I'm a little scared

#1
OK- so im fairly new to counting and have been to AC about 5 times so far. I bring around $1300 with me (advise per don s. in BA) each time, play 6 deck $10 tables with no more than 2,3 other players and no less than 75 pen. I try to avoid or wong in with 8 decks, but Ill play them heads up or with one other player when i can, only with 80 pen. Wonging is really hard for me b/c i can only monitor one game at a time and with those 8 decks the count really doesn't move up that quickly. I usually try to spread 1-10, (TC=+5 or more) but i have to admit there are times when i am too chicken to do the full amount so i usually spread to 2 hands and put around 50 each, which i know is a bit less than optimal. i also wong out at around TC -3. I try to have fun at the tables and am friendly to the dealers and pit. I always prefer heads-up. I also tip 1s on occasion. my bankroll is $1500, of which $1000 is replenishable on a monthly basis. so far these are my results:

won $110
won $80
lost $140
lost $12
lost $285

Is this normal? I know the trip ROR will be somewhat high, but are these results typical? Am i doing something wrong, or is this just normal fluctuation things? I think i keep a pretty accurate count. This last trip was a killer-i was down more than $500 at one point but battled back to a $285 loss. I know im supposed to keep my sessions short, but if i had, id be down a lot more than what i am now. Also, i dont live too close to the casinos (2.5 hour bus trip), so i like to play a lot. I end up playing for a looong time (around 5-6 hrs) before i leave. i dont sit at the same table for the entire time, i move around when i can. Im not ready to quit, i put a lot of effort in, i just want to know that these are normal flux. I appreciate any advise (just dont tell me to quit) and sorry for the dry post.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#2
In your worst session, you lost less than three of your biggest bets. Over five sessions, you are down two and a half big bets. Had only one big bet worked differently( you won instead of losing), you'd be down $50 for five sessions. How much of that $50 was tips? Over five long sessions,I'l guess about $20, give or take a few. how about your waitress? A few more bucks to account for,no?
You're doing fine. You're also learning Bj is a hard way to make some easy money. Don't get discouraged, your expectations may have been too high after the results of your first two sessions. Try staying overnite. Eat and relax after your bus trip, and be sure to take an occasional break. Your brain needs it more than you realize.
 
#3
shadroch said:
In your worst session, you lost less than three of your biggest bets. Over five sessions, you are down two and a half big bets. Had only one big bet worked differently( you won instead of losing), you'd be down $50 for five sessions. How much of that $50 was tips? Over five long sessions,I'l guess about $20, give or take a few. how about your waitress? A few more bucks to account for,no?
You're doing fine. You're also learning Bj is a hard way to make some easy money. Don't get discouraged, your expectations may have been too high after the results of your first two sessions. Try staying overnite. Eat and relax after your bus trip, and be sure to take an occasional break. Your brain needs it more than you realize.
thanks shadroch. that's a smart way of breaking it down. i guess i just didn't expect such a streak at the beginning. i know its not easy, but i like the challenge. i love the casino atmosphere, meeting new people, etc.. its not so much just for the money as it is for the whole experience. i still have fun. i just need to know that just like im having a bad losing streak (you shouldve seen some of the hands the dealers were making), it just as easily could be a winning streak. thanks again
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#4
I would agree completely with shadrock. your results certainly fall within the normal range. One thing you may want to consider though is wonging out of negative shoes before a Tc of -3. -3 means you are playing through alot of negative hands. You really want to avoid this when playing 6 or 8 decks. I usually play off the top and get out at TC of -1. Even if you just take a bathroom break or answer a fake phone call and then return at the top of a new shoe. You'll be surprised, how playing fewer negative counts really improves your results in the mysterious "long run".
 
#5
kewljason said:
I would agree completely with shadrock. your results certainly fall within the normal range. One thing you may want to consider though is wonging out of negative shoes before a Tc of -3. -3 means you are playing through alot of negative hands. You really want to avoid this when playing 6 or 8 decks. I usually play off the top and get out at TC of -1. Even if you just take a bathroom break or answer a fake phone call and then return at the top of a new shoe. You'll be surprised, how playing fewer negative counts really improves your results in the mysterious "long run".
Yeah you're right. the thing is, i try to mostly play heads-up and it's impossible to that then..even with 2 people, it starts looking pretty weird..thanks though
 

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
#6
I lost 19 max bets in an 6 hour session. this still was within 2 standard deviations of expectation. 19 max bets is several thousand dollars.

losing $300 with $100 max bets is a gift.

with that spread someday soon you will walk away with a $500 or $1k win, but losses of that magnitude are also HIGHLY likely. 13 max bets is good for maybe 2-3 hours TOPS.
 
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