Replenishable Roll Additions

W

White Guy

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
Playing 100 hours Max. Per Month:

Start 10k add 5k a month win or lose
Bet like I have 30k

When I have 30k bet like I have 60k

When I have 60k bet like 100k??


I have done a search on this subject and read a few other articles as well.
Would This be an acceptable approach? What would My ROR and such be??

Any thoughts??

Thanks
 
C

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
White Guy said:
What would My ROR and such be??
Click to expand...
The way that you've phrased your question, your ROR should be the same. Let me elaborate by taking a step back.

Your betting ramp, ROR, and bankroll are mathematically linked. That is, if you know two of these, you can mathematically calculate the third. Without going into exactly how to do this, one thing which needs to be established (and presumably you've already done this) is to know the bankroll required for a certain betting ramp and a certain ROR already. That is, you've taken a betting ramp and an ROR you're comfortable with, and calculated the bankroll you need.

That being said, as any one of those three numbers change, there are two independent ways of balancing the equation. For example, if you want to increase your betting ramp, you either need a higher ROR or a larger bankroll, or a combination of both.

With a replenishable bankroll, it's even more complex.

(a) One way to look at it is the way you've done - transform your "actual" bankroll into an "equivalent" bankroll. You can then resize your bets OR lower your ROR. Since you're resizing your bets proportionally to your bankroll, your ROR necessarily stays the same in the example you provided. Alternatively, you can keep betting the way you do with your "actual" bankroll and have a lower ROR. (Or some combination of both.)

(b) The other way, which makes more sense to me because of the way I've set up my equations but may be confusing to others, is to include replenishment as part of EV, not the bankroll. Using this method is the way to calculate that "equivalent" bankroll - presumably you've done this already if you already have your "equivalent" bankroll numbers.
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
White Guy said:
Playing 100 hours Max. Per Month:

Start 10k add 5k a month win or lose
Bet like I have 30k

When I have 30k bet like I have 60k

When I have 60k bet like 100k??


I have done a search on this subject and read a few other articles as well.
Would This be an acceptable approach? What would My ROR and such be??

Any thoughts??

Thanks
Click to expand...
Well, this is probably out of my league but I'm attaching a sheet on an article about this subject in case you may have not wandered across it in your research.

There are things I don't really get about the article. Like why he suggests a Kelly factor of 0.7071 for a 5% RoR when I get more like 0.6676. But when I use my number, I get his number lol.

I don't know why he calls the number of rounds to double roll "N 0" since it sounds so much like "N0" to me. I assume, whatever he wants to name the variable, it actually probably means the number of rounds to double roll.

Ultimately, one would still need a sim to figure out the number of rounds to double roll.

So, maybe when/if reaching 30K and choosing to bet to a 60K roll, the number of rounds to double that $30K roll will obviously be alot different than they were with a $10K roll originally since you only make so much a round in the first place. Unless of course you change your $units, if you see what I mean.

Column B duplicates his assumed numbers. Column C is for you to put your own stuff in.

In other words, as usual, it would assume you play the same game consistently. If you play alot of different games or ways, you may want to run a sim for that scenario too.

You say 100 hrs max. Maybe that means you assume 10,000 hands/month.
The formula assumes, as you can see, your "virtual roll" is added to in increments of x$/round.

Maybe you can at least use it to establish ranges anyway to get a range of $roll to bet to.

If you specify the game you anticipate playing playing most often, as a start anyway, maybe I could use some table from Don's book that could put a more real-life flavor to it. If you keep it simple lol. Or furnish a sim if you want for whatever assumptions you want. That would be better obviously.

But, heck, $10K replenishable by $5K/month sounds very doable to me lol.
Not fully understanding all this stuff anyway, and being the Cowardly Lion I am, I'd just wait 2-3 months and play to a $25K roll I actually have with probably an ROR so low that even l, maybe even The Wise One, would have absolutely no problem with.

And then, I was thinking the other day about your "replenishable roll" question, believe it or not, and was thinking there's always the "Hail Mary" roll that may have it's merits for a guy like you lol. That's where you wait until the last few hours of a trip and, if you still have alot of your original trip roll left, and if you don't really give much of a crap about losing it all o0r a hefty portion of it, you can greatly increase your $spread because, after all, you can only lose so much in the next 3 hours anyway.

I do it all the time, you know on my 2 trips a year somehwere, and after 5 days of betting $5, start betting like a crazy guy. Now tell me why it is, when I have to catch my plane, I say screw it, bet $200 and it always ends up one of those split-to-3-hands and double 2 of them and there I am with no DepenZ lmao.
 

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W

White Guy

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
When including replinishment as part of your EV do you mean take your estimated EV say $50hr and are replinishing $5000 per month based on 100 hours per month your new EV would be $100 hr??

In my original Q when I said betting like I had " " I meant like you stated.. Betting with an acceptable ROR for that higher BR.

I should have rephrased:
If I spread 25-300 in example 1 is my starting BR and addition enough to figure ROR to be the same as it would be with 30k based on the number of hours (80-100) I want to play??

And in example two 30k vs 60k spread (50-600??)

Example three 60k play like 100k spread (75-900??)

Thats what I am wondering or should it be altered to keep the ROR the same?? Is 5k a month regardless of win or loose enough to keep this formula going with the low ROR??

Thanks
 
W

White Guy

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Kasi said:
Well, this is probably out of my league but I'm attaching a sheet on an article about this subject in case you may have not wandered across it in your research.

There are things I don't really get about the article. Like why he suggests a Kelly factor of 0.7071 for a 5% RoR when I get more like 0.6676. But when I use my number, I get his number lol.

I don't know why he calls the number of rounds to double roll "N 0" since it sounds so much like "N0" to me. I assume, whatever he wants to name the variable, it actually probably means the number of rounds to double roll.

Ultimately, one would still need a sim to figure out the number of rounds to double roll.

So, maybe when/if reaching 30K and choosing to bet to a 60K roll, the number of rounds to double that $30K roll will obviously be alot different than they were with a $10K roll originally since you only make so much a round in the first place. Unless of course you change your $units, if you see what I mean.

Column B duplicates his assumed numbers. Column C is for you to put your own stuff in.

In other words, as usual, it would assume you play the same game consistently. If you play alot of different games or ways, you may want to run a sim for that scenario too.

You say 100 hrs max. Maybe that means you assume 10,000 hands/month.
The formula assumes, as you can see, your "virtual roll" is added to in increments of x$/round.

Maybe you can at least use it to establish ranges anyway to get a range of $roll to bet to.

If you specify the game you anticipate playing playing most often, as a start anyway, maybe I could use some table from Don's book that could put a more real-life flavor to it. If you keep it simple lol. Or furnish a sim if you want for whatever assumptions you want. That would be better obviously.

But, heck, $10K replenishable by $5K/month sounds very doable to me lol.
Not fully understanding all this stuff anyway, and being the Cowardly Lion I am, I'd just wait 2-3 months and play to a $25K roll I actually have with probably an ROR so low that even l, maybe even The Wise One, would have absolutely no problem with.

And then, I was thinking the other day about your "replenishable roll" question, believe it or not, and was thinking there's always the "Hail Mary" roll that may have it's merits for a guy like you lol. That's where you wait until the last few hours of a trip and, if you still have alot of your original trip roll left, and if you don't really give much of a crap about losing it all o0r a hefty portion of it, you can greatly increase your $spread because, after all, you can only lose so much in the next 3 hours anyway.

I do it all the time, you know on my 2 trips a year somehwere, and after 5 days of betting $5, start betting like a crazy guy. Now tell me why it is, when I have to catch my plane, I say screw it, bet $200 and it always ends up one of those split-to-3-hands and double 2 of them and there I am with no DepenZ lmao.
Click to expand...
HAHA good stuff.. Thanks..

I wil definitely have to research this further to get a better understanding..

Basically I was planning on starting out playing 6d s17 es Las Vegas style spreading 25-300 once I reach 30k from winning and contributions spread 50-600 and so on until I reach 100-150k hopefully and just play from there no more contributions.. I would like my ROR to stay the same as it would on a whole roll of 30 60 120 etc... Which should be less than 5%..

The adding to the roll replinishable method makes it easier to detatch from the $$ and play with zero emotion since it is a smaller BR.. I know same but different but I guess I am weird.

Thanks
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
First, a generic word of caution, all your examples so far seem to assume that you win, Generally, a safer assumption is to assume that you lose.

Now, as a basic dumb thing, let's say you dedicate $5k per month, for one year. At the start your BR is only $5k, but your "equivalent" bankroll is $60k so you bet like you have $60k.

Now let's say you win $30k. Super. But 6 months have elapsed, so your replenishment window has decreased. So at best, you'd only be able to bet like you had... $60k.

If the bankroll gets larger, the usefulness of replenishment may decrease.
 
W

White Guy

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
EasyRhino said:
First, a generic word of caution, all your examples so far seem to assume that you win, Generally, a safer assumption is to assume that you lose.

Now, as a basic dumb thing, let's say you dedicate $5k per month, for one year. At the start your BR is only $5k, but your "equivalent" bankroll is $60k so you bet like you have $60k.

Now let's say you win $30k. Super. But 6 months have elapsed, so your replenishment window has decreased. So at best, you'd only be able to bet like you had... $60k.

If the bankroll gets larger, the usefulness of replenishment may decrease.
Click to expand...

I see your point but that is where the fact of not changing spread until certain benchmarks are made comes to play.. In the above example I am only spreading 25-300 until 30k is in the bank.. If I lost 10k plus 5k for 4 months straight than the ROR spreading 25-300 on a 30K bank comes into play.. For 12 months straight would be like losing 70k spreading 25-300 which off the top of my head sounds improbable when wonging out at -1 and playng<1200 hrs... But maybe possible. At 30k it is the same factor only 50-600 until 60k is in the bank and so on...

It wouldn't make any sense to me to take a years worth of $$ and play on that the first month because of a number of obvious factors but maybe for some people.

If I am missing something here please let me know.. As I said I am new to this concept.. Assuming to win in my opinion would mean a much more aggressive style but maybe I need to be more conservative with this approach. The one thing I am pretty sure I need to scale down is the spread with 60k in the bank since 5k is a much smaller percentage of the total bank so I don't think betting as if the bank is double would be good maybe bet like 90k at 60k...

I still need to play with the formulas for a good few hours..

Thanks for the links Sonny and Kasi.
 
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