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  #1  
Old December 29th, 2008, 10:04 AM
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Ferretnparrot Ferretnparrot is offline
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Default OMG!, this ia good one!! for real this time!

Alright so last night, while laying in bed thinking about blackjack, i came up with yet another idea, except this time, i realy think its one thats never been thought of before, it totally outside the box, but totaly sound in theory, and may very well change somewhat dramatically the way we count cards forever! As long as there are plays where it is possible to take action upon by the change in EV being small enough

It works like this, when your playing head up against the dealer, or perhaps with only one player, the number of undealt cards that will be dealt before the cut card comes is of value to you, it means that you will get X number of hands, if you increase it by one card, on average it will score you about 1/5th of a hand dealt, particularly, on dealt deeper into the deck than normal, if on average every hand at an advantage is worth say 1.5%, that means that every extra card you keep from being dealt is worth 0.3% in terms of the extra hands it will give you, this suddenly leaves you a choice when making actions on your hands.

Lets say on a particular hand, you have the choice to hit or stand, however, the difference in EV between both options is only 0.2% less if you stand, this means now that it is IN YOUR INTEREST as a counter to stand even though the ev for the incorrect play is 0.2% less because now there is one less card dealt from the shoe.

I beleive that this concept may create a whole new window for advananced player strategy, and forever redefine what the "correct" play is for a card counter.

The problem is i dont know if there are very many if ANY plays where the EV from hitting vs standing is so tiny for it to work properly, again ill say, that i dont have software, and im asking you guys for help.

I think in adition to possibly modifiing basic strategy slightly if there are hands where it is applicable, you could definately use it to change index values.

And yes, i am proposing that the long exhisting always trusted "basic strategy" be modified according to this logic, I know I am goign to torn apart for making such a bold move, however, i call shotgun on nameing the new modified strategy.

Last edited by Ferretnparrot; December 29th, 2008 at 10:12 AM.
  #2  
Old December 29th, 2008, 10:26 AM
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Sonny Sonny is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferretnparrot View Post
...if on average every hand at an advantage is worth say 1.5%, that means that every extra card you keep from being dealt is worth 0.3% in terms of the extra hands it will give you, this suddenly leaves you a choice when making actions on your hands.
But you also have to factor in how much you are hurting yourself by not taking that extra card on your current hand. I think you'll find that violating basic strategy will cost you more than you might gain from potentially playing an extra hand later on (which may or may not be at an advantage). It will also force you to bet smaller at the beginning of the shoe since you will be misplaying many hands. Between the smaller overall avantage and the smaller amount of action it could be very costly.

-Sonny-
  #3  
Old December 29th, 2008, 10:57 AM
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Default On Names

If there is nothing to this strategy:
Ferret's Folly
Ferret's Fantasy

If there is something to this strategy:
Ferret's BS

None sound appealing

I looked at the cost of misplays for basic strategy. All of them were above .3% and most much higher.

This idea has also been thought of before, not much if anything here.
  #4  
Old December 29th, 2008, 12:25 PM
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Default .3 is alot

If you look at your positive count indices you will notice that as the count gets higher many times you will not take a hit but the higher the count the more often to stay on a stiff. You also surrender more often, taking less cards.
Where your theory may get interesting is on doubles and splits. Is it worth it to split 9,9 vs 7 when the indice says to do so if it will cost you an additional hand? Is it worth it to double A,7 vs 2, when the indice calls for it?

Are you gaining more EV by splitting/doubling that it is worth playing one less hand?
Since I am away from perhaps a book or two that might give me EV numbers to work with, I can only go with what my gut tells me here:

1. On a hand where you have the edge, like these two above examples, you play the hand correctly with an edge and perhaps play one less hand at a high count. Remember the casino is still favored to win the next hand.

2. On a hand where the casino has the edge, you take less cards giving yourself a better chance of getting additional hands.

Not so amazingly, our indices seem to often work that way for us.

ihate17

Last edited by ihate17; December 29th, 2008 at 12:26 PM. Reason: additional statement
  #5  
Old December 29th, 2008, 12:53 PM
Percy Percy is offline
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Default

Where this strategy is particularly valuable is just before the cut card is about to come out; where by taking one less card (contrary to basic strategy) you allow for an extra hand to be dealt. In this extra hand you then open up an extra 3/4/5 boxes with an advantage of 1.5% (say) on each. In this case you could argue that the strategy is worth anything from about 4%-7% of your current bet.

Unfortunately I have already heard of players using this strategy, so (this slight modification) on what you're proposing is not new.

However, i have not heard of it being used in more general play nor do I know if it has already been incorporated into the calculation of index values.

Percy
  #6  
Old December 29th, 2008, 01:39 PM
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Default Real World Application

There are a couple of problems with this strategy.

One must consider that they are going to have an immediate cost for the misplay in order to save cards.

This strategy only works if you get it to one card before the cut card. Otherwise, there was no need to misplay your orginal hand. If more then one card before the cut card the round was going to be dealt anyway and you misplayed a hand. If you misjudge and go beyond the cut card you will not get another round and you misplayed a hand.

If you are sitting at the table with any players to your left, you have to feel confident that you know exactly how many cards they will take.

Here is the killer, you have to know how many cards the dealer will take.

If you can't get it down to the one card before the cut card, that would have allowed the extra round due to your error you are wasting your time and money.

As Ihate17 pointed out most of the positive indices conserve cards anyway.
  #7  
Old December 29th, 2008, 01:58 PM
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Default This Would Probably Work

Given:

1. You have a small bet out.
2. Your next bets are going to be large.

In this scenario the cost of misplaying the small bet is not high compared to the big bets that follow.

Even if you were only correct in perfectly catching the extra round a small percentage of the time 10%? it would probably be worth it. One could probably easily come up with exact scenarios. However, what are we to do? Learn different scenarios under which we misplay hands?

Notice my scenario is counter to the "true count theorem". How often are we going to have a small bet out and then be able to bet very large just before the end of the shoe? Many of you would not even jump your bets in this scenario anyway.

If it's a real small bet, many of you wouldn't even be playing at this time.
  #8  
Old December 29th, 2008, 02:46 PM
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I was thinking more about it, i think now that 0.3 my be lowballing, the play you have to work with shoudl be proportional to the instantanious advanatge because according to the law of true counts, you should on average continue to play at the same advantage untill the end of the shoe, so if perhaps you are playing at a higher true count, you would have more play to work with than 0.3%

i think splits are an excelent way to use this as well, this may considerably lower the index for slitting 9s vs 7 and maybe even 9,9vs2 since it will result in a minimum gain of 2 cards on average im sure the number of cards not dealt would be higher due to drawing additional cards ontop of the split hands.

In fact i think for starters, that 99vs7 may be an ideal candidate for this play, how can we determine the adjusted true count for making this the correct play according to this strategy when playing heads up.

I think in general this suggests if anything that the indexes for strategy deviations shoudl be different for heads up play than with multiple peopel at the table

Last edited by Ferretnparrot; December 29th, 2008 at 02:49 PM.
  #9  
Old December 29th, 2008, 02:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackjack avenger View Post
This strategy only works if you get it to one card before the cut card. Otherwise, there was no need to misplay your orginal hand. If more then one card before the cut card the round was going to be dealt anyway and you misplayed a hand. If you misjudge and go beyond the cut card you will not get another round and you misplayed a hand.

If you are sitting at the table with any players to your left, you have to feel confident that you know exactly how many cards they will take.

Here is the killer, you have to know how many cards the dealer will take.

-It shoudlnt matter how many carda re left undealt, or how close you are to the cut card, on average if you add one card, and each play hand on average consumes 2.7 cards, about 1 out of 5 times, you will be dealt an extra round before the cut card come when you are playing heads up

-If you are playign with multiple players at the table, the strategy is less effective and becomes futile

-again with the dealer taking cards, its averages im looking at

------------------------------------------------------------------
while index plays mark the point where the profit made on that very hand becomes in your best interest by marking the point where the graphs of them intersect, i think that every index play now has the potential to be lowered to a new number that marks where ....

the EV from a play that takes additional card is equal to.......
The ev from a play that takes no additional cards, [or less additional cards] plus the (average number of cards not drawn multiplied by the instantanious player advanateg at that count divided by 5.4)

during head up play only

That would ahve to be how you figure it out, i have no idea how to go about that

Last edited by Ferretnparrot; December 29th, 2008 at 03:05 PM.
  #10  
Old December 29th, 2008, 03:01 PM
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Default Frequency Issues and Large Bet Costs

Soft doubles and especially splits happen infrequently. So this further drains on the value of this strategy.

The basic hit stand decisions already take into consideration positive situations where you stand or surrender more frequently, thereby saving cards.

If it is a positive situation where you are already betting big and you misplay your hand the immediate cost is even higher. One would still face the issue of probably needing to bet big on the following hands in order to make up for the misplay and this goes against the "true count theory" and would happen very infrequently!

So the problems:
Guessing that last card before the cut card.
Problems determining what players to the left and the dealer will do.
Problems spreading enough to take advantage of situation because of true count theorem.
The hands that may draw some benefit, the splits and soft doubles don't happen frequently enough.
 

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