Secret strategies

stophon · Feb 27, 2009

After reading some posts on this forum and some parts of blackbelt in bj, i have been wondering how powerful these "secret" strategies are that everyone seems to know about but cannot disclose publicly for fear of casino personnel seeing them.

So my question is, how powerful are these "secret" strategies? Are any of them as powerful as card counting? As universally applicable?

Sonny · Feb 27, 2009

Depending on the technique and situation, the advantages generally range from 3%-20%. The win rates are usually much higher than card counting but the opportunities are less frequent. Most of the techniques aren't really secret - they've been published but people are hesitant to discuss them in a public forum.

-Sonny-

stophon · Feb 28, 2009

20%! How the hell...?

I am new to this. But from what I've read seeing a dealers holecard is the most powerful advantage a player can get. It's something like 13% I think, how can you get 7% more on top of that?

shadroch · Feb 28, 2009

stophon said:

Hard work, eating vitamins and prayer.
What would you say my edge is if I have 250 $20 matchplays and bet only when accompanied by a MP?

jack.jackson · Feb 28, 2009

You ever heard of Zengrifters wheelchair strategy? Priceless!:laugh:

Katweezel · Feb 28, 2009

Facts are...

Sonny said:

Stophon talks about reading of seeing the dealers' hole card as giving the player a marked advantage. If this is the case, why not just play ENHC and always have the benefit of dealer cards being dealt face up? There is a suggestion that playing ENHC (such as the only style available in Australia) may be a more advantageous style for the player. Sonny, what are the facts, as you believe them to be? :cat:

stophon · Feb 28, 2009

shadroch said:

Oh, that makes some sense.

So most of the strategies have been discussed online, people just are hesitant to openly reveal everything for fear of casino personnel picking up on subtle tricks?

Such as how players better may see the hole card? I notice there seems to be alot of reservation when discussing hole card strategies.

itrack · Feb 28, 2009

Katweezel said:

well what good is seeing the hole card after you already played your hand?
I was actually playing a enhc game when i could see every card before it left the shoe, and it was actually tricky to make plays quickly becuase I had to think which hand it would benifit more, my two hands or the dealers. It seems like common sense but it is actually a bit tricky, especially because getting a lot of practice at this is pretty uncommon

C-SMith · Feb 28, 2009

stophon said:

Of course if you have a "secret" strategy that you may have been working on for years. Would you really want it left in a public place for someone to find
to use it and abuse it?

If you find a good technique of course your going to want to keep it to
yourself. As for me attacking CSMs with *very* (emphasized) satisfactory
results, would I want my techniques posted in a forum where casino personnel
will find and frown upon, and maybe even look for that technique to be played? I don't think so... If I find something good i'm going to exploit it, let the other mugs do their job while I wait to jump in with the opportunity of making it big.

It's all about this cat and mouse game, and the mouse has just gotten a
little smarter on how to get the cheese. After all what is making a little
bread to go with the little bit of cheese you just caught!

Keep working on it, I know you will get it sooner or later!

** What happends in the past will affect what's going to happen in the future!

Sucker · Feb 28, 2009

stophon said:

Virtually ALL of them are more powerful than card counting. Otherwise; what would be the sense of keeping them secret. And, as Sonny points out; they are very rarely universal, usually being dependent upon certain conditions arising. Oftentimes you only get one bet down before it's time to leave the casino.

As for how powerful they are, advantages of 50% are not at all uncommon. I have a good friend who plays the 50% advantage game for a living. He gets in an average of five bets/day.

100%-150% advantages (lock) are possible but quite rare. I was in Monte Carlo about 15 years ago, and stood behind a table for two hours. Finally, I tracked a players blackjack & bet the limit of $2000 on the player's hand. (This is permitted in many places in Europe.) Within 5 minutes I was escorted out of the casino. So as you see, there are drawbacks to almost all of the advanced techniques.

There are actually some side bet situations where you can obtain an advantage of 300% and more, but you're lucky if you get out of the casino without being barred.

Bear in mind that the move's I've hinted at so far involve a MASSIVE amount of skill and NO cheating or otherwise illegal means. If you want to include cheating....... I once witnessed a play where the team beat the Trump Marina out of $150,000 in one shoe (dealer involvement). After the dealer got his cut, he went out & bought $15K worth of coke and got busted. After intense questioning, the authorities found out where he got the money. He turned state's evidence in return for leniency on the drug charges. All the
players on the team did a substantial length of time in the pokey. I wouldn't recommend or reveal cheating strategies to ANYONE, out of fear that they might be foolish enough to TRY it.

Katweezel · Mar 1, 2009

Gambler's fallacy

CSMith's signature:
"** What happends in the past will affect what's going to happen in the future!"
Interesting philosophical signature, CS. But it collides with the dogma of Gambler's Fallacy; which is a chapter by itself in the accepted bible here. As for me personally, I agree 100% with you, mate. :cat:

creeping panther · Mar 1, 2009

Stop

stophon said:

Yes, indeed plenty of secret strategys and tactics and thankfully no one has yet spilled their guts on this site.

To learn many of those secrets one must apply and then be permitted to attend the exclusive "09 BJ Bash" held this summer in a super secret location.

:grin:

, Sage, CP, ST, and Trey dog 999.

CP

stophon · Mar 2, 2009

Well from what I understood you all were very helpful, thankyou.

I still have to master counting before I get into all the advanced stuff, it is interesting to know that it all exists though.

moo321 · Mar 2, 2009

Sucker said:

Virtually ALL of them are more powerful than card counting. Otherwise; what would be the sense of keeping them secret. And, as Sonny points out; they are very rarely universal, usually being dependent upon certain conditions arising. Oftentimes you only get one bet down before it's time to leave the casino.

As for how powerful they are, advantages of 50% are not at all uncommon. I have a good friend who plays the 50% advantage game for a living. He gets in an average of five bets/day.

100%-150% advantages (lock) are possible but quite rare. I was in Monte Carlo about 15 years ago, and stood behind a table for two hours. Finally, I tracked a players blackjack & bet the limit of $2000 on the player's hand. (This is permitted in many places in Europe.) Within 5 minutes I was escorted out of the casino. So as you see, there are drawbacks to almost all of the advanced techniques.

There are actually some side bet situations where you can obtain an advantage of 300% and more, but you're lucky if you get out of the casino without being barred.

Bear in mind that the move's I've hinted at so far involve a MASSIVE amount of skill and NO cheating or otherwise illegal means. If you want to include cheating....... I once witnessed a play where the team beat the Trump Marina out of $150,000 in one shoe (dealer involvement). After the dealer got his cut, he went out & bought $15K worth of coke and got busted. After intense questioning, the authorities found out where he got the money. He turned state's evidence in return for leniency on the drug charges. All the
players on the team did a substantial length of time in the pokey. I wouldn't recommend or reveal cheating strategies to ANYONE, out of fear that they might be foolish enough to TRY it.

You're lucky they didn't arrest you in Monte Carlo...

Sucker · Mar 3, 2009

moo321 said:

You are exactly right. I've since learned of other people who HAVE been arrested in that country, although they were later released once the casino realized that they had NO evidence of illegal activity. As we all know, some places are quicker than others when it comes to pulling the trigger.

Martin Gayle · Mar 3, 2009

stophon said:

The most powerful advantage is to find a dealer that makes lots of mistakes in payments, hand counting, etc. You have 100% advantage on every dealer. Not correcting a dealer's error is not criminal but making the dealer incur an error may be illegal.

Holecarding + next carding will give you an advantage well over 20%. Playing strategy for holecarding is fairly simple and is in print and can be found on the Wizard of Odds website. Next carding is a little more involved as nextcarding usually involves either a gross dealer error, advanced technique or flat out cheating. But the basic idea is to give the dealer a X as a third card. ie) if you know the next card is a X make the dealer draw it to their own hand unless you can double for 20 or 21.

Cutting to an ace or steering a X will also give you an advantage in or above the 20% range. This is almost the same as next carding but involves a very, very astute skill where the margin for error is low and most card counters never take the time to learn.

HarryKuntz · Mar 3, 2009

The best tip to offer....

.......Keep your eyes open, many opportunities will come and go, spotting when and how to take advantage is the key.

Billy C1 · Mar 3, 2009

HarryKuntz said:

No argument with that statement. If you find something that works AND is legal, use it profusely.
Probably not many things fit that description other than counting, on a fairly consistent basis.

Billy C1

callipygian · Mar 4, 2009

Sonny said:

If you're playing waiting bets, do you calculate EV per unit bet at advantage, EV per unit bet per hand seen, or EV per unit played per hand?

For example, if you flat bet the table minimum for an hour (100 units, -0.5 unit EV) to assure yourself of a blackjack at table max (100 units, +150 unit EV), do you consider this to be 150% EV (+150/100), 1.5% EV (+150/100/100, or 0.75% EV (+150/200/100)?

Sonny · Mar 4, 2009

callipygian said:

I was thinking in terms or hourly win rates. Using your example, if a player expects to earn 150 units in an hour with 200 units in action then his win rate is 150 units and his advantage is (+150/200) 75%. If he has to wait for 3 hours before making that big bet then his win rate drops to (+150/3) 50 units and his advantage drops to (+150/400/3) 12.5%. However, if the player is just observing for those 3 hours and not playing then his win rate is still 50 units and his advantage becomes 50%.

I prefer to use hourly win rates since many advanced techniques require some form of “set-up time" or "waiting time" that costs the player time and/or money. It gives you a better idea of how much your time will be worth. The numbers in my previous post are a bit conservative because of this. It’s not hard to get a big advantage, but it’s usually not consistent either.

-Sonny-

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