Problem with HIgh Counts

[brett877]

Any ideas why, when me and my cousin have a high count of +15 or above we seem to lose alot more often then when the count is say, 8 or 9? There would be around 2-3 decks left and the count would soar, but we would seem to lose alot. Any ideas as to where we might be going wrong? I dont believe that our count is off because there is a **** ton of high cards that come out and we havent been for the +-1 off in a long time at the end of a shoe. (we practice with a 6 deck shoe)

[matt21]

Originally Posted by brett877

Any ideas why, when me and my cousin have a high count of +15 or above we seem to lose alot more often then when the count is say, 8 or 9? There would be around 2-3 decks left and the count would soar, but we would seem to lose alot. Any ideas as to where we might be going wrong? I dont believe that our count is off because there is a **** ton of high cards that come out and we havent been for the +-1 off in a long time at the end of a shoe. (we practice with a 6 deck shoe)

hey brett877
this is simply due to the small sample size that you have accumulated so far. in the short run anything can happen. if you ran this stuff 1 billion times then you would find that you would, on average, make more money at the higher counts, although you would probably win/lose/push around the same amount of hands, but get more because of successful double downs and splits.

so to re-iterate, nothing is going wrong. it's purely short-run fluctuations.

maybe consider investing in a blackjack software (i use CVBJ and CVD) to study this more - you will get away with about $200.

hope that helps.

[creeping panther]

Originally Posted by brett877

Any ideas why, when me and my cousin have a high count of +15 or above we seem to lose alot more often then when the count is say, 8 or 9? There would be around 2-3 decks left and the count would soar, but we would seem to lose alot. Any ideas as to where we might be going wrong? I dont believe that our count is off because there is a **** ton of high cards that come out and we havent been for the +-1 off in a long time at the end of a shoe. (we practice with a 6 deck shoe)

This is a regular occurence, you must accept it. I place great value on LS, in fact it is the greatest tool, I believe, to minimize negative variance. I am also a firm believer in the Floating Advantage as discussed in rare articles and Don's book, BJ Attack. You must also use heavy indice play, remember in those super high counts if the dealer flips anything less than a pat hand they may end up busting, they have to hit you do not. Also do not be afraid in those super high counts to split 10;s and double those soft 20's, play like a "BJ WARRIOR", but be ready to accept GLORY with the wins and be gracious and cool with the losses.

CP

[KOLAN]

Originally Posted by brett877

Any ideas why, when me and my cousin have a high count of +15 or above we seem to lose alot more often then when the count is say, 8 or 9? There would be around 2-3 decks left and the count would soar, but we would seem to lose alot. Any ideas as to where we might be going wrong? I dont believe that our count is off because there is a **** ton of high cards that come out and we havent been for the +-1 off in a long time at the end of a shoe. (we practice with a 6 deck shoe)

just tray dont take card if you got 15 ,16 vs 9,10

[EasyRhino]

I think Peter Griffin wrote something in Theory of Blackjack that stupendously high counts really weren't proportionally more helpful to the player. TOO many T's and A's caused some anomalies I can't quite think of. But again, we're talking extreme counts.

Another thing in those high counts you've seen.... do the high cards ever start coming out? If a count goes high and stays high, it means the cards you're playing are still basically neutral. Either you got unlucky and the high cards stayed behind the cut card, or you're playing with a tampered shoe.

[winr_winr_chicken_dinner!]

Originally Posted by EasyRhino

I think Peter Griffin wrote something in Theory of Blackjack that stupendously high counts really weren't proportionally more helpful to the player. TOO many T's and A's caused some anomalies I can't quite think of. But again, we're talking extreme counts.

Another thing in those high counts you've seen.... do the high cards ever start coming out? If a count goes high and stays high, it means the cards you're playing are still basically neutral. Either you got unlucky and the high cards stayed behind the cut card, or you're playing with a tampered shoe.

A lot of new players should note this... It can happen with a skilled dealer/shuffler. You need to be able to recognize it quickly and run before you start betting huge and chasing big cards that aren't there.

[Renzey]

Originally Posted by EasyRhino

I think Peter Griffin wrote something in Theory of Blackjack that stupendously high counts really weren't proportionally more helpful to the player. TOO many T's and A's caused some anomalies I can't quite think of. But again, we're talking extreme counts.

The highest supply of big cards I can think of is a pinochle deck. The lowest card in the whole pack is a 9 and the Hi/Lo TC is +43!

Now play out say, 50 hands with that deck. You'll never bust, but the dealer will usually bust with A/A. Always take Insurance and Even Money, always split 10's against a 9, and always double with A/9 against a 9. There'll be plenty of pushes, but the player will seldom lose a hand. I ran a very quick 1 million hand sim. The player's EV was +26%.

[Blue Efficacy]

Originally Posted by winr_winr_chicken_dinner!

A lot of new players should note this... It can happen with a skilled dealer/shuffler. You need to be able to recognize it quickly and run before you start betting huge and chasing big cards that aren't there.

How can a skilled dealer/shuffler predict where the player is going to stick the cut card?

[mathman]

Brett,
Are you playing eight decks? This phenomenon seems to happen more with eight decks. Playing a shoe with caution at first, sometimes will give you a clue as to what to expect in the next shoe. Through experience I've run into cards that slowly work there way up in count, then plateau and bounce around a high number for several hands. This is dangerous to the card counter because when it freezes and bounces around the same high count you are getting stiff hands. At some point the count will fall, sometimes rapidly, that is when your bets will pay off. Being aware of the type of shoe you are playing helps in these situations.

Occasionally these shoes aren't playable for several shuffles because they slowly work there way up and slowly work there way back down again. The player and the dealer get stiffs the whole way up and back down again and it is more difficult to make a profit during those times. This is when card counting becomes very frustrating, you have high counts, you're betting more, standing more often, and doubling and splitting yields results as if you were in a negative count. Meanwhile the dealer is still able to make those fishy 3 or 4 card 21's etc. when they should bust. This is also the time when the other player, who doesn't play very well, wins more hands when they hit and stand by thier "gut" and that adds insult to injury for the card counter. I've found that when you experience these types of cards you may be better off walking away to let them be shuffled a few more times. Playing the first shoe with caution and your "eyes open" helps to gain an insight as to what you have to work with the next shoe.

I realize this explanation sounds like voodoo but playing blackjack isn't always the way the book tells you it should be. Playing with your eyes open helps you to lose less money and that means you end up winning more....JtMM

[creeping panther]

Originally Posted by mathman

Brett,
Are you playing eight decks? This phenomenon seems to happen more with eight decks. Playing a shoe with caution at first, sometimes will give you a clue as to what to expect in the next shoe. Through experience I've run into cards that slowly work there way up in count, then plateau and bounce around a high number for several hands. This is dangerous to the card counter because when it freezes and bounces around the same high count you are getting stiff hands. At some point the count will fall, sometimes rapidly, that is when your bets will pay off. Being aware of the type of shoe you are playing helps in these situations.

Occasionally these shoes aren't playable for several shuffles because they slowly work there way up and slowly work there way back down again. The player and the dealer get stiffs the whole way up and back down again and it is more difficult to make a profit during those times. This is when card counting becomes very frustrating, you have high counts, you're betting more, standing more often, and doubling and splitting yields results as if you were in a negative count. Meanwhile the dealer is still able to make those fishy 3 or 4 card 21's etc. when they should bust. This is also the time when the other player, who doesn't play very well, wins more hands when they hit and stand by thier "gut" and that adds insult to injury for the card counter. I've found that when you experience these types of cards you may be better off walking away to let them be shuffled a few more times. Playing the first shoe with caution and your "eyes open" helps to gain an insight as to what you have to work with the next shoe.

I realize this explanation sounds like voodoo but playing blackjack isn't always the way the book tells you it should be. Playing with your eyes open helps you to lose less money and that means you end up winning more....JtMM

I agree with your approach and am very impressed with your ability to think outside the box. It is this ability that I believe great battlefield Generals are blessed with.

You are indeed going to fit right in with the MMOA.

CP