play all or 1-6 or 1-8 if you wong. Besides, in 8 hrs of play how often do you see TC+4 or greater in play all shoes? That would be the only time you had 10u or 12u bets out anyway, should you decide to modify your spread a bit from the simmed results.

BJC

edit: I don't make any money pushing qfits products, but IMHO if your going to spend the time to learn, why not buy some of the tools that help you understand how and where you could improve. Even if you improve your winnings by 0.25% over a years play, say 100k of action (160hrs at red chipper level). It paid for the software.

Instead of backcounting - you will use "reverse-backcounting" - exiting bad counts while staying with your table spot - any excuse to exit will do - cell call, bathroom, keno, etc.

And use 10-2x$40 instead. zg

ZG, How is this going to help him?

Do you mean for BJ JD to go $10-35 x 1 hand and then 2 hands at $40? Either way it is not a good situation.

Here are three sims. Wong out at -1. These are canned sims

top is single hand spread $10-$40 (See custom bet)
mid is two hands spread $10-$40 ea. (See custom bet)
btm is 2 hands optimum betting at 1-4 spread

BJC

I imagine he meant a mixture of your canned sims...something along the line of 10, 20, then spread to 2 hands of 40. But he wouldn't always play 2 hands, just when he wanted to go to max bet.

I still dont see how there will be much improvement in the win/hr or SCORE.
If this is a frail player, going out 2x 40 at say TC+4 or +5 will occur maybe what, once out of every 7-8 shoes? His win rate increase would be so negligable it's a waste of time. If his max bet is $50, would he be willing to go out to 2 x $40?

BJC

I think he's asking for advice...if's he's too frail to put out 2 x $40 then better practice back counting hardcore and only play about 5 hands per hour at whatever bet he's comfortable with and making little profit. My bigger concern would be the size of the BR. The way he's playing now I doubt he has 20k to play BJ with...however, I could very well be wrong about that...

It won't help winrate or score, but it will help ROR.

I would argue for a 10-3X30 or 35. If you're on a tight bankroll you MUST play aggressively. Two hands are better than one unless youre heads up.

I agree with the two hand spread and the benefits it brings, but the max bet is not high enough to answer his question. Going back to his earlier question about wanting to make 1k/month playing 10hrs a week, that's $25/hr which will never be achievable based on the game he plays and the low spread. Even at the 1-12 spread in the sims optimum betting spread is only $20/hr and thats with a $120 max bet and WO-1.

I still can not see how a single change to your max bet, even at 3x35, will improve his chances of meeting his goal. Even if he jumped his bet from TC+2 = $20, and then at TC+3 = 3x 35, forgetting the heat issue, it still would not meet his goal. A quick sim at WI at +3 at 2x35 produces a win rate of only $10.91/hr.

The player may play very aggressive, have phenominal luck, and make his goal one month but then the next give it back. By sim results, in 40 hrs he's looking at $436/month with WI+3 which is 43% of his goal.

He would need to WO-1, with a spread of 1-20, $10 min, use HILO with full indices to achieve $25/hr.

Since I forgot that he said he was using Red 7, a quick look at the canned sim indicates that WO-3 produces only $18.39/hr with the same 1-20 spread.

I am not a math guy, so I use CVdata & CVCX to assist me in improving my play. I hope these ideas we all posted leads him in the right direction.

BJC

Did I read the second screenshot correctly in that it predicted a $7 win over EIGHT HOURS with a 10-50 spread and wonging out at -1?

If so, that's far more depressing than I had even thought.

Yeah, I don't know what to make of it either. I guess I don't really understand the "Departure Adj" field and/or the "Back-counting" field enough to talk about it. I had thought maybe the "Departure" field was kind of like for ODD play and the "Backcount" field assumed mid-shoe entry always allowed.

Using both fields at the same time, I guess I'm pretty clueless at the moment as to what that means lol.

Especially with -1 in one and +1 in the other, if that's waht I saw lol.

It did seem a little depressing to me too. And. I'm pretty much the poster-child of "depresing" to begin with lol.

Don't go deeper into depression, but the departure box was not checked. So if I understand the departures use properly, if it's not checked you leave immediately at your WO point which is TC-1 in the sims. Here's Qfit definition:

Departure Adjustment - This option only appears when Back-Counting is selected. CVCX normally assumes that you play all hands at or above the selected count. However, most people will stay at the table for awhile if the count dips below that Wong-In point. This feature is based on a methodology posted by DD’. When selected, an estimate is made of the SCORE and Win Rate as if you exited the table when the count has dropped to the first row of counts displayed (normally -1.) Note: This is only an estimate. CVData must be used to calculate the exact numbers. Also, you can enter a number. This is the number of hands that it would take you to find a new table. So, if you enter 10, you are estimating that it you will waste ten hands looking for a new table and the Win Rate will be decreased accordingly.


BJC

The way you plan on betting will work, dont let the spread nazis foll you, you just wont make very much money doing it that way.

if you can only afford a 50 dolalr max bet, you can effectively increase your spread by playing less hands at low/negetive counts in proportion to hands played at higher counts.

You can do this by...

-bailing out at counts that are negetive to start a fresh shoe at another table
-periodically sitting out a hand or two during times of non player advantage, try claiming your altering the flow fo cards or somethign as an excuse, or some other superstitious reason.
-spreading to play multiple hands at higher counts

You can also, sit and watch the cards get dealt and only sit down and play if the count is in your favor. when you do that, you dont have to spread at all, you can backcount for hours, you just have to float around a bit so that you only drop a few bets in each pit for a short period of time, then goto the next pit.

If you play ten hours a week, you wont make 1k a month playing the way you are, at a minimum, you woudl need to puting an average of 100+ per round dealt at player advantage. which may be feasable if you play two spots of 50 dollars, and only back count.

Playing in the manor you suggest however i estimate you will make about 4-7/hr the way you intend to play

Thanks BJC - you're right - I just saw the "1" and thought the box was checked lol.

On the "back-counting" block that says 70 hands per hour. I assume that probably means one plays 70 hands of every 100 seen? In other words, even though the bet column as "10" in it on the line that says TC="<=-1" means that $10 bet never actually was played at TC-2 or below?

So the sim is basically assuming 100 rounds dealt per hour of which you only play 70?

In other words the "back-counting" block assumes one could sit there, see all hands played, and play any hand he wants when he feels like it - in other words "mid-shoe entry" is assumed to be allowed?

Even though, to your broader point, I don't have the software, but if I did, I'd still want to understand what the heck it is assuming lol.

Like whatever it is assuming, it seems like 45% of rounds are played at <= to TC-1, 28% are played at TC=0 hich leaves only 27% played at TC=+1 or more.

Kasi
I went back to cvcx help section to answer your question. I set the total hands/hr at 70. Next to "backcounting" you see a percentage which in this case is 100%. This means that the sim has "estimated" that you will play 100% of the 70 hands/hr.
For another example which I pulled out from a canned sim, if WO at 0, you play only 54.9% of the 70 h/hr.
at WO +1 you play only 28.2% of the 70 h/hr.

Hope that helps you out.

BJC