kelly bet til 95% bankroll lost then raise bet

Gold

New Member
#1
Without constant re-investment, any bankroll will be lost in the long run, correct?

Lets say you are kelly betting with a risk of ruin at 00. Then, over time or quickly, (more likely quickly) you lose 95% of your bankroll and decide to double your overall bets and bankroll.

Would raising your bankroll, and continuing to kelly bet acording to the doubled bankroll,(considering you have the bankroll) more than double your over all expected value? Or is it just like starting over with a doubled bankroll after losing?

What is the percent of times you catch the positive side of the fluctuation when you lose 95% of your bankroll when kelly betting? Is it 95%? And what effect does that have overall?

I can hope for the best, can't I? :grin:
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#2
Gold said:
Lets say you are kelly betting with a risk of ruin at 00. Then, over time or quickly, (more likely quickly) you lose 95% of your bankroll and decide to double your overall bets and bankroll.

Would raising your bankroll, and continuing to kelly bet acording to the doubled bankroll,(considering you have the bankroll) more than double your over all expected value? Or is it just like starting over with a doubled bankroll after losing?
I'm not sure about this, but I suspect that you're misunderstanding Kelly betting. Kelly betting means betting a percentage of your current bankroll - not your initial bankroll. It means, hypothetically, that your bets will constantly change.

If you start off with $10,000, and betting $50-$250, and lose $9,500, you should be betting $2.50-$12.50 by this point. (Nobody will let you bet $2.50 or $12.50, which is why Kelly betting doesn't really work in real life, it's a mathematical approximation - given a table minimum, Kelly betting has non-zero ROR)

If you now put in another $10,000 into your bankroll and want to continue Kelly betting, your bankroll is $10,500 - neither $10,000 nor $20,000. Your bankroll hasn't doubled, it's been multiplied by 21 ($500->$10,500). Kelly betting dictates that you increase your bets by 21 times.

It's a lot like starting over, but not with a doubled bankroll.
 

KOLAN

Well-Known Member
#3
Gold said:
Without constant re-investment, any bankroll will be lost in the long run, correct?

Lets say you are kelly betting with a risk of ruin at 00. Then, over time or quickly, (more likely quickly) you lose 95% of your bankroll and decide to double your overall bets and bankroll.

Would raising your bankroll, and continuing to kelly bet acording to the doubled bankroll,(considering you have the bankroll) more than double your over all expected value? Or is it just like starting over with a doubled bankroll after losing?

What is the percent of times you catch the positive side of the fluctuation when you lose 95% of your bankroll when kelly betting? Is it 95%? And what effect does that have overall?

I can hope for the best, can't I? :grin:
playing time for long run dont have memory you can lost yours bankrool again:laugh:
 

mdlbj

Well-Known Member
#4
Gold said:
Without constant re-investment, any bankroll will be lost in the long run, correct?

Lets say you are kelly betting with a risk of ruin at 00. Then, over time or quickly, (more likely quickly) you lose 95% of your bankroll and decide to double your overall bets and bankroll.

Would raising your bankroll, and continuing to kelly bet acording to the doubled bankroll,(considering you have the bankroll) more than double your over all expected value? Or is it just like starting over with a doubled bankroll after losing?

What is the percent of times you catch the positive side of the fluctuation when you lose 95% of your bankroll when kelly betting? Is it 95%? And what effect does that have overall?

I can hope for the best, can't I? :grin:
No.
 

non-self-weighter

Well-Known Member
#6
Gold said:
I guess I misunderstood kelly betting. thanx
Yes

You don't increase bet size as you lose money. It seems like you're describing a complicated progression system, and you want to avoid progression systems.

I don't really understand your original post though. All of this confuses me:

Gold said:
Lets say you are kelly betting with a risk of ruin at 00. Then, over time or quickly, (more likely quickly) you lose 95% of your bankroll and decide to double your overall bets and bankroll.

Would raising your bankroll, and continuing to kelly bet acording to the doubled bankroll,(considering you have the bankroll) more than double your over all expected value? Or is it just like starting over with a doubled bankroll after losing?

What is the percent of times you catch the positive side of the fluctuation when you lose 95% of your bankroll when kelly betting? Is it 95%? And what effect does that have overall?
This is Kelly betting.
 
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