Need help with SBA 5.0 sim results!

lucifer

Well-Known Member
#1
I bought sba back in 2001,and only used it for index generation.I had bjrm already, and used the play all function all the time for betting.I am now getting back into bj and trying to sim w/o play all.the count i use, ubz2,on bjrm , only goes back to -1. i cant put 1 unit for -2 -3 etc..I want to drop out once i reach a certain negative count.that could be -9 -8 -7 and so on.so i did a sim on sba to be able to put units for those negative counts.the results were nothing like bjrm. i dont get ror win rate per hour di or all the other cool stuff.i cant punch in a bankroll to get my real win per 100 hands in dollars.If john got all his results from sba software,why doesnt sba have all the same info? I will give you the results of my sim and hopefully someone can make some sense of it all.I dont know if the bjrm type results are in a different folder but its not so user friendly.anyway. here we go: IBA 1.4% TBA 1.22% SCORE 103 estimated payoff per 100k is 2718 with est st dev 845. avg sd per round 2.67. avg st dev per round per unit is 1.15. avg bet per round 1.93. avg bet total 2.21. what do i do with all this info.thanks
 
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Kasi

Well-Known Member
#3
lucifer said:
I will give you the results of my sim and hopefully someone can make some sense of it all.... here we go: IBA 1.4% TBA 1.22% SCORE 103 estimated payoff per 100k is 2718 with est st dev 845. avg sd per round 2.67. avg st dev per round per unit is 1.15. avg bet per round 1.93. avg bet total 2.21. what do i do with all this info.thanks

Sounds like your W/L% is 1.4%
Sounds like you make 0.02718 units per round.
Sounds like SD/rd is 2.67 units.
All the more so since sqrt(100,000)*2.67=845 units.
Sounds like your avg bet is 1.93 units/rd.
I get a SCORE of 102.4 and an NO of 96.5 hours from this.

It's expressing everything in units (sounds to me anyway) so it doesn't need to know your $unit size.

SCORE, when capitalized, only equals win rate/hr with a $10K roll betting optimally.

Sounds like you are probably not playing all hands to get a win rate of 1.4%, ie back-counting?
 
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lucifer

Well-Known Member
#4
yes it's based on back counting. How did you get the NO.Is the ror 13.5%? What's the 2718 payoff.I put the units for each count.Is there a way to do the sim, where sba tells me the optimum ramp for any spread..Did john uston manually do a sim for every friggin ramp and then stick it all in bjrm. If so, that must have taken forever.if i am winning.027 units per hour-times 100 is 2.7 units per 100 hands an hour.Am I correct on this.If im spreading 10.00 units, im making 27.00 and hour and 270 an hour if its black chips. that cant be correct.
 
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Kasi

Well-Known Member
#5
lucifer said:
yes it's based on back counting. How did you get the NO.Is the ror 13.5%? What's the 2718 payoff.I put the units for each count.Is there a way to do the sim, where sba tells me the optimum ramp for any spread..Did john uston manually do a sim for every friggin ramp and then stick it all in bjrm. If so, that must have taken forever.if i am winning.027 units per hour-times 100 is 2.7 units per 100 hands an hour.Am I correct on this.If im spreading 10.00 units, im making 27.00 and hour and 270 an hour if its black chips. that cant be correct.
N0 only depends on EV and SD/rd or/hr.

The ROR only depends on number of units in roll.

I assumed the 2718 payoff was in units after 100,000 rounds.

I have no idea how sba or bjrm works, what they require as input, whether they do optimal ramps etc.

Back-counting to means you only play a certain percentage of all hands seen.
Usually an hour conveniently means you at least "see", even if you don't actually "play" 100 physical rounds in an hour.

That can get confusing how you express hourly or per-round win rates. It does to me anyway lol.

Like you might make 0.2718 units per physical round played but only play 10 rounds of every hundred "seen" or 0.1359 units per physical round played but playing 20 rounds of every hundred seen. So, you'd be making 2.7 units/"hr" either way.

Likewise with SD, except maybe even more complicated lol.

Does either software give you the percentage of rounds played for every hundred you see?

I pretty much like to keep like simple and just want to know what to expect from a round played and forget all the "hourly" stuff lol.

Then, after a session, I'd estimate my rounds actually played and go from there to figure stuff out.

I don't really care if I'm "supposed" to see 100 rounds every hour lol.
Especially if back-counting. So, the book says I'm "supposed" to have played 112 rounds in 4 hours, if I think I only played 80 in 4 hours so be it lol.

Simple answer, as others have suggested, maybe blow $100 or 2 on QFIT's stuff maybe rather than deal with software that is hard to understand and is 7 years old and maybe no longer even supported (no idea about that though - if not, ask the "help center" for the software you have questions about) lol.

Although, from what I have read, both softwares you mention have their strong points.
 
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