questions
- Thread starter KOLAN
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Betting a max bet of $60 I doubt you would ever need more than $2000 for 8 hours play. That would be a third of someones total BR most likely. Someone with a sim could check the odds of that happening I am sure base on an avg number of hands per hour assuming the rules aren't obscure.
They could also figure the estimated EV and guess what he would have in his pocket based on the game and spread if that is what you are looking for. Sorry I do my calcs manually or ask a good samaritan from this site to help me.
I will bite though:
Just completely guessing I would say the most likely scenario would be up about $120??
They could also figure the estimated EV and guess what he would have in his pocket based on the game and spread if that is what you are looking for. Sorry I do my calcs manually or ask a good samaritan from this site to help me.
I will bite though:
Just completely guessing I would say the most likely scenario would be up about $120??
"White Guy"
The way in which your question was framed, does not invite a "correct" answer.
I am inferring that your post is a question of calculating your RISK.
If your Max(imum) wager is $60 and you intend to play for (just) 8 hrs.
what is the likelihood that you will lose your $2,000 bankroll within the
stated time period ?
$2,000, hard as it is to imagine, can disappear within 8 hrs. if you are simply unlucky.
Splits and double downs contribute mightily in this regard.
If you are seeking just a quick,and approximate reply, I would be comfortable
in stating (just) that with about 33 "Max Bets" there is, in fact, a
substantial chance that you will be going home early with empty pockets.
If this is simply a "one-shot deal"; that is to say that the situation
refers to a plan for a single occurrence, and not a plan to
regularly play BJ with a $2000 bankroll, then a more detailed analysis of
your risk is needed. In simpler, less stilted language, what i am clumsily
trying to say is that you are obviously severely undercapitalized, but
for a one time excursion, you will probably escape unscathed.
If you have a modest BANKROLL of $2,000 you should not
even consider betting at this level on an ongoing basis.
Without sufficient data presented, I'd advice you to subscribe to some
"rules of thumb"; to wit, If your game is a 6 decker you would like to
have 100 times your Max bet $60 times 100 = $6.000. If the game is
an 8 decker that needs to be expanded to 120 Max bets ($7,200).
I apologize for my being far too long-winded.
Links to posts reflecting sage advice on "Risk-of-Ruin" would have been preferable.
The way in which your question was framed, does not invite a "correct" answer.
I am inferring that your post is a question of calculating your RISK.
If your Max(imum) wager is $60 and you intend to play for (just) 8 hrs.
what is the likelihood that you will lose your $2,000 bankroll within the
stated time period ?
$2,000, hard as it is to imagine, can disappear within 8 hrs. if you are simply unlucky.
Splits and double downs contribute mightily in this regard.
If you are seeking just a quick,and approximate reply, I would be comfortable
in stating (just) that with about 33 "Max Bets" there is, in fact, a
substantial chance that you will be going home early with empty pockets.
If this is simply a "one-shot deal"; that is to say that the situation
refers to a plan for a single occurrence, and not a plan to
regularly play BJ with a $2000 bankroll, then a more detailed analysis of
your risk is needed. In simpler, less stilted language, what i am clumsily
trying to say is that you are obviously severely undercapitalized, but
for a one time excursion, you will probably escape unscathed.
If you have a modest BANKROLL of $2,000 you should not
even consider betting at this level on an ongoing basis.
Without sufficient data presented, I'd advice you to subscribe to some
"rules of thumb"; to wit, If your game is a 6 decker you would like to
have 100 times your Max bet $60 times 100 = $6.000. If the game is
an 8 decker that needs to be expanded to 120 Max bets ($7,200).
I apologize for my being far too long-winded.
Links to posts reflecting sage advice on "Risk-of-Ruin" would have been preferable.
Whether the $2K is 100% of his total roll or 1% of his total roll, his risk of losing $2K over the next 8 hours is what it is and it is the same with any total roll.
Like you say, I can't imagine that risk is much greater than 0.0000%.
You just don't lose 400 units in 800 hands.
So he is extremely well-capitalized for the next 8 hours of play. Probably over-capitalized. He could probably spread $10 to $120 and still have a reasonable risk.
That's my simless guess anyway lol.
Like you say, I can't imagine that risk is much greater than 0.0000%.
You just don't lose 400 units in 800 hands.
So he is extremely well-capitalized for the next 8 hours of play. Probably over-capitalized. He could probably spread $10 to $120 and still have a reasonable risk.
That's my simless guess anyway lol.
if i gonna count and play like you i think i need 20000 to make profit 120 on a day. Better play roulette last time i make 20000 start from 200. risk of ruin is 100%. bet now i got 20000 /200 it is mean i got 100 times to re pit this .
only problem i like to play blackjack and no chance to make 20000 in black jack
sorry for my perfect english
only problem i like to play blackjack and no chance to make 20000 in black jack
sorry for my perfect english
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"Flash" I believe he was asking a simple Q just to invite some discussion and get a simple answer.. Maybe I am wrong but Again... I can count cards.. I have read at least a dozen books on the subject.. Am I an expert. NO.. Have I made $$.. YES... Do I rely on BJ for my income.. NO....
You may be a pro who is way more knowledgeable on the subject than I and I definitely will research this some more... And of course I have heard of 100 times BR for a 6 decker it has been mentioned in about every book I have read. Notice I said that is most likely a third of his BR in the post you responded to..
I appreciate the advice from anyone who is more knowledgeable than me on the subject which is a lot of people I am sure of that.. In my simless guess I have to stand by what I said based on what I know and agree with KASI and say it is pretty much impossible to loose $2000 while counting 8 hrs and betting a max bet of $60..
One thing I have learned in life is that acting like you know everything will not reciprocate the learning of anything. Again, thanks for all the help and advice on this site. I know I have learned a lot from people here and really do appreciate all points of view and opinions..
KOLAN... What is the answer for gods sake!! HAHAH..
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I threw these figures into a spreadsheet I've prepared, and on assuming a 1-12 spread on a 6 deck shoe game, US rules and assuming no playing errors the possibility of losing $2K came out towards the far end of three Std Devs -so it's possible, but unlikely (around a 1-2% RoR). This is an estimate - my spreadsheet is built for options of 1-8 (which was more than 3 SDs) and 1-16 (which was less). 1-12, one assumes, falls roughly in the middle somewhere.
Anyone have anything different?
Anyone have anything different?
The difference is that when you win a 24-number bet, you win 0.5x the amount you bet. When a blackjack player wins at a true count of +5 (44%), he or she wins 1.2x his or her bet.
The long-term strategy for roulette is the same as the short-term strategy for roulette, because the first four spins don't affect the fifth.
The long-term strategy for blackjack is different from the short-term strategy for blackjack, because the first four hands DO affect the fifth.
The long-term strategy for roulette is the same as the short-term strategy for roulette, because the first four spins don't affect the fifth.
The long-term strategy for blackjack is different from the short-term strategy for blackjack, because the first four hands DO affect the fifth.