This Really Hurts - Are 8D Games Beatable?

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DonR

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
I know most of you will say it's all variance, and normal ups and downs of the game, but this still hurts.

My "normal" sessions end up in winning 10-15 units, or losing 20-30 units, having more winning, than losing sessions. So, I would expect to be slightly up, in the overall picture.

However, it is those rare opportunities, with very high counts, where I'm getting killed, every single time. Those are the shoes which make my overall results negative.

In 8D games, usually with 75% pen, and crowded tables, I do not see too many hands with very high counts. Most shoes, if they go into the positive counts at all, are usually around +1, or +2. Those I can live with, 1 or 2 betting units, win or lose, not a big deal. It is those shoes where the TC reaches values of +4, 5, or higher, that we all hope for, and those are the ones that have destroyed most of my BR so far.

In the last 5 months of playing (around 40 sessions), I've had these opportunities, with exceptionally "good" counts 4 or 5 times. I was doing what I was supposed to do, pushing out my highest bets, and I got killed every single time. The losses I made on these few shoes completely wiped out all the other smaller gains, from weeks of play. These few shoes only generated around -200 units. If only I won one of these rides, I'd feel a bit better, but I lost them all.

Is this just bad luck, or is it actually the combination of poor 8D games and crowded tables that are killing me?
 
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callipygian

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
it's all variance, and normal ups and downs of the game

Eight decks games at 75% are beatable, but you need a large spread to do it if you won't Wong (and if tables are crowded, you probably can't Wong). And large spreads mean huge variances. How long are your sessions? What's your betting ramp?

Keep in mind that just because a game is beatable doesn't mean it's worth your time. If you get tired of playing 50 hands/hr for measly win rates, consider saving up some money, making a trip to a really good gambling destination, and then playing better games there.
 
M

matt21

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
hi don,
it sounds as if your results are just down to variance not due to crowded tables or 8D. Well the 8D is part of the reason.

You remember that even at high counts you only have a slight advantage - thus again you will need to tread through a large amount of high count situations to stand a good chance of coming out ahead.

You said that you ahve only encountered a high count situation 4-5 times. It is quite possible to come out losing 4-5 consecutive times (just like getting 5 tails on coin flips). If you were playing 6D, 4D or less you would experience high count situations more often and thus in the long-run come out winning for those high count situations. When I played 4D and 6D, i get a +6 in most sessions (79-83 pen on 6D, 75-79 pen on 4D)

If you run a sim to assess the distribution of frequency of high counts for both 8D and 4D you will see that a +6 TC is going to occur far more frequently in a 8D game, thus it will take you far longer to get into the 'long run'. i agree that you should seek better playing conditions to get a better return on your investment of time and money.
 
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johndoe

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Nothing wrong with 8D per se (many are better than 6D), but 75% pen is lousy, and you'll need to be pretty aggressive with spreading (and Wonging if possible). But your results are not too unusual. It does sting but losses like this will happen sometimes.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
DonR said:
I However, it is those rare opportunities, with very high counts, where I'm getting killed, every single time.
Click to expand...
These happen in negative count / min bet situations too, but since you're betting much less, they aren't memorable.

But as you alluded to, you've only had 4-5 of these runaway counts... it's very possibly that you could be on the unlucky side and have them all turn out poorly for you.
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
#8
#8
DonR said:
I know most of you will say it's all variance, and normal ups and downs of the game, but this still hurts.

My "normal" sessions end up in winning 10-15 units, or losing 20-30 units, having more winning, than losing sessions. So, I would expect to be slightly up, in the overall picture.

However, it is those rare opportunities, with very high counts, where I'm getting killed, every single time. Those are the shoes which make my overall results negative.

In 8D games, usually with 75% pen, and crowded tables, I do not see too many hands with very high counts. Most shoes, if they go into the positive counts at all, are usually around +1, or +2. Those I can live with, 1 or 2 betting units, win or lose, not a big deal. It is those shoes where the TC reaches values of +4, 5, or higher, that we all hope for, and those are the ones that have destroyed most of my BR so far.

In the last 5 months of playing (around 40 sessions), I've had these opportunities, with exceptionally "good" counts 4 or 5 times. I was doing what I was supposed to do, pushing out my highest bets, and I got killed every single time. The losses I made on these few shoes completely wiped out all the other smaller gains, from weeks of play. These few shoes only generated around -200 units. If only I won one of these rides, I'd feel a bit better, but I lost them all.

Is this just bad luck, or is it actually the combination of poor 8D games and crowded tables that are killing me?
Click to expand...
-200 units is nothing. I've lost that is one session, many times. This is why we need large bankrolls. It seems unfair, but the only thing you can do about it is keep your betting level low enough relative to your assets so you don't notice the losses. The 8D has nothing to do with it and in fact if you are going to have bad variance you'll notice it more on a 4D or 6D game because you're seeing more good counts in a shorter period of time, and you get fewer hands at the good counts when they do come along.
 
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DonR

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
matt21 said:
If you were playing 6D, 4D or less you would experience high count situations more often and thus in the long-run come out winning for those high count situations.
Click to expand...
That's what I meant about these 8 deckers. It takes forever to get into these slightly favourable high count situations, and then if luck is not on your side, you generate enormous losses, that are so hard to recover from.

I know that 8D games are mathematically beatable, with proper spreading and/or Wonging, but in real life it is not an easy goal. Especially when you're limited to only a few casinos, with not too many tables to choose from. Unfortunately, there are no good games anywhere close to me.

Oh well...right now I'm down, but I'm definitely not out. :)
 
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