LUCK VS SKILL => voo doo? Advise?

Never bothering to study much I thought I was just sort of on to it by happenstanse. I play at CA casino single deck which deals two rounds with 5 players. I require 4+ at the table, me sitting near 3rd base, being able to see downcards from friendly neighbors +avoiding certain dealers (3 of 10 aren't worth playing with due to CM). Under these conditions I find I can take 2-6 units per hour- with my goal being 12 per 3 hour session. I bet 1-6 units; with occassional 10 or 20 unit bets when it "looks" making it look like a goofy play. This might occur once a session, say with a +5 TC, all/most of the fives out + all/ most of the aces in... It looks goofy as I also adjust BS with small bets out using my count to predict the hole card low or high at time of deal- staying or hitting on my stiffs based on the hole card prediction.
So the watchers would say it sure isn't BS- but when I get the biggest bet out- it 100% is adjusted BS for the highcount...So does make me a loon voo doo player? Am I just on a 3 month 3k luck run again. Because of my table requirements, work schedule etc I'm only able to play about 12 hours per week primamily betting $5 to 30. I'm pretty tight with funds, they aren't going back in the tray. If things turn on me; after $2-300 I pull out and take a break trying again a week later with $50 until I get something going...


What changes should I make to my approach?

There is a 4 deck game accross town. Should I be there instead?

If by CA you mean "california", then you're probably playing a terrible single deck game, with either 6:5 payout on BJ, or super fun 21 or something.
You wouldn't have an advantage.

So yes, it's just luck.

Sounds like luck to me. Using the count to predict the hole card is not a reliable technique. I don't know how you calculated your strategy departures for this method but I would be cautious about using them even in negative counts with minimum bets. A goal of 4 units per hour is not reasonable either. A decent game will realistically give about 1-2 units per hour. At the crowded table with bad penetration that you mention, you probably won’t even get that much. And, as EasyRhino pointed out, the rules are probably bad enough that you don’t have an advantage at all.

If you want to start earning money, the first step is to learn how to recognize good games and avoid bad games. The next step is to learn legitimate AP techniques and how to apply them to the game you are playing. Luckily you came to the right place.

-Sonny-

Follow Up

Thank you for your help!

Yes it is California....

But BJ pays 2.5 to 1. A $5 bet recevices $12.50...

I thought having more players at the table helps by increasing penetration in the sence I at least see the cards played before the next round. With 1 or 2 it is impossible here...

I hope by asking its clear that I'm assuming I had it wrong- therefore just clarifying now so as to better understand whats happening-and not arguing the points.

As for the hole card, if the count is quite negative on the second deal; I "guess" it is not a face and play accordingly and vis a versa with a high count. I feel that with BS I'm assuming it is a face and right 30% of the time. With my small bet- I really can't be coming close to BS results (which seem really low)?

So is the notion that my "guesses with a single unit bet + the expectation I gain from a higher bet allows me to exceed just playing BS with a 1-4 spread" is completely impossible?

I.E. it is the fact that by foregoing BS quite often I'm able to bet the higher amount- other wise the dealers would certainly drop the deck and shuffle.

What should I look for to qualify as a good game?

There are a few casinos with multi-decks, this one with a single deck I thought was good. Reno nevada is not to far away either..

Okay I browsed through CBJN. For single deck with an honest 3:2 payout, you're looking at Barona in San Diego (generally a $25 min game), Soboba in the desert, or what seems to be some pretty backwoods places in northern California. That sound right?

Anyway, it doesn't sound like you're using much of an orthodox count, and it sounds like your plays are made largely on guesswork. Normally, when counting, your "departure" plays are very modest. you might stand on 16v10 or 15v10, but you would never think of standing on 12v7, for instance.

Such play would be, at the long term, suicidal. However, since it sounds like you're just occassionally spiking a bet that is 20x higher than your usual bet, your results per session are going to be very dependent on what happens during those few hands, so you're not getting a very large sample of hands played at the 20x bets to establish a trend.

Do you know BS for your game down cold?

Are you sure about that? I play in California and I’ve never seen a game that pays 5:2 for a BJ. There must be some catch.

That is not a reliable playing method. You don’t factor in the probability of the dealer having a high card and you don’t mention what kind of hole card strategy you use. You are probably making mistakes on two different levels. Making guesses like that will increase the house edge against you and cause you to lose more money. Just stick with basic strategy unless you know the correct count-based departures or can physically see the hole card (and know the proper hole card strategy).

Look for games with good rules and dealers that deal deep. Finding games with rules like double-after-split and late surrender will reduce the house edge if you know how to use them. Playing games with deep penetration will give you more high counts and more chances to play at an advantage. Learn which rules are good for the player and how much they change the house edge. That way you will know which rules are the most important to look for.

-Sonny-

This is a 1.5 to 1 payout, or a 2.5 for 1 payout.

Slot talk vs table talk


If a slot paid 3/2 it would be listed as 5/2 because you get your original bet back besides your win. Just like when you hit a pair JJ in VP, the machine says you won but really you pushed. This is the language of machines and I think our poster here is using this to expain getting a $7.50 win on a $5 bet.

ihate17