Blackjack Attack Calculation

[Finn Dog]

Greetings,

Can somebody help me please with a calculation from Blackjack Attack,3rd Edition (p. 445 Table A52)?

I'm trying to customize my own "Ultimate Gambit" and in Burning The Tables In Las Vegas, Stanford Wong does some calculations for Ian Andersen showing the cost of various cover plays on page 89. (These calculations are done on standard Las Vegas 6D strip rules based on $100 bets at 100 hands per hour. The win rate is $207 per hour with a SD of $5,586 and a % return of 0.62.)

An example of one of the misplays (from p. 89 of Burning The Tables) is always standing on a 12 vs. 3: it shows the cost of this misplay to be $1.50 per hour.

How do I make this calculation to come up with $1.50 (from Table A52 on p.445 of BJA--or do I not even have the right table)?

If it helps, here's the information from the table:

Hand: 7,5 - 6D S17 Dealer's Upcard 3
Stand: -0246082
Hit: -0.231898
Double: -0.463795
Freq: 0.00091915
Cum Freq: 0.00639576
BS: H

Thanks in advance.

Best regards,

FD

[A.L.F.]

Originally Posted by Finn Dog

Greetings,

Can somebody help me please with a calculation from Blackjack Attack,3rd Edition (p. 445 Table A52)?

I'm trying to customize my own "Ultimate Gambit" and in Burning The Tables In Las Vegas, Stanford Wong does some calculations for Ian Andersen showing the cost of various cover plays on page 89. (These calculations are done on standard Las Vegas 6D strip rules based on $100 bets at 100 hands per hour. The win rate is $207 per hour with a SD of $5,586 and a % return of 0.62.)

An example of one of the misplays (from p. 89 of Burning The Tables) is always standing on a 12 vs. 3: it shows the cost of this misplay to be $1.50 per hour.

How do I make this calculation to come up with $1.50 (from Table A52 on p.445 of BJA--or do I not even have the right table)?

If it helps, here's the information from the table:

Hand: 7,5 - 6D S17 Dealer's Upcard 3
Stand: -0246082
Hit: -0.231898
Double: -0.463795
Freq: 0.00091915
Cum Freq: 0.00639576
BS: H

Thanks in advance.

Best regards,

FD

I'd be interested in this, too. If you can't get an answer here, you might try joining Stanford Wong's Green Chip--board because if I'm not mistaken, Don Schlesinger posts there.

A.L.F.

[KenSmith]

Hand: 7,5 - 6D S17 Dealer's Upcard 3
Stand: -0246082
Hit: -0.231898
Double: -0.463795
Freq: 0.00091915
Cum Freq: 0.00639576
BS: H

Cost of misplaying = (Hit - Stand) * Freq * $100 * 100 Hands/hr
I get $0.13037 as the cost of misplaying (7,5)vs3 for an hour.

To get the generic 12v3, you can't just use the CumFreq, because the cost varies by composition. Misplaying T2v3 is almost twice as costly as misplaying 75v3.

To get the total cost, you need to do this calculation for each composition and add them. Doing that I get a cost of $1.26.

[Finn Dog]

Thanks for the help Ken--can you tell me please how I actually make the calculation you just made...what program do I use?

Best regards,

FD

[Mimosine]

Originally Posted by Finn Dog

Thanks for the help Ken--can you tell me please how I actually make the calculation you just made...what program do I use?

Best regards,

FD

all you need is a calculator. Ken gave you the formula. You will need to figure out the Frequencies. I can't remember if they are in BJAII or not. i have a copy right here but am too lazy to open it.

Cost of misplaying = (Hit - Stand) * Freq * $100 * 100 Hands/hr

for a hand where you want to Stand instead of Double, BJAII has all the info you could possibly want. The thing is you want to use plays that COST little AND Occur INFREQUENTLY.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by KenSmith

To get the total cost, you need to do this calculation for each composition and add them. Doing that I get a cost of $1.26.

I've never completely understood this either.

How would you account for the difference of Ian Anderson's $1.50 vs your $1.26?

Is it maybe because Ian may be assuming any total of 12 (like 6,2,4) in his frequencies but Don's table's are only for the specific 2-card hands?

The OP only asked about "12 vs 3" possibly maybe including more than just the 7,5, 8,4 or T,2 hands?

Or maybe Ian assumes only "playable hands" in his frequencies?

Why does Don get $1.50 on page 98 for 12 vs 3? Maybe a different game - too lazy to look up the assumptions behind that table?

If it was 12 vs 7 or more, would you also have to add the 6,6 frequencies in?

I don't think Don's tables really include "total-dependent" frequencies, just the Comp-dependent freq's listed?

What do you think so I know what to think ?

[QFIT]

None of the calculations are correct for a card-counter. Only a basic strategy player. But, why would a BS strategy player make such plays?

[Finn Dog]

Originally Posted by QFIT

None of the calculations are correct for a card-counter. Only a basic strategy player. But, why would a BS strategy player make such plays?

Norm,

As I'm sure you're aware, I got this info from page 89 of Burning The Tables (either edition). Since IA wasn't computer-savvy, he called in Stanford Wong to run his numbers using the tables from BJA. Wong claimed the total cost of all the Ultimate Gambit plays added up to $13.25 per hour per $100 unit.

Am I hearing you right that there's an inherent flaw in these calculations? (I wonder if he made any kind of adjustment for a card-counter?)

Best regards,

FD

[QFIT]

Originally Posted by Finn Dog

Norm,

As I'm sure you're aware, I got this info from page 89 of Burning The Tables (either edition). Since IA wasn't computer-savvy, he called in Stanford Wong to run his numbers using the tables from BJA. Wong claimed the total cost of all the Ultimate Gambit plays added up to $13.25 per hour per $100 unit.

Am I hearing you right that there's an inherent flaw in these calculations? (I wonder if he made any kind of adjustment for a card-counter?)

Best regards,

FD

Lot's of calculations are made assuming BS to avoid the large number of variables when card counting is used. Problem with counting is there are many answers depending on circumstances. I did some sims at http://www.blackjackincolor.com/cardcountingcover5.htm. But again, this is just one set of circumstances.

[Finn Dog]

Norm,

Regarding your table and its vertical score column: what "score" do those numbers represent? That is, how do we use them in relation to Wong's Win Rate, Standard Deviation, and Percent Return on page 105?

Thank you,

FD