Single Deck

[Mr.M]

I know the % for single deck is 1.4% or higher for the house, but is it really that bad. Granted the 6 to 5 jobs on the BJ, but how often do you score BJ's. I have had 17 plays on SD, no more than 2 shuffles, sometimes 1 shuffle and done. I usually spread from $15 to $90. The hands are so few that the house couldn't prove your counting. You could be hunch betting, playing 2 shuffles or 1 also deters the house from knowing what you're doing. I have only had 3 blackjacks during these plays. I am ahead +550 or so. I wont bump the wager till its a + 3 or higher.


$50.00 Single deck, 2 shuffles,
$75.00 Single deck, + 4 and 5
$115.00 SD, played 4 hands and left minus count.
SD +7 won $125
$100.00 SD, played 3 hands and walked , + shoe
$100.00 SD +55,
$35.00 SD, 2 Shuffles nuetral - $10, SD – count, +$45
$150.00 SD, +2 nuetral +60
-$40.00 SD -count, -$10, SD 2 shuffles nuetral and +, -$30
$100.00 SD, + count, one shuffle.
-$75.00 SD, +7 last hand -$65, lost, SD Minus count walked..
$35.00 SD, 2 shuffles, 1st – count, 2nd rd +4
-$95.00 SD, Minus count - $45, DD, 1st nuetral, 2nd + count, - $50
-$145.00 SD, + count - $80, DD Minus ct. - $65

[newb99]

Originally Posted by Mr.M

I know the % for single deck is 1.4% or higher for the house, but is it really that bad. Granted the 6 to 5 jobs on the BJ, but how often do you score BJ's. I have had 17 plays on SD, no more than 2 shuffles, sometimes 1 shuffle and done. I usually spread from $15 to $90. The hands are so few that the house couldn't prove your counting. You could be hunch betting, playing 2 shuffles or 1 also deters the house from knowing what you're doing. I have only had 3 blackjacks during these plays. I am ahead +550 or so. I wont bump the wager till its a + 3 or higher.


$50.00 Single deck, 2 shuffles,
$75.00 Single deck, + 4 and 5
$115.00 SD, played 4 hands and left minus count.
SD +7 won $125
$100.00 SD, played 3 hands and walked , + shoe
$100.00 SD +55,
$35.00 SD, 2 Shuffles nuetral - $10, SD – count, +$45
$150.00 SD, +2 nuetral +60
-$40.00 SD -count, -$10, SD 2 shuffles nuetral and +, -$30
$100.00 SD, + count, one shuffle.
-$75.00 SD, +7 last hand -$65, lost, SD Minus count walked..
$35.00 SD, 2 shuffles, 1st – count, 2nd rd +4
-$95.00 SD, Minus count - $45, DD, 1st nuetral, 2nd + count, - $50
-$145.00 SD, + count - $80, DD Minus ct. - $65

At low levels, I don't think it is. It's not like the difference between single zero and double zero roulette. I've looked at the sums behind SD 6/5 games as a precursor to visiting LV with Mrs Newb - she's not keen on travelling off the strip. I've concluded that the the game is only slightly worse than a poor 8-deck shoe game. I think if you understand the maths behind it, it is possible to limit the damage of the OTT 1.45% HE, but of course it depends what spreads you can get away with. I am told that anything above 1-8 nowdays will get you chucked, although this won't even make the game breakeven in the longer term - so spreading from $15-$90, will still leave you playing at a longer term disadvantage, although it'll be less than the StdDev of the game. And if you're playing heads up and only two hands are being played before each shuffle (6 or 7, maybe 8 cards in the first round?) the number of times a +3 count will show up for the second round will, on average (and that's the key bit) be few, so your bets will, in the main, be at $15. At an average of five naturals an hour that's a disadvantage of $22.50 an hour over a normal game. Your call on how significant that is for you.

Congratulations on your positive variance.

Good cards.

Newb99

[callipygian]

Originally Posted by newb99

I've concluded that the the game is only slightly worse than a poor 8-deck shoe game.

... only if you play all on the 8-deck shoe.

Originally Posted by Mr.M

I know the % for single deck is 1.4% or higher for the house, but is it really that bad. Granted the 6 to 5 jobs on the BJ, but how often do you score BJ's.

There's two problems that you're looking at here:

(1) EV loss from being underpaid for your blackjack. You seem to understand this.

(2) EOR loss from aces and tens not counting as much. This is a point that people seem to underappreciate - when you're only getting paid 6:5 for BJ, the EOR is no longer +0.5% per Hi-Lo TC, it's less. You need a TC of +4 before you're positive and a TC of +6-7 before risk-adjusted Kelly allows you to raise your bet (unless you've got a huge bankroll). You'll need a TC of +8-10 before you can put out your max bet.

[moo321]

6:5 blackjack is WAY worse than 8 decks. First of all, you're not even going to get good pen. If they were dealing 80% on the 6:5 game, it might be comparable, but you're probably not even gonna get 50%.

[EasyRhino]

Originally Posted by Mr.M

but how often do you score BJ's.

Once every 20 or 21 hands.

So, 5% of the hands, where you're getting paid about 30% less, is where you get the 1.5-2% worse house advantage.