Hand Interaction w/ 10 vs. 2

[Renzey]

Playing last night, the man on my left was betting black and had 7/3 vs. 2. He didn't double 11 vs. 10 a few hands before that, and now hesitated with his 10 against a deuce. I encouraged him to double and offered to go halves with him, but he balked, commenting that, "A deuce is the dealer's Ace". As usual then, I backed off because of the problems that can arise if I double the whole amount for him and he catches a 2 to make 12. He finally just hit it, caught a 10 and won the hand.

That had me thinking about what concession could be offered in that situation to double for him, make up for his not being able to hit again when he makes 12, and still have an edge working.

It turns out, you can offer to pay the man his bet back if he should let you double the entire amount for him, catch a deuce and lose. Your initial positive EV on the play is 18.5%. He'll catch a deuce 7.4% of the time and lose 65% of those. After refunding his losing bet 4.8% of the time, you'll still have a 13.7% positive EV.

Bottom line is, the player actually benefits from your interaction, and so do you. You could also make the same offer to someone squeamish enough to not double 9 against a 4, 5 or 6 and have positive net EV's between 5% and 11%. You'll almost never have a +5% EV on your own next hand before you place your bet.

[EasyRhino]

To emphasize, you're only refunded the loss if they get a deuce and lose, not lose in any of the other multitude of ways possible?

[bjtocki]

Originally Posted by Renzey

It turns out, you can offer to pay the man his bet back if he should let you double the entire amount for him, catch a deuce and lose.

Wow, If I spot a player like that, then I know he is Super AP! BTW, I am your fan and thanks for creating KISS III and Mentor!

[Renzey]

Originally Posted by EasyRhino

To emphasize, you're only refunded the loss if they get a deuce and lose, not lose in any of the other multitude of ways possible?

Correct.

[Mr. T]

Sound too complicated to me.
Why don't you just buy over his bet and give him his presumed win.
Then you double down. It means that you have 3 bets out there for a possible 1 bet win. With a 18.5% EV isn't this the right play.
Perhaps if it is 11 vs 6 this would be more of a right play.

[Mimosine]

Fred:

You're amazing.

Mimo.

[non-self-weighter]

Drop it, unless you don't mind this player hating you, which can have all sorts of ripple effects.

You can say:
"Yea, you're right, but I double."
"Yea, you're right, hit might be better."
"Yea, he probably has a 9 under."

[Renzey]

Originally Posted by Mr. T

Sound too complicated to me.
Why don't you just buy over his bet and give him his presumed win.
Then you double down. It means that you have 3 bets out there for a possible 1 bet win. With a 18.5% EV isn't this the right play.
Perhaps if it is 11 vs 6 this would be more of a right play.

No - no! You'd have to be a 75% shot to win the double down to have a break-even situation if you did that. With 11 vs. 6, you're just 67%. With 10 vs. 2, you're 59%.