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March 27th, 2009, 11:11 AM
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Please help resolv an argument :) Roulette
This is an argument that has gone on for a while, and my friends are all very versed inmaths compared to me, however i and have opposite view.
The Martingale System - doubling up after loss im sure you all know of it.
They say it reduces chance of loss - i say for a while it may reduce it significantly but when the 8 or so blacks in a row comes up, the loss you get there doesnt outweigh the bonus but at least equals it... so if 15 times in a row it saves them and makes them a small profit, and they win a few times - the loss will cancel out any beinifit you get.
i think not doubling up and betting is the same as using The Martingale System.
iv looked at alot of websites but no matter what i show them about it - the best comment being - there is no advantage gained from The Martingale System over any other system - they say yes its the same as other good systems but stil helps considerably. Also when you do win surely you win very small as it wil be the minimum bet you make, but when you loose ou loose maximum bet + half + half + half etc. which i cant see you makeing.
not sure if i wrote this very well as im in a riush but any input would be much apreciated.
summary: does using The Martingale System really help over betting on black or red and not doubling up?
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March 27th, 2009, 11:36 AM
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Location: Los Angeles, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamiekeese
The Martingale System - doubling up after loss im sure you all know of it.
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Heard about it? We have an entire forum about it! 
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/forumdisplay.php?f=6
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamiekeese
They say it reduces chance of loss - i say for a while it may reduce it significantly but when the 8 or so blacks in a row comes up, the loss you get there doesnt outweigh the bonus but at least equals it.
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That's exactly right. You get a small win most of the time but the big losses put you back in the red. They probably still won't believe you, but have them check out this thread:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=7109
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamiekeese
summary: does using The Martingale System really help over betting on black or red and not doubling up?
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It depends on what your goals are. If your goal is to win often, then yes it helps. If your goal is to get an advantage, no it hurts you more than it helps.
-Sonny-
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It's not the size of your bankroll, it's how you leverage it!
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March 27th, 2009, 11:49 AM
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Location: East Coast, U S A
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Let me put it to you gently.
If it worked to any degree the casino will certainly extend you enough credit to relieve you of ownership of your home.
So ... go draw all of your cash out of the bank and call the casino of your choice. Tell a host there EXACTLY what you are doing. They will send a limo.
You will only be the 9,321,123th <or thereabouts> greedy innumerate person to voluntarily bankrupt themselves.
The error that people male is figuring out what the probability of losing their bet 'X' times in succession is and then saying to themselves: "Wow": That won't happen.
The computation was wrong. It was done as if predicting the loss for a specific set of bets - predicted in advance.
If you need 'X' wagers lost in succession to exceed your bankroll or the house MAX bet, there will be an enormous number of successive trials that will be completed in a day or two or more of play. When any one of those "bad" series pops up, you will be seen mumbling to yourself, (with glazed eyes and tremulous hands), how it was "impossible" or how the game is "crooked" or how you are "cursed".
In short, it is provable that, if you play long enough, you MUST go broke.
A 100% chance of having completely empty pockets. It may happen on day one or day "X" but it will happen.
The best way to summarize this is that by using this "system", the vast majority of time you will win a very modest amount - while waiting to go broke.
__________________
"I have approximate answers and possible beliefs and different degrees of
certainty about different things, but I'm not absolutely sure about anything."
… Richard Feynman, 1965 Nobel Laureate
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March 27th, 2009, 12:30 PM
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thats not whats up for discussion here 2nd poster!
the question isnt if it works and gives you advantage over house... its wether using the double up system has any advantage over betting randomly and NOT doubling up...
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March 27th, 2009, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny
It depends on what your goals are. If your goal is to win often, then yes it helps. If your goal is to get an advantage, no it hurts you more than it helps.
-Sonny-
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my friend desnt believe it hurts more than helps, i say betting randomly and not doubling up is same as doubling up (or worse) because u win small alot then loose alot more than you bet... any1 know a website with mathmatical proof that it doesnt help would sort the argument out str8 away 
he says btw that he doesnt believe you because u some random poster- i say your right and clearly know more than both of us... but proof of this fact that overall it hurts you woudl be awesome
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March 27th, 2009, 12:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamiekeese
my friend desnt believe it hurts more than helps
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It’s pretty simple to understand. The house edge is 5.26%. If you flat bet $10 then you are losing $0.526 for each spin. If you are using a betting progression (Martingale or any other) then you will be raising your bets even though the house still has a 5.26% advantage. You will sometimes bet $20, $40, $80 and maybe even $160 and consequently losing $1.52, $2.10, $4.21 and $8.42 on each spin. How can losing more money not be a bad thing?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamiekeese
any1 know a website with mathmatical proof that it doesnt help would sort the argument out str8 away |
The links I gave above have dozens of proofs, explanations and real-world examples.
-Sonny-
[EDIT: I took the liberty of moving this into the voodoo forum]
__________________
It's not the size of your bankroll, it's how you leverage it!
Last edited by Sonny; March 27th, 2009 at 01:17 PM.
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March 27th, 2009, 01:14 PM
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As roulette (with double zero) has such a horridly ruinous house edge, anyone who wagers on it, (when he could wager on something better or on nothing at all), simply does not understand things mathematical.
He is innumerate. That is not an insult or a criticism. Nearly all of humanity is innumerate. Illiteracy is a problem, but not in a casino, where innumeracy is what allows casinos to prosper.
__________________
"I have approximate answers and possible beliefs and different degrees of
certainty about different things, but I'm not absolutely sure about anything."
… Richard Feynman, 1965 Nobel Laureate
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March 27th, 2009, 01:24 PM
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Executive Member
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: NYC
Posts: 5,251
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The answer is that it doesn't hurt one bit. Nor does it help one bit. If you use the martingale system or you bet only one color, in the long run you both will lose the house 's edge. In american roulette, thats a bit over five percent. The martingale player will have much wilder results,the red only player will have steadier results. In the end, after an infinite amount of hands, they both lose the same amount.
As you won't be playing an infinite amount of hands, that knowledge is fairly worthless. If I had to pick one or the other, it would be bet red with no hestiation.
__________________
Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out just how far one can go.
We cannot direct the wind, we can only adjust our sails.
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March 27th, 2009, 01:34 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 281
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamiekeese
This is an argument that has gone on for a while, and my friends are all very versed inmaths compared to me, however i and have opposite view.
The Martingale System - doubling up after loss im sure you all know of it.
They say it reduces chance of loss - i say for a while it may reduce it significantly but when the 8 or so blacks in a row comes up, the loss you get there doesnt outweigh the bonus but at least equals it... so if 15 times in a row it saves them and makes them a small profit, and they win a few times - the loss will cancel out any beinifit you get.
i think not doubling up and betting is the same as using The Martingale System.
iv looked at alot of websites but no matter what i show them about it - the best comment being - there is no advantage gained from The Martingale System over any other system - they say yes its the same as other good systems but stil helps considerably. Also when you do win surely you win very small as it wil be the minimum bet you make, but when you loose ou loose maximum bet + half + half + half etc. which i cant see you makeing.
not sure if i wrote this very well as im in a riush but any input would be much apreciated.
summary: does using The Martingale System really help over betting on black or red and not doubling up?
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100 % casino cheating and i know how.
bet anyway you can win roolette .how .isy go in casino in morning find emty table .bet £20 for 28 number if you win repit play when youwill lost all yous £ 20 and all winning .[ AFTER BET 1000 FOR RED .LAST SECOND BEFORE DEALER SEY NO MORE BET REMOVE 1000 FROM RED AND BET 200 FOR BLACK I WIN FROM 200-5000 2 DAYS JOB .DONT BELIVE CASINO BECOSE IT IS MONY,NO BODY CLOST CASINO BECOSE CASINO PAY BIG TAX .
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March 27th, 2009, 04:20 PM
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ty sonny not sure what kolan was on about though :P
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