Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com

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Old March 13th, 2009, 02:17 PM
Cardcounter Cardcounter is offline
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Default What are the odds?

My guess at the odds a player had a 9,9 vs a 6 in hit soft 17 if he stayed my guess would of been that he would have won about 53% of the time. My guess on the split was that he would win each hand about 60% of the time. Question to you math wizs how often will you win each hand when you split
9's vs a 6? He ends up making 3 hands getting a stiff, 19, and 21 than the dealer pulls 21. What are the odds of making 3 hands in single deck?
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  #2  
Old March 13th, 2009, 02:41 PM
callipygian callipygian is offline
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http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix2.html
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/ap...9-1dh17r4.html

EV (not win percentage) of standing 9,9 vs. 6: +0.20
Probability of dealer 6 becoming 18: 0.11
=> Win percentage = 54-55%

The splitting case is a little trickier, since splitting 9,9 isn't like having two hard 9's.
EV (not win percentage) of splitting (noDAS) 9,9 vs. 6: +0.35
EV of one-card 9 vs. 6 = +0.18
Probability of tying dealer 6 estimated by comparing dealer 6 with dealer 9:
at 17: 0.12*0.12 = 0.014
at 18: 0.11*0.10 = 0.012
at 19: 0.12*0.36 = 0.041
at 20: 0.11*0.12 = 0.013
at 21: 0.11*0.06 = 0.007
=> Total tie percentage is about 9%
=> Win percentage = 54-55%
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Old March 13th, 2009, 03:10 PM
Cardcounter Cardcounter is offline
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What are the odds of the player and the dealer busting at the same time if the player is playing perfect basic stragedy? Pair splits count as 2,3, or 4 seperate hands so if you split a pair a pair of 8's and bust both of them that counts as playing 2 hands and busting them both.
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Old March 13th, 2009, 09:05 PM
Cardcounter Cardcounter is offline
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What are the odds of getting a tripple split in a highly favorable position and not winning any splits. It has only happened to me twice once with 8,8,8 vs a 7 and once with 9,9,9 vs a 6.
What are the odds of getting a quadruple split in a six deck game? As well as two hands to double down on for a total of 6 times your bet? Only happened once to me. How about the odds of the longest shot hand the option to split 4 times and double down 4 times using correct basic stragedy.
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