Hope this isn't a dumb question

[Albee]

I am getting to feel ok with counting and when to up my bet, when there is a plus count.

My question is.....if the count is good, what are the odds of the dealer having a good, push or beter hand than me?

It seems last time I played....I had 20, they got to 21.....four times in a row!!
Twice with blackjacks...the other two 16/5 and 15/6.

Just bad luck?

[1357111317]

The percent of pushes will go up with the count (20 vs 20). The chances of the dealer beating you almost be the exact same, maybe a precentage point less.

Getting successful double downs, Blackjacks and taking insurance is where you make your money.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Albee

I am getting to feel ok with counting and when to up my bet, when there is a plus count.

My question is.....if the count is good, what are the odds of the dealer having a good, push or beter hand than me?

It seems last time I played....I had 20, they got to 21.....four times in a row!!
Twice with blackjacks...the other two 16/5 and 15/6.

Just bad luck?

i dunno the odds of the dealer having a good, push or better hand, just what it is that far as winning and losing hands when the count is positive, well the wins, loss's and push's will be be pretty close to that of when the count is negative or zero.
so but when the count gets in positive territory everyone playing has better chances albeit relatively equal chances of maybe getting a snapper. the good news is that if you get one you get paid three to two and if the dealer gets one all she gets is your original bet. then too, if the dealer has an ace up and the count is positive enough the insurance bet becomes profitable for you. and another thing is that your double downs according to basic strategy and indices will end up successful more often in positive counts than negative or neutral counts.

[Tarzan]

Lots of questions asked on here are easily answered by simply digging back through the old posts. I am likely guilty of this also, who knows... being too lazy to dig back through old posts and throw the same question or topic out there to be rehashed.

So many people say the same thing and ping on this topic repeatedly. "Gee, there I was and had a good count and lost 6 hands in a row! How is this possible?" Is it because you only played 6 hands? Is it because you only played 60 hands? Out of 600 hands would you pinpoint what occurred on those 6 hands and evaluate them with a microscope?

"Gee, there I was playing and I played a WHOLE TWO HOURS and lost most of the hands in the good counts and won most of the hands in the bad counts! How is this possible?" Once again, too short a term to evaluate any long-term result. Counting cards makes a difference of a percentage point or two and it takes a very very LONG haul to notice any significant result.

Two soldiers go off to battle... one is told that he has only a 49% chance of getting his balls blown off, the other is told that he has a whopping 51% chance of getting his balls blown off. As luck would have it, they defy the statistics on the whole (since we are only looking at the result of these two soldiers) and the soldier that only had the 49% chance gets his balls blown off while the other makes it back with his balls quite intact even though he had a 51% chance of not faring so well.

The casino has more money than you. Their bankroll is MUCH higher than yours, so they have no issue with the long haul. People (in the general public) have misconceptions about card counting, due to lots of myth and hype and not enough reality. They watched too many bogus movies. No easy money, no instant gratification, no nothing! For that, you have to hit a jackpot on a slot machine. If you do it all perfectly, you can gain a profit but it takes a lot of time and to look at a matter of a few hands under a microscope reveals little or nothing! Due to the slim margin spoken of you can be flawed in your count, your betting strategy, your bankroll, your nerve to do the right thing, etc. and if any one piece is missing from the puzzle you may be in trouble.

The bottom line is that you can't go by any short-term results. Anything can happen in the short term! You need to evaluate hundreds of hours of play, thousands of hands... it takes a long time to achieve a clearly definable result. During this long time you have to do everything right and with sheer perfection, have lots of ammo... and if you are lucky you will not get your balls blown off in the process.

[creeping panther]

Originally Posted by Albee

I am getting to feel ok with counting and when to up my bet, when there is a plus count.

My question is.....if the count is good, what are the odds of the dealer having a good, push or beter hand than me?

It seems last time I played....I had 20, they got to 21.....four times in a row!!
Twice with blackjacks...the other two 16/5 and 15/6.

Just bad luck?

Find a good game with LS, play that.

CP

[Albee]

Thank for the quick answers.

I will search out the topic before posting again.......I agree, the long run will determine the outcome. It's just a little frustrating when you have practiced and played and dealt with others questionable play....then you get nailed four times in a row with a fairly decent spread out.

Thanks again.

[johndoe]

Originally Posted by Albee

It's just a little frustrating when you have practiced and played and dealt with others questionable play....then you get nailed four times in a row with a fairly decent spread out.

Get used to it, you'll regularly lose many more maximum bets in a row from time to time. And don't let others' questionable plays affect you, it's irrelevant to your game.

[Mimosine]

Originally Posted by creeping panther

Find a good game with LS, play that.

CP

2nded.
Everyone always whines about H17 games, but a H17 game with LS is a very powerful rule for a counter.