The Redcoat Gambit for avoiding backoffs

[Automatic Monkey]

Most of us who are too familiar with being backed off games have noticed it tends to happen when we are down and rarely happens when we are up. Maybe the pit is applying ploppy math and believes they can beat us that way. Maybe they feel it demoralizes us. Or maybe they have decided it is easier to explain away to their bosses a few large hits from a few counters than a lot of smaller hits from a lot of counters. Either way, if it's predictable behavior from the house, it's exploitable.

Legend has it the Redcoats wore their red uniforms to keep the enemy from knowing when they've been hit. It makes sense, because then if one falls to the ground you don't know if he's mortally wounded or just getting into the prone position for the next volley, and if you try a bayonet charge thinking you now have a numerical advantage you might be in for an unpleasant surprise.

So suppose we took measures to keep the house from knowing when we are down, for example, by beginning our session with a large stash of hidden greens and quietly replacing any losses we take- ratholing in reverse. If they are waiting for us to lose half our buy-in so they can tap us out of the game, they might be waiting a long time, long enough for us to get a lot more EV in. The only drawback I can see to this is being hassled at cashout, especially if we are backed off, they won't be able to verify that we won those chips at the table and we could end up with a cashout problem. Unlikely they would react that way over green chips, but you never know.

Other thoughts: limiting losses relative to buy-in during a shift to avert the backoff and facilitate coming back next time. Or perhaps changing our betting structure during a session- maybe take a chance on overbetting as soon as we sit down and on good days, build up a win that will cause us to be allowed to sit and play for our normal EV for a long time. Or maybe the other way around- small bets and spread to begin with and in sessions where we are up quickly increase the spread to increase EV. These are just ideas I'm throwing out to discuss, and I haven't really explored the theory of any of them yet.

[chichow]

AM

but wouldn't the pit critter know how many greens are already in his tray?

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

Most of us who are too familiar with being backed off games have noticed it tends to happen when we are down and rarely happens when we are up.

Couldn't this be very easily explained by the fact that many people will leave voluntarily when they are up, thus, most involuntary stoppages happen when they are down?

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by callipygian

Couldn't this be very easily explained by the fact that many people will leave voluntarily when they are up, thus, most involuntary stoppages happen when they are down?

Not in my case. Most of my backoffs have come after a rough start and and the PC comes over with a grin and tells me to get out. Others have told me similar. Generally I don't leave when I'm up unless that's what I had planned on to begin with.

[Finn Dog]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

Not in my case. Most of my backoffs have come after a rough start and and the PC comes over with a grin and tells me to get out. Others have told me similar. Generally I don't leave when I'm up unless that's what I had planned on to begin with.

Monk: curious, have the majority of those back offs come despite limiting your sessions to 45 minutes to an hour (that is, not playing to get even and perhaps overstaying)?

[EasyRhino]

I like the name of the strategy, but otherwise, I'd still lean towards conventional ratholing. Especially if playing rated. For hit an run unrated sessions... well, it may not matter?

If you think a backoff is imminent, then I'd really try to avoid any shenanigans that would cause a tie up at the cashier, too.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

So suppose we took measures to keep the house from knowing when we are down, for example, by beginning our session with a large stash of hidden greens and quietly replacing any losses we take- ratholing in reverse.

A plan like that might backfire. If you are supplementing your bankroll with chips from your pocket then you will appear to have larger wins and fewer losing sessions. If you buy in for $500, lose it and continue to play with another $500 from your pocket then the pit will think that you only had $500 to start with. If you color up for $1k they will think that you won $500 but you actually broke even. If they notice that you win almost every session (even though you are actually losing or breaking even on many of them) they might get suspicious.

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

If they are waiting for us to lose half our buy-in so they can tap us out of the game, they might be waiting a long time, long enough for us to get a lot more EV in.

The technique is completely dependent on that "if" part. If the pit recognizes you as an "undesireable" I would think they would have you removed no matter what your bankroll looked like. If you are a known winner, I don't think they would let you stick around in hopes that you'll start losing since it is more likely that you will continue to win more. That's just my assumption, and casinos are not known for using logic so I suppose I am probably wrong.

"A dealer once told me that since a pit boss doesn't use one, a brain is considered a device under Nevada law." -JG

-Sonny-

[bj bob]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

Most of us who are too familiar with being backed off games have noticed it tends to happen when we are down and rarely happens when we are up. Maybe the pit is applying ploppy math and believes they can beat us that way. Maybe they feel it demoralizes us. Or maybe they have decided it is easier to explain away to their bosses a few large hits from a few counters than a lot of smaller hits from a lot of counters. Either way, if it's predictable behavior from the house, it's exploitable.

I think the inherent problem you have, Monk is "stature". In that I'm more personally familiar with you I can say that you have a hard time "blending in" in a casino environment. I takes me about 11 seconds to pick you out in a crowded casino. That being said, the only suggestion I can make would be to get a hold of someone like Sonny who has Hollywood connections and maybe his producer buddies can come up with a new reality show entitled Monkey Makeover. A new hair style, some bling and a 6"-8" height lop might do wonders for your EV. Not to mention the groupies!

So suppose we took measures to keep the house from knowing when we are down, for example, by beginning our session with a large stash of hidden greens and quietly replacing any losses we take- ratholing in reverse. If they are waiting for us to lose half our buy-in so they can tap us out of the game, they might be waiting a long time, long enough for us to get a lot more EV in. The only drawback I can see to this is being hassled at cashout, especially if we are backed off, they won't be able to verify that we won those chips at the table and we could end up with a cashout problem. Unlikely they would react that way over green chips, but you never know.

You might have something there, however I would think that reverse rat holing blacks would be a lot easier since just 2 or 3 would do. You can even slip them in your stack by sliding them out of a black pack of smokes next to you pile. At the cage though, you may want to re-rathole what you've added so you're not clocked out with a gain.