interesting psycholgical study on pro gamblers

[Pro21]

You see many studies about problem gamblers. Finally someone is looking at it another way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGmAVI3JiWo

[daddybo]

That's really an outside of the box kind of study. Good Stuff. I know a few business people that I would consider to have a high risk intelligence. In reality, what they do is really no different than "Expert" gambling.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Pro21

You see many studies about problem gamblers. Finally someone is looking at it another way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGmAVI3JiWo

good catch Pro21 !

thing is imho this guy is maybe missing the boat in a few areas, while getting it right in some. that said, i'm just making those remarks from his video.

but for example, he seems to think this economic mess could have been avoided by better use or understanding of probability.
well maybe some validity here, but in general no cigar, lol.
this gentleman could do his research a world of good by reading Taleb's The Black Swan, imho.

whatever, it's a way cool thing the guy is trying to do.
i liked his point about 'street smart' stuff....

we should invite him to be a guest on one of our chats.
edit: i sent him an e-mail to see if he'd be interested in joining our chats some evening.
copy of e-mail sent:
Mr Evans,

myself and several other persons enjoyed your youtube video.
just i thought you might enjoy being a guest on an advantage gambling website that holds live chats.
i believe you would have an interest in our conversations and that we would have an interest in yours.

well, if you are interested you can e-mail me or you can post your interest on the following website:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/

very best regards,
sagefr0g

[sagefr0g]

here is a copy of some of the e-mail correspondence with Dr. Evans:

Dylan,
it would be great to have you as a chat guest on
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/index.php
if you visit the site you will notice there is a procedure for joining the site. you will also notice that there is a chat room.
you may sign up on the site any time that is convenient for you.
please, let me get back with you.
there are some people i'd like to discuss this with.
i would like to make sure that as many genuine advantage players are present for a formal chat as possible.
it should not take me long to arrange something.
thank you very much for your response.
very best regards,
sagefr0g

--- On Wed, 7/1/09, Evans, Dylan <> wrote:


From: Evans, Dylan <>
Subject: dealing with uncertainty and gambling
To: sagefr0g....
Date: Wednesday, July 1, 2009, 10:00 AM

Dear sagefr0g,

Thanks for your email. I would like to take up your invitation to be a guest on your advantage gambling website.

How may I join?

Best wishes,

Dylan

Dr Dylan Evans
Lecturer in Behavioural Science
School of Medicine
University College Cork
Cork
Ireland

Web: www.dylan.org.uk

-----Original Message-----
Sent: 29 June 2009 14:41
To: Evans, Dylan
Subject: Fwd: dealing with uncertainty and gambling

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: sage frog <sagefr0g@.....
Date: Sat, Jun 27, 2009 at 6:57 PM
Subject: dealing with uncertainty and gambling
To: evansd66@.....


Mr Evans,

myself and several other persons enjoyed your youtube video.
just i thought you might enjoy being a guest on an advantage gambling
website that holds live chats.
i believe you would have an interest in our conversations and that we
would have an interest in yours.

well, if you are interested you can e-mail me or you can post your
interest on the following website:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/

very best regards,
sagefr0g




--
--------------------------------------------
Dr. Dylan Evans
Lecturer in Behavioural Science
School of Medicine
University College Cork,
Cork, Ireland.

[daddybo]

This could be very interesting... Good Job sagefrOg!

[Katweezel]

Thanks to Pro21 and SageFr0g, we could well have a uniquely-interesting Chat Guest from Cork soon, I hope. I will be there, whatever time it's on. It's not every day you can get to talk to such a one... Well done if you can arrange the details.

Sage, after this, how about going after the Politico whose responsibility it is to attempt to make changes to your on-line gaming Fed laws?... Perhaps he likes Blackjack.

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

but for example, he seems to think this economic mess could have been avoided by better use or understanding of probability.
well maybe some validity here, but in general no cigar, lol.

YES cigar. zg

See -

Yes! It Really Is Gambling

by Robert Ingraham

On June 21, during an international webcast, Lyndon LaRouche uttered the following comments:

As a matter of fact, the great danger of a financial crash today, is that most people in what they call economics believe actually not in economics: They believe in gambling. It's called a financial system; it's a gambling system. And people understanding that, ever since Galileo came up with this idea about gambling as the basis of discovering how markets would work, everyone has tried to get a better statistical system for gambling. Like breaking the bank at Monte Carlo, making a killing at Las Vegas, probably one's own. And therefore, these guys who are running the financial world today, depend on the assumption that they've got a "better system"—as they used to have at the race tracks, a "better system" for handicapping the horses. And it would really handicap the bettor, in the end, as he found himself on the street without cash—and being pursued by his lenders.

But what you've got today, as was typified in the calamity that occurred in August through October of 1998, was that the bettors now rely upon mathematics. And computers have helped them to do this: They can now bet faster, they can do mathematics faster than ever before, statistics faster than ever before. But they're all trying to find the best system of gambling. And they're all competing to get in on what they believe is the best system of gambling. The result is that, when all the gamblers come close to the same system of gambling against each other, but they're all gambling according to the same formula, what happens? They all go down together, in one big flop!

Is Mr. LaRouche exaggerating for effect? If you think that is the case, please consider the following chronology:

In 1956, an engineer at Bell Labs in Murray Hill, N.J. published in the Bell System Technical Journal, an article titled, "A New Interpretation of Information Rate." The engineer's name was John Kelly, and the article, which was prepared with the help of another Bell engineer, Claude Shannon—famous today as one of the founders of Information Theory—posed the question of whether a mathematical formula could be devised to ensure success in betting on horse races. Kelly answered the question in the affirmative, and his solution, the Kelly Formula or Kelly Criterion, not only became the basis for several betting systems in Las Vegas and Atlantic City, but is also widely used today in financial options trading, where it is sometimes called the "geometric mean maximizing portfolio strategy." Use of the Kelly method, according to one options-trading authority, is intended to "maximize the value of the logarithm of wealth."

In 1960, Claude Shannon introduced the Kelly Formula to a mathematics professor at MIT named Edward Thorp.

MORE- http://www.larouchepub.com/other/200..._gambling.html

[blackchipjim]

Doctors,smocktors, the reality is that the majority of people don't believe that the world of finance is gambling. The recent stock market fall off confirms that. You hear alot of people state they don't believe in gambling yet invest in the stock market what the *&^^? It is the prespective on the subject that forms an oppinion not the facts. huh!

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

YES cigar. zg

it would be a cigar, if it were not for the fact that understanding probability alone and using it isn't going to solve economic problems that will blow anyone betting their money based in probabilistic terms out of the water.
the economic world is no where near as well behaved in the spirit of Gaussian stuff as the world inside of casinos.
math nerds can make money in casinos using probability stuff by playing like a computer and get a cigar,
outside of casino walls it's a whole 'nuther' story.
just me maybe, couple an understanding of probability stuff with street smart 'risk intelligence' in the sense Dr. Evans perceives in his theory and perhaps gambling in the markets could lead to less catastrophic events for folks gambling in economic markets. then maybe a cigar. who knows? Thorpe is apparently pretty darn good at it. i wonder how he has fared in this current mess.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

YES cigar. zg

See -

Yes! It Really Is Gambling

by Robert Ingraham

On June 21, during an international webcast, Lyndon LaRouche uttered the following comments:

As a matter of fact, the great danger of a financial crash today, is that most people in what they call economics believe actually not in economics: They believe in gambling. It's called a financial system; it's a gambling system. And people understanding that, ever since Galileo came up with this idea about gambling as the basis of discovering how markets would work, everyone has tried to get a better statistical system for gambling. Like breaking the bank at Monte Carlo, making a killing at Las Vegas, probably one's own. And therefore, these guys who are running the financial world today, depend on the assumption that they've got a "better system"—as they used to have at the race tracks, a "better system" for handicapping the horses. And it would really handicap the bettor, in the end, as he found himself on the street without cash—and being pursued by his lenders.

But what you've got today, as was typified in the calamity that occurred in August through October of 1998, was that the bettors now rely upon mathematics. And computers have helped them to do this: They can now bet faster, they can do mathematics faster than ever before, statistics faster than ever before. But they're all trying to find the best system of gambling. And they're all competing to get in on what they believe is the best system of gambling. The result is that, when all the gamblers come close to the same system of gambling against each other, but they're all gambling according to the same formula, what happens? They all go down together, in one big flop!

Is Mr. LaRouche exaggerating for effect? If you think that is the case, please consider the following chronology:

In 1956, an engineer at Bell Labs in Murray Hill, N.J. published in the Bell System Technical Journal, an article titled, "A New Interpretation of Information Rate." The engineer's name was John Kelly, and the article, which was prepared with the help of another Bell engineer, Claude Shannon—famous today as one of the founders of Information Theory—posed the question of whether a mathematical formula could be devised to ensure success in betting on horse races. Kelly answered the question in the affirmative, and his solution, the Kelly Formula or Kelly Criterion, not only became the basis for several betting systems in Las Vegas and Atlantic City, but is also widely used today in financial options trading, where it is sometimes called the "geometric mean maximizing portfolio strategy." Use of the Kelly method, according to one options-trading authority, is intended to "maximize the value of the logarithm of wealth."

In 1960, Claude Shannon introduced the Kelly Formula to a mathematics professor at MIT named Edward Thorp.

MORE- http://www.larouchepub.com/other/200..._gambling.html

that was a most prophetic article near the end imho, not sure i'd agree with completely shutting down the gambling halls of economic finance, how ever, lol.
just maybe keep the banks out of the gambling business.