Probablility

[stophon]

If you are playing an 8 deck shoe and you see 23 ten cards in a row off the top, are you any more likely to see a low card as the next card than you would be at a more normal ~-3 tc?

The math says no your not, but it seems to me you still see alot of tens at a t.c. of -3. It also seems like the odds of getting that 24th ten card should be smaller than just 13/49 or ~1/4 (i think thats about the probalility of getting a ten at a tc of -3)

[johndoe]

Originally Posted by stophon

If you are playing an 8 deck shoe and you see 23 ten cards in a row off the top, are you any more likely to see a low card as the next card than you would be at a more normal ~-3 tc?

The math says no your not, but it seems to me you still see alot of tens at a t.c. of -3. It also seems like the odds of getting that 24th ten card should be smaller than just 13/49 or ~1/4 (i think thats about the probalility of getting a ten at a tc of -3)

The math doesn't lie. You still have lots of 10's left, even at TC-3. But fewer than TC=0. You have to trust the math. Be careful of imprecise and biased observations or hunches.

[sagefr0g]

here is a neat program k_c made on this sort of stuff:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/atta...3&d=1234207402

and some links talking about it on these pages:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/show...t=12979&page=2

[stophon]

Do you mean the excel stuff?
I code VB. Would be fun to learn how to code like he did. Very cool. Thx.

[FLASH1296]

Originally Posted by stophon

If you are playing an 8 deck shoe and you see 23 ten cards in a row off the top, are you any more likely to see a low card as the next card than you would be at a more normal ~-3 tc?

The math says no your not, but it seems to me you still see alot of tens at a t.c. of -3.
It also seems like the odds of getting that 24th ten card should be smaller than just 13/49 or ~1/4
(i think thats about the probalility of getting a ten at a tc of -3)

At a T C of 0 probability = 16:36 The % of 10's is 31%. Odds of almost 2 to 1.
At a T C of -3 probability = 13:39 The % of 10's is 25%. Odds of exactly 3 to 1.

[stophon]

Originally Posted by FLASH1296

At a T C of -3 probability = 13:39 The % of 10's is 25%. Odds of exactly 3 to 1.

[/SIZE]

[/COLOR][/SIZE]

Wait a second, that doesn't make sense. A TC of -3 is saying that 3 ten cards have been played per deck left. So that would make the odds 13/52 right? 4 to 1?

I don't see where you get the number 39, thats 3/4 of a deck...

[FLASH1296]

Originally Posted by stophon

Wait a second, that doesn't make sense. A TC of -3 is saying that 3 ten cards have been played per deck left. So that would make the odds 13/52 right? 4 to 1?

I don't see where you get the number 39, thats 3/4 of a deck...

Odds are actually a ratio such as 2-1, 8-5, 99-1, etc.

If there are 3 face cards removed from the deck then you are left with a deck of 52 cards -- only there are 3 LESS face cards than the normal 16. That leaves 13. That means that you now have 13 face Cards and 39 NON-Face Cards. 13 + 39 =52 So the ODDS are the ratio of 39:13 That reduces to 3 to 1.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by FLASH1296

[B][COLOR="Navy"][SIZE="4"]If there are 3 face cards removed from the deck then you are left with a deck of 52 cards -- only there are 3 LESS face cards than the normal 16. That leaves 13. That means that you now have 13 face Cards and 39 NON-Face Cards

Or maybe it might mean, after 3 faces are removed you only have 49 rather than 52 cards left so you have 13 face-cards and 36 non-face cards left.

[FLASH1296]

You are dealing with a 52 card deck or its equivalent at all times.

The True Count used to be termed, (more correctly). the "Count Per Deck"

When you compute the True Count you are computing the count as it relates to a 52 card deck at all times.

That is what is TRUE about the T. C.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by FLASH1296

When you compute the True Count you are computing the count as it relates to a 52 card deck at all times.

Thanks for the tip, Sherlock.

Not sure I understand all this but does that mean when 3 faces are dealt off the top of one deck, the TC is now -3.18 if using exact cards?

When you said a TC of -3, were you flooring, rounding or truncating?

Does that still mean with a TC of -3.18, or -4, or -3, the chances of a face are still now 13/36 and not exactly one-third? Or are they still 13/39 because 13+39=52 and that's what all this True Counting is about?

Let me get this straight - if 3 faces come off the top, the chances are 13/39 of another face, so if 10 faces come off the top the chances must be 6/39? Or maybe 6/46 so 6+46=52?

I need another FLASH of inspiration.