|
April 18th, 2009, 04:27 AM
|
|
Senior Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: New England Area
Posts: 120
|
|
Friend wants to do this to prove something...
Ok...my friend...semi-retarded (not really but acting it right now)...wants to go to a game where its 6d, 50% pen, DAS, LS and bet 100$ a hand...1 hand a night...for 7 nights. I told him that he has a losing % chance (house has a sizable advantage on this game). What is the exact % chance?
Other thing is he thinks he can keep doing it 1 hand, once a night and he can double it up before he goes broke. This made me laugh. I said if he wants to throw away $1k he can go right a head. What are the odds he doubles up before busting?
|
April 18th, 2009, 04:56 AM
|
|
Senior Member
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: South Texas
Posts: 122
|
|
Will he be back counting the shoe or just jumping in at random? I hope he is back counting, and tell him not to forget about variance....
__________________
Yes sir, I am counting, what's the deal with the extra fours?
|
April 18th, 2009, 07:50 AM
|
|
Senior Member
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 162
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xur
Ok...my friend...semi-retarded (not really but acting it right now)...wants to go to a game where its 6d, 50% pen, DAS, LS and bet 100$ a hand...1 hand a night...for 7 nights. I told him that he has a losing % chance (house has a sizable advantage on this game). What is the exact % chance?
Other thing is he thinks he can keep doing it 1 hand, once a night and he can double it up before he goes broke. This made me laugh. I said if he wants to throw away $1k he can go right a head. What are the odds he doubles up before busting?
|
You don't have all the rules but if its double any 2, resplit aces, stand 17 then the house edge would be .254%. Penetration means nothing for this 'experiment.' Go to http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-odds-calculator.htm for different rules.
Why do this on 7 successive nights? One night, 7 successive shoes. Same thing. But remember anything can happen in 7 hands. The house edge doesn't mean anything for so few hands.
Chances are he will end up losing it all, doubling up or somewhere in between. 
_________________________
"The odds of losing 10 hands in a row is 1 in 627. The trick is to play under 627 hands." blackjackfan
Last edited by ohbehave; April 18th, 2009 at 07:58 AM.
|
April 18th, 2009, 09:20 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 71
|
|
A lot of gamblers become gamblers after some kind of experiment like this, winning or losing 
|
April 18th, 2009, 01:58 PM
|
|
Senior Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: New England Area
Posts: 120
|
|
He will not be back counting, doubling down, surrendering, or splitting. Hit, or stand only. He just was being an asshat. I sim'd it for him, he lost it all in 15 weeks and 1 day. Only 1 time was he up at the end of a week, and even one other time. I think he got the picture. 100% RoR.
|
April 18th, 2009, 02:54 PM
|
 |
Executive Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: San Diego
Posts: 3,193
|
|
Did you mean 1 shoe a night or 1 hand a night?
Because if just 1 hand, I'd simply play 7 hands in a row on on night, and save on gas.
|
April 18th, 2009, 03:23 PM
|
|
Senior Member
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: South Texas
Posts: 122
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xur
He will not be back counting, doubling down, surrendering, or splitting. Hit, or stand only. He just was being an asshat. I sim'd it for him, he lost it all in 15 weeks and 1 day. Only 1 time was he up at the end of a week, and even one other time. I think he got the picture. 100% RoR.
|
Umm, my advice for him... Go ahead and just put the money on red on the roulette table and get it over with...
__________________
Yes sir, I am counting, what's the deal with the extra fours?
|
April 18th, 2009, 11:59 PM
|
|
Executive Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,084
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xur
He will not be back counting, doubling down, surrendering, or splitting. Hit, or stand only. He just was being an asshat. I sim'd it for him, he lost it all in 15 weeks and 1 day. Only 1 time was he up at the end of a week, and even one other time. I think he got the picture. 100% RoR.
|
If I have this right, you have a guy with a 10 unit roll playing a 50% pen 6D game in which one can double, one can split, and one can late surrender except who can't count and only chooses to hit or stand.
I hope your sim logically assumed, while not even knowing S17 or H17, this guy who can't double, split or surrender, otherwise, plays absolutely flawless hit/stand BS?
I say, congrats to you for having the skill, adjusting BS as required in the sim, , to run a sim taking all that into consideration over 106 hands lol.
|
April 19th, 2009, 02:52 AM
|
|
Senior Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: New England Area
Posts: 120
|
|
I actually manually sim'd it...it took a while, but it felt good to have results to back my point...I know its the stupidest thing he could do...he just for some reason wouldn't believe me...I was more posting here to vent 
|
April 19th, 2009, 03:25 AM
|
|
Executive Member
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Tundra
Posts: 699
|
|
Watch, he goes and doubles up his $700. stranger things have happened.
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Display Modes |
 Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:01 PM.
|
English
Français
