Just a Run of Luck or what?

[TheDragon]

Hi Everyone...I have been visiting this forum for a few months and decided it was time to register. Anyway, I have been having a freakish string of Blackjack winning sessions. Mind you, I am not a counter (yet) but do play flawless basic strategy as I have been playing blackjack for over 15 years. I usually visit the local casino 4-6 times a month with a modest bankroll of $400for each session. I play on $15 or $25 min. tables and rarely bet past $50 a hand. The past 14 visits have been winning sessions with profits of $200 to $600 per for a total of $3800. Now, during this time I have gotten down to my last bet twice on two seperate occasions but managed to pull out of the hole and into a positive money making session. Have any of you guys ever experienced a similar run like this with or without counting? Is variance going to catch up to me eventually? I know you guys are going to tell me that I need to learn to count to make it in the long run...will start working on that. I do figure that I am down for my blackjack playing 15 years but not thousands and thousands (maybe just a couple, LOL). Oh, I had a first the other night--Dealer had 6 up...I was on a hard 14...Guy next to me had $100 bet and was sitting on Blackjack...Guy says "Do you mind if I double-down?" Table collectively groans...He does and hits face card for 21...Dealer flips for 16 and hits face card for bust...So all was well!.....Look forward to learning more about counting and counting techniques from you guys...thanks

[PrinceDragon]

Welcome to the Forum.

First thing first:Please space out your post so everyone can read it easily(You know Flash has some trouble with his eye,I'll prob have the same problem if i keep reading posts like that)

P.D.

[PrinceDragon]

Have any of you guys ever experienced a similar run like this with or without counting?

See image below.That happened 1 months after i started,caught a positive swing right off the bat. +2 SD on the right side

Is variance going to catch up to me eventually?

Inevitably... It catch up to me, why are you so special

P.D.

[Johnrfla]

Originally Posted by TheDragon

Now, during this time I have gotten down to my last bet twice on two seperate occasions but managed to pull out of the hole and into a positive money making session. Have any of you guys ever experienced a similar run like this with or without counting?

Greetings,

I once had a encounter simular. I was at a 50.00 table went through a 1,000 pretty quick.She then had to shuffle '6d' I placed out my last 50 and began to get black jacks won several double down hands etc. I even split a pair of 10s against the dealers 6.The I got real bold and placed out 200.00 only to get a pair of 8s against the dealers 7. I wind up spliting 3 more 8 and got 2s and 3s which I doubled down on them.I had close to 2,000. The dealer flipped the card and it was a 3 and my heart sank lol she then drew a 6 and a 10. at the end of the shoe I counted my blessings and colored in 5600.00 which made me a real happy camper.
I myself and practicing counting but my biggest issue is getting distracted.

[Thunder]

Yeah I've had runs like that befre but variance is a b-tch and will come looking for you eventually. I once was down to may last $10, placed it on red at the roulette table won, then went to the bj table and kept winning, turning it into $160 so you never know when you may encounter winning/losing streaks.

[matt21]

Originally Posted by TheDragon

Hi Everyone...I have been visiting this forum for a few months and decided it was time to register. Anyway, I have been having a freakish string of Blackjack winning sessions. Mind you, I am not a counter (yet) but do play flawless basic strategy as I have been playing blackjack for over 15 years. I usually visit the local casino 4-6 times a month with a modest bankroll of $400for each session. I play on $15 or $25 min. tables and rarely bet past $50 a hand. The past 14 visits have been winning sessions with profits of $200 to $600 per for a total of $3800. Now, during this time I have gotten down to my last bet twice on two seperate occasions but managed to pull out of the hole and into a positive money making session. Have any of you guys ever experienced a similar run like this with or without counting? Is variance going to catch up to me eventually? I know you guys are going to tell me that I need to learn to count to make it in the long run...will start working on that. I do figure that I am down for my blackjack playing 15 years but not thousands and thousands (maybe just a couple, LOL). Oh, I had a first the other night--Dealer had 6 up...I was on a hard 14...Guy next to me had $100 bet and was sitting on Blackjack...Guy says "Do you mind if I double-down?" Table collectively groans...He does and hits face card for 21...Dealer flips for 16 and hits face card for bust...So all was well!.....Look forward to learning more about counting and counting techniques from you guys...thanks

yes variance will catch you. you are playing a negative EV game. its only a matter of time.

[EasyRhino]

It's probably just pure randomness, but you may be playing with your bets or session timing such that you're more likely to leave with small wins, at the tradeoff of fewer, larger, losses.

[nottooshabby]

This was many years ago, before I knew what the hell I was doing and began to study the game . . . I was once down to my last green chip of a $300 buy-in (yes, that's all I was willing to risk at the time per "session" . . . had no concept of bankroll, RoR, etc) and, being superstitious, changed tables. I told the guy next to me I was down to my last $25, and he said "Well, you never know, you might win the next ten hands in a row!"

I won the first four hands, turned to him and said, "Okay, let's see what happens the next six hands." I ended up winning four of them, so he wasn't too far off! Stuck around until I was $325 up

[callipygian]

Not mine, but a pretty good "last chip" story:

My friend was in Tahoe on New Year's Eve with his absurdly hot girlfriend (as in "something must be wrong with her if she agreed to go out with me" hot) who really wanted to see him gamble. The absolute lowest limit he could find was $25, so he decided he would play 3 hands, doubling his money if he won and quitting if he lost all three. (This is at a time when we were generally $3-$5 bettors, so $25 may have been the biggest bet of his life on its own.)

He bought in for $25 (cue laughter here) and won the first hand, which was pretty much cause for celebration by itself. Nervously, he stacked up his two-chip bet, and won the second. The whole table was pretty happy and his girlfriend was jumping up and down (the two were probably correlated). He pushed all-in into the betting circle and won a third time. High-fives and hugs all around, etc, etc. My friend started to pull his bet back, but his girlfriend asked, "You're not going to quit now, are you?"

As he described it, he was standing there with enough money to cover half the trip, and his girlfriend wants him to keep playing an EV negative game until he busts ... on the other hand, boobs. He decided to pocket $100 and put the other $100 back in play, pocketing the winnings until he lost. He won a fourth hand ... and then a fifth ... and then a sixth. He now had, literally, half a month's salary in his pocket.

Finally, his girlfriend relented, and he cashed out with a purple chip. He said it was one of the moments in his life where he wished there was a sound track playing - walking away from a cheering $25 table with $500 in his pocket and a girl who was far out of his league on his arm.