Ready To Finally Buy A Sim.. Help??
- Thread starter White Guy
- Start date
Thanx for the correction.
I use a Mac and I simply hate running Windoze on my Mac, especially in emulation.
That leaves me without BJ Software of my own.
I often refer my collection of books by John Auston, entitled:
"The World's Greatest Blackjack Simulation"
I have the extensive sim data for K.O., Zen, A.O.II, and Red Seven
I use a Mac and I simply hate running Windoze on my Mac, especially in emulation.
That leaves me without BJ Software of my own.
I often refer my collection of books by John Auston, entitled:
"The World's Greatest Blackjack Simulation"
I have the extensive sim data for K.O., Zen, A.O.II, and Red Seven
It has been a while since I read the book and didn't soak all the Std Dev and win rate stuff in as well as I probably should have but is that where they get the numbers 2.15 and 27.79?? Here is an example of a trip ROR I did on the demo.
IE: Trip ROR
Bankroll 200
Win Rate 2.15
Std dev 27.79
Hands 500
ROR .073
This figure would depend largely on the game, spread... etc etc... but I found no where to enter it on this part of the software. Is that just a demo thing or is the full version better? Or is this calc just for???
Also, when figuring units I always just figured my min bet when playing a 6d for my manual calcs.. I suppose I must have read it somewhere to come up with it. But:
Say you're playing
SD at 100-400
Or DD @ 50-400
Or 6d @35-400
You would just use $50 units and be betting 2 at min SD or 1 at min DD or <1 at 6d??
IE: Trip ROR
Bankroll 200
Win Rate 2.15
Std dev 27.79
Hands 500
ROR .073
This figure would depend largely on the game, spread... etc etc... but I found no where to enter it on this part of the software. Is that just a demo thing or is the full version better? Or is this calc just for???
Also, when figuring units I always just figured my min bet when playing a 6d for my manual calcs.. I suppose I must have read it somewhere to come up with it. But:
Say you're playing
SD at 100-400
Or DD @ 50-400
Or 6d @35-400
You would just use $50 units and be betting 2 at min SD or 1 at min DD or <1 at 6d??
Well I was just replying to you when my cat sent me into outer space.
Yes, buy CVCX. It's a no-brainer lol. It'll do everytihing. I don't have it but I know it's the best lmao.
First of all it will calculate optimum bets for you as a starting point anyway.
Anyway, above, no you would not use $50 units for games 1 & 3. 100-400 is a 4 unit spread with $100 as a unit. With a $10K roll, you have a 100 unit roll. In game 3, it's a 1-11ish spread with a $35 unit. And a 300ish unit roll.
The sim will generate that win rate and SD stuff for you. It will force you to be specific when you tell what game and how you want to play it. No more of that wonging-out at -1 or -2 stuff lol. That's 2 sims lol.
People here will help you with what you're looking at after you get it lol.
edited to add that Trip stuff means you would take 200 min units on your trip. Probably it means your EV for whatever game it was is 2.15 min units per hour. The SD is 27 min units per hour.
The trip ror is a % so 0.073% if you play 500 hands on your trip. For that particular game you defined in the sim.
Yes, buy CVCX. It's a no-brainer lol. It'll do everytihing. I don't have it but I know it's the best lmao.
First of all it will calculate optimum bets for you as a starting point anyway.
Anyway, above, no you would not use $50 units for games 1 & 3. 100-400 is a 4 unit spread with $100 as a unit. With a $10K roll, you have a 100 unit roll. In game 3, it's a 1-11ish spread with a $35 unit. And a 300ish unit roll.
The sim will generate that win rate and SD stuff for you. It will force you to be specific when you tell what game and how you want to play it. No more of that wonging-out at -1 or -2 stuff lol. That's 2 sims lol.
People here will help you with what you're looking at after you get it lol.
edited to add that Trip stuff means you would take 200 min units on your trip. Probably it means your EV for whatever game it was is 2.15 min units per hour. The SD is 27 min units per hour.
The trip ror is a % so 0.073% if you play 500 hands on your trip. For that particular game you defined in the sim.
Last edited:
I see.. I guess I will just have to play with it for a while..
It still doesn't make sense to me on the example I posted earlier.
Essentially your ROR would be the same with the same max bet with- a $7000BR 200 $35 units- a $20,000 BR 200 $100 units... Or a $10,000 BR 200 $50 units...
But when figuring on ROR based on a total BR of 1000 max bets it would be about the same?? Without any mathamatics to back me up it just seems odd. I would understand there will be a difference with a trip roll ROR in multi vs pitch because in SD and DD games your getting the $$ out more often and also betting more when you have no advantage but 3x more BR for the same ROR over 500 hands seems like a lot to me. Or am I mistaking that the ROR would be about the the same with 1000 max bets on the three different games??
If I am not mistaking wouldn't that also mean that you would have a higher EV with the higher units even with a similar full BR ROR?? Since 1u an hour on the 6d would be 35 vs 100 on the SD??
If that is the case than I am retiring from 6d and sticking strictly to SD and DD!! HAHA I probably need to hit the books again.
Thanks For The Help.
It still doesn't make sense to me on the example I posted earlier.
Essentially your ROR would be the same with the same max bet with- a $7000BR 200 $35 units- a $20,000 BR 200 $100 units... Or a $10,000 BR 200 $50 units...
But when figuring on ROR based on a total BR of 1000 max bets it would be about the same?? Without any mathamatics to back me up it just seems odd. I would understand there will be a difference with a trip roll ROR in multi vs pitch because in SD and DD games your getting the $$ out more often and also betting more when you have no advantage but 3x more BR for the same ROR over 500 hands seems like a lot to me. Or am I mistaking that the ROR would be about the the same with 1000 max bets on the three different games??
If I am not mistaking wouldn't that also mean that you would have a higher EV with the higher units even with a similar full BR ROR?? Since 1u an hour on the 6d would be 35 vs 100 on the SD??
If that is the case than I am retiring from 6d and sticking strictly to SD and DD!! HAHA I probably need to hit the books again.
Thanks For The Help.
Last edited:
Well, chances are, the catch is, if bringing $7K with a $35 unit (200 units) and spreading 1-11ish, the other numbers of 2.15 win rate and 27 units SD would change too.
Your example is a Trip ROR calc. Those 200 units you bring are related to your total roll. If in game#1 you spread $100-$400 with a $10K roll, you only have a 100 unit roll so it's impossible to bring a 200 unit roll on a trip or otherwise lol. It exceeds the number of units you could bring on a trip.
You don't figure lifetime ROR based on number of max bets - at least I don't lol. That's why, even though all 3 of your examples have the same max bet, each game would likely have different EV's per hand and different SD per hand. Each of your spreads would likely have very different risks, EV's, SD's etc even though they would all have the same max bet. That 2.15 and 27 SD will change too.
It's why I just don't get these general "rules of thumb" based on max bets as if that will keep risk the same in very different games. It won't. Forget about it. It's complete crap. Utter nonsense. An urban myth.
Simply put, when you get your software, go ahead and run a sim for your examples with the same roll and see what, if anything, actually does change.
All ROR's, whether trip or lifetime, as near as I can tell, really, ultimately, only depend on EV and SD and their ratio to each other anyway. Maybe total units in roll for lifetime ROR. But you could have a 100000 unit lifetime roll and it won't effect how many units to take on a trip to obtain a desired risk - you'll have the same risk taking x units for so many hands no matter what your lifetime roll is. Maybe not technically true but close enough so don't worry about it. Makes sense doesn't it?
In 500 hands or whatever, your EV and SD will be what they will be in 500 hands. Bring 5 units of your 10000 unit roll, you'll probably lose it all in 500 hands. Bring 1000 units you never will in 500 hands. All the while, you have the same EV and SD per hand for the specified game. God can't change that.
But you can change how many units to bring on a trip or how many units you want to risk as a lifetime roll.
A sim can only do one game at a time. Change pen, change rules, change spread or even keep total spread the same but change when you bet how much within that spread, change counting sytem, change number of indexes you use, change how you calc a TC (round,floor etc), change whether it's based on whole decks or half-decks, change when you spread to multiple hands and/or how many hands if you feel you can, bet differently if maybe using cover betting so you don't suspiciously jump bets when the math calls for it, change whether you wongin at some count and always exit before some lower count, change playing off the top but only wong-out at some TC,
change how many players are at your table, change what happens if another counter happens to sit down and, what the heck, time to run another sim just because you can.
I mean you're going to have to tell the sim all that stuff in the first place ie understand the assumptions behind what you tell the sim to generate for you.
Then, after all that, you actually have to play as best you can according to what you told it so you can measure your results later against it. You play 10 different ways or games, make an effort to measure your results vs the sim you had in mind so when you finally do get some 7/8 shoe or some 5.5/6 shoe you know how to change your unit size and keep your risk the same.
You know, as best you can, lol. Don't include in those $1000 hands you bet and happened to win when way behind and it makes your EV look good and still think this crap works lmao.
And, oh yeah, I just talk the talk. I don't walk the walk like you do. So keep that in mind too lol.
But I love a guy with a $50K roll at a $5-$500 table lol. It's a great beginning.
Your example is a Trip ROR calc. Those 200 units you bring are related to your total roll. If in game#1 you spread $100-$400 with a $10K roll, you only have a 100 unit roll so it's impossible to bring a 200 unit roll on a trip or otherwise lol. It exceeds the number of units you could bring on a trip.
You don't figure lifetime ROR based on number of max bets - at least I don't lol. That's why, even though all 3 of your examples have the same max bet, each game would likely have different EV's per hand and different SD per hand. Each of your spreads would likely have very different risks, EV's, SD's etc even though they would all have the same max bet. That 2.15 and 27 SD will change too.
It's why I just don't get these general "rules of thumb" based on max bets as if that will keep risk the same in very different games. It won't. Forget about it. It's complete crap. Utter nonsense. An urban myth.
Simply put, when you get your software, go ahead and run a sim for your examples with the same roll and see what, if anything, actually does change.
All ROR's, whether trip or lifetime, as near as I can tell, really, ultimately, only depend on EV and SD and their ratio to each other anyway. Maybe total units in roll for lifetime ROR. But you could have a 100000 unit lifetime roll and it won't effect how many units to take on a trip to obtain a desired risk - you'll have the same risk taking x units for so many hands no matter what your lifetime roll is. Maybe not technically true but close enough so don't worry about it. Makes sense doesn't it?
In 500 hands or whatever, your EV and SD will be what they will be in 500 hands. Bring 5 units of your 10000 unit roll, you'll probably lose it all in 500 hands. Bring 1000 units you never will in 500 hands. All the while, you have the same EV and SD per hand for the specified game. God can't change that.
But you can change how many units to bring on a trip or how many units you want to risk as a lifetime roll.
A sim can only do one game at a time. Change pen, change rules, change spread or even keep total spread the same but change when you bet how much within that spread, change counting sytem, change number of indexes you use, change how you calc a TC (round,floor etc), change whether it's based on whole decks or half-decks, change when you spread to multiple hands and/or how many hands if you feel you can, bet differently if maybe using cover betting so you don't suspiciously jump bets when the math calls for it, change whether you wongin at some count and always exit before some lower count, change playing off the top but only wong-out at some TC,
change how many players are at your table, change what happens if another counter happens to sit down and, what the heck, time to run another sim just because you can.
I mean you're going to have to tell the sim all that stuff in the first place ie understand the assumptions behind what you tell the sim to generate for you.
Then, after all that, you actually have to play as best you can according to what you told it so you can measure your results later against it. You play 10 different ways or games, make an effort to measure your results vs the sim you had in mind so when you finally do get some 7/8 shoe or some 5.5/6 shoe you know how to change your unit size and keep your risk the same.
You know, as best you can, lol. Don't include in those $1000 hands you bet and happened to win when way behind and it makes your EV look good and still think this crap works lmao.
And, oh yeah, I just talk the talk. I don't walk the walk like you do. So keep that in mind too lol.
But I love a guy with a $50K roll at a $5-$500 table lol. It's a great beginning.
haha I need to learn some more talk and you should do some more walking...
I see what you mean though on the ROR.. The 1000 max bet thing I have heard a lot before but I am sure it assumes the game meets the standards that a counter would deem "playable".. Also, if you are betting $100 per hand in a play all situation as your min vs 40 there will be a difference for sure..
The concept I like and think I am going to go with is the trip roll per month. I have never really set aside a BR I always just figured how much I am going to play with and how I want to bet before I go to the casino or Vegas or wherever. I think what I am going to do once I have the time to do so is figure how many hours I am going to play per month, what game(s)... How much $$ I am going to have to play with... What an acceptable ROR is for that time period... And also what my likely EV would be... I am sure the sim can do all that because I have had people here figure it for me..
I am still very seriously considering the retiree team with me as the Big Bettor as well.. HAHA... As long as everyone can work for min wage and stick to a one alcoholic beverage per hour limit in order to stay somewhat sharp... :laugh:
I see what you mean though on the ROR.. The 1000 max bet thing I have heard a lot before but I am sure it assumes the game meets the standards that a counter would deem "playable".. Also, if you are betting $100 per hand in a play all situation as your min vs 40 there will be a difference for sure..
The concept I like and think I am going to go with is the trip roll per month. I have never really set aside a BR I always just figured how much I am going to play with and how I want to bet before I go to the casino or Vegas or wherever. I think what I am going to do once I have the time to do so is figure how many hours I am going to play per month, what game(s)... How much $$ I am going to have to play with... What an acceptable ROR is for that time period... And also what my likely EV would be... I am sure the sim can do all that because I have had people here figure it for me..
I am still very seriously considering the retiree team with me as the Big Bettor as well.. HAHA... As long as everyone can work for min wage and stick to a one alcoholic beverage per hour limit in order to stay somewhat sharp... :laugh:
OK - you learn to talk and I'll try to learn to walk as min wage retiree team member lol. We may have to negotiate the drink minimum - that's where I like to spread to multiple spots lol.
You know I was thinking mybe I shouldn't have said what CVCX does becasue I don't really know. Like when you said you found no where to enter it on this part of the software maybe you're right and it's mostly CVDATA that does the actual sims and where one could put in different betting strategies and customize alot of stuff. Maybe CVCX just uses a lot of charts from previously generated sims and if you want something that's not there (like spread at this count but not at this other count maybe) then it's just not there. Maybe CVCX is more for figuring out results from play vs the sim. I don't know. I've just seen the pictures people have posted here from time to time.
Like maybe CVCX couldn't even do your Big Bettor scenario?
Maybe others can comment. Maybe going to his website and reading what each product does might help you decide.
Or do the AP thing and take advantage of the package price lol. I think there's one maybe lol.
Hope I didn't mislead you.
You know I was thinking mybe I shouldn't have said what CVCX does becasue I don't really know. Like when you said you found no where to enter it on this part of the software maybe you're right and it's mostly CVDATA that does the actual sims and where one could put in different betting strategies and customize alot of stuff. Maybe CVCX just uses a lot of charts from previously generated sims and if you want something that's not there (like spread at this count but not at this other count maybe) then it's just not there. Maybe CVCX is more for figuring out results from play vs the sim. I don't know. I've just seen the pictures people have posted here from time to time.
Like maybe CVCX couldn't even do your Big Bettor scenario?
Maybe others can comment. Maybe going to his website and reading what each product does might help you decide.
Or do the AP thing and take advantage of the package price lol. I think there's one maybe lol.
Hope I didn't mislead you.
Thanks - I just wasn't sure.
I know you have the differences on your site.
Since they both run sims why one vs the other or which would you reommend to someone to buy first?
Anyway, I'm really here to ask if there's any chance you may have a bad link on your bjcolor site for Sect 10.3? Maybe it's just my computer lol.
No big deal, if there is a bad link, it was easy to guess the right one lol.
I know you have the differences on your site.
Since they both run sims why one vs the other or which would you reommend to someone to buy first?
Anyway, I'm really here to ask if there's any chance you may have a bad link on your bjcolor site for Sect 10.3? Maybe it's just my computer lol.
No big deal, if there is a bad link, it was easy to guess the right one lol.