Camo Betting Question

Greetings,

I'm planning on opening with two hands of 2 units on a 6D game for camo on Green and if I lose both bets and the count is still bad, then either stepping down to two hands of 1 unit or sometimes dropping all the way down to one hand of one unit from 4.

Question is, let's say I've just lost the previous round where the count only called for one unit, and then after the round, let's say the count jumps to the point where a 4 unit bet is called for--can I jump my bet from one hand of one unit to two hands of two units and not raise any red flags and still be seen as a common gambler or steamer (since I opened that way off the top), or is that too transparent?

Best regards,

FD

Yes.

Rather than methodically always starting out with 2x2u, let your last bet of the previous shoe dictate your starting bet. If the final bet was 1u bet 1u. If the final bet was 2x15u and you won bet 2x10u. If the final bet was 2x15u and you lost bet 2x5u off the top, etc. zg

OK, excellent advice that I'll follow when playing & staying; but same question but for when walking up to a fresh shuffle and buying in?

Thanks again,

FD

If you're betting green, 2x2u costs you in the ballpark of $0.40 of EV off the top of the shoe. Not a big deal but I still think it's overkill in most cases.

Could very well be JD...I'm just looking to take it easy and last in a favorite local shop.

Best regards,

FD

Most places that I play at won't let you bet 2 hands of table minimum (assuming 1 unit = table minimum). You have to bet 2 hands of 2x table minimum.

There's no problem here if your unit isn't the table minimum. If it is, check to see whether you can bet 2x1u.

Thats not to big of a jump to really make them bother you. alot of plopies would do that after a couple losses to try top " get there money back cause the next one in the sacred flow should be a winning hand or some nonsence like that... Now if you went from one green to like 2 black then u might bring some unwanted attention

Is it therefore characteristic of Ploppie behavior--and within Pit tollerance--to double your bet after a loss?

Best regards,

FD

Without answering your question directly, I'd say the best way to find out is to play. Ploppies behave differently across the country; if you're at a local casino and the locals are morons, even playing basic strategy could attract attention.

Scope out where you want to play and take 15 minutes to just observe people. How do they choose a table? How much do they buy in for? How big is this first bet? What do they wear? How often do they pick their noses? Figure out all these questions for your case, and then emulate that if you want to look like them.

It's the hallmark of any good progression system.

I feel sorry for some of the heat that you guys get. The local joints around me don't bat an eye at crazy swings like that. I wrote just a couple days ago about a guy swinging from $5 to $100, then down to $15, then up to $75 and no one paid any attention to him. I've only seen heat once in the past 2 years, that was a kid spreading $5 through $250 very obviously. Otherwise, it's a free for all.

Could be I'm not playing at tables with high enough stakes, seems the green chip tables get more attention.

Well that's a nice situation.

In any case, what are everyone's thoughts on reducing your bet with the count after a win (just booking a few profits)...too brazen/transparent I suppose?

And what about after a push when the count deteriorates...too unusual?

Justifications


This situation will come up often in a high count:
You put your max bet out, get a 20 and land up pushing with the dealer and of course the counts drops. You express that you hate pushing with 20 and lower your bet.

You win the big bet! Count stays high: "Let's see if I can finally win two hands in a row". Count goes down, "I never win two hands in a row."

You can justify any move verbally but if the pit is not watching or if they are already evaluating your play it will not matter. Had a shoe recently where early on I was getting my ass kicked as the count rose. With a near max bet out I get 18 vs dealer 13 and dealer hits 2, then 4, taking my money and bringing things to max bet level. For the beneifit of the nearby suit, I go into my steamer mode while putting an obviously looking frustrated look on my face and a load of chips in the circle. Win 3 of the next 4 for a moderate win on the shoe and leaning back on my chair (now looking more relaxed), I ask the pit, "do you think I should keep the big bets coming or go back to sanity?"
I take the kindly pit advice and return to sanity after the shuffle.

ihate17

I think you are spending too much time and energy trying to "outfox" the pit. Evaluations and most back off/banning decisions are made upstairs and they can't hear a word you say.

I will be more exact in my wording for you in the future

When I said "if they are already evaluating your play", I meant the eye, not the pit.

ihate17

Are you kidding me? You're talking to Ihate17. I don't know your background, but personally I would defer to his experience. You're not giving advice to a newbie here. He has been playing as long as he has because he knows what he's doing.

My outlook.

ihate17 is correct.

Much of what it takes to succeed as a Card Counter has a lot to do with what I call the "OUTER GAME".

Understanding the math and developing all of the skills that go with accurately counting, such as deck estimation, memorizing indices, and the "doing" of all of the things at the table with complete accuracy and finely honed skills is what I call the "INNER GAME".

The inner game is derived from study and practice. What is needed is intelligence and devotion to virtual perfection. Obsessive-compulsive personalities do well at this.

The outer game is primarily composed of how one "manages" the casino staff. It partially involves having an intuitive sense of where people "are at." It involves "reading people" AND being able to interact in order to achieve your goals e.g. a talented poker player, an expert salesman or a veteran politician.

When we make cover plays, that is part of the inner game. We may make a conscious decision to hit all of our 16's vs. dealer face cards and always shout "Even Money"; but when we say and do things to creatively appear to be a "ploppy" that is part of the outer game. I like to think of it as ":Impression management" but it is mostly acting is a skill that many people feel is "a gift" while others feel that it can be developed via study. I am a good actor. Introverts develop good inner games. Extroversion enhances the outer game. A balanced personality (ambiversion) is ideal of course. Then again a balanced count is also ideal. :vomit:

One danger that is faced by those who are trying to develop their outer game is "over-doing" it. Subtlety is a rather precious commodity when dealing in "social engineering", a fancy term for manipulation. At times, the best tactic can be to lay it on thickly and then back off, employing more and more subtlety over time. The initially heavy-handed display of "camouflage" behavior becoming progressively more subtle convinces the other party that it is they who are gifted with the insight that is enabling them to get a good "read" on you. At this point you have succeeded, but both of you are smiling inwardly.

I never thought I was giving advise to a newbie as you say, nor did I suggust that Ihate17 doesn't know what he's doing. Please don't put words in my mouth! I am aware of 17's experience and have had several usefull exchanges with him. I was just pointing out that in this day and age the verbal camo act is not worth what it was in past days. Evaluations and decisions are not made in the pit.

What is surviellence really doing?


Kewljason

What I think you may be missing here is that surviellence is typically highly understaffed and underpaid. The job is usually very booring and the guys there are often busy looking for the most beautiful women on the casino floor while the machines record everything.
In most casinos they will not evaluate any players unless they first get a call telling them to evaluate a certain player and that call will come from the pit almost always. So, convincing the pit that you are a ploppy can be very worthwhile but as I said, worthless if the eye is already checking you out.

An exception to this might be playing big money, unrated in some high limit rooms. The pit still may call but often it is written procedure that they evaluate anyone playing $X unrated.

Sometimes, especially after a big win, you may be evaluated by them checking their tapes after you have left and your backoff may not come till you return.

Everything we do is kind of a percent here, a half of a percent there and another percent here. This is like that in that if a pit early on can be convinced that you are not an AP, he will just go about his usual activities on evaluating players, checking out the CW and any pretty players, ordering fills, getting the new cards, getting the markers and in general trying to look more important than he really is.

ihate17