Cutting to Ace or T

How does one determine appropriate bet sizing when able to cut to an ace or a picture card? So assume that I can cut accurately and know that the 53rd case is going to be an Ace. Or in another scenario is going to be a T value card.

I am most likely going to be playing 2-3 hands to allow some buffer in order to catch the appropriate card. How much should I be betting in this scenario? I am not looking for the theoretical answer of 42.08% for the Ace-scenario (from Beyond Counting) – and i have read through the other thread - but a more useable answer. My initial thought would be to place something similar to the maximum bet from my standard bet ramp, so that it doesn’t look too weird, for either an Ace or a T.

In terms of the advantages I am looking at p569 of Beyond Counting where it tells me that for a 6D game:
Initial card A creates 51% advantage against unknown dealer cards
Initial card T creates 14% advantage against unknown dealer cards

Forgetting about variance and standard deviation for one second, does this mean that my EV for one hand is 51% times my wager e.g. I place a $500 bet – my EV would be $255 (or $70 for the T scenario)?

About once a week I encounter the scenario where the dealer accidentally shows me the next card – before i have placed my bet – in this scenario the card is not burned and i am free to place whatever bet i like – i have been reluctant to push out a huge bet where the card is a T (once it was actually an A!) because i want to stay on friendly terms with my local casinos (survival is the goal!). Is this a bad move?

Look forward to comments that others may have!
Thanks in advance!
Matt

You have to include the possibility of error. How sure are you that the card is coming * the advantage% = Kelly. Also, adjust for the disadvantage if the dealer gets the card.

If you want to bet less than Kelly, adjust accordingly.

There are a lot of things to consider here - first and foremost would be how quickly you are going to wear out your welcome. Are the staff aware that you are seeing the card? If they are agressive betting's not going to last long.
After you've thought about that then you can start considering bet sizing.
With an A the value is 42.08% - it's been a while since i've read the JG article, but i know enough just now to accept the number - so you would, if you are betting full Kelly you'd slap down 42.08% of your bankroll. That however is unrealistic for several fairly obvious reasons.
For a more realistic approach you should work out the likelyhood of the said card landing on each of the hand and hence decide how many hands you want to play. For 3 hands you would then have an average advantage of 14.03% (i'm going to round that to 14%).
Then you have to consider your approach for sizing your bets. Standard practice is to bet one unit per 0.5% advantage when counting (approximate of course as one point of the TC - assuming Hi/Lo - doesn't corrolate exactly with that figure) so rather than betting 14% of your bankroll you could bet 28 units. Now that makes the very over opptimistic assumption that your variance will remain the same as it does for a counting game - which it doesn't. It increases fairly dramatically, so your going to want to scale back your bets if you want any hope of retaining a reasonable RoR. Here's where i'm going to go a bit fuzzy as i don't have the time to go and work this out properly but cut your bet in half should be reasonably safe - a 14 unit bet with a unit of $25 is still going to give you a bet of $350 on 3 hands which will see some big swings.
My gut tells me you could probably bet a bit more than that and still keep you RoR fair, but i'm sure that someone with a deal more precise knowledge will correct any grevious errors (calling ExhibitCAA, MAZ, Bojack).

RJT.

It sounds to me like bankroll is not an issue here, but what can I get away with. Your home store is important so you don't want to get barred over one ace.

Here are a couple options. Let's say the limit is 2000 and ideally you would like to bet that into an ace but you are normally a black chip bettor.

1. If you have the resources make your 1st bet 2000 and then spread down staying in purple chips until you get to your ace. Then bet 2 or 3 hands of 2000. If you are ahead, leave for that session after catching the ace. If you are stuck drop back down to your normal bet spread and dig out until even. You will look like a total degenerate looser.

2. Announce that you have a new system and that if you double up every time you lose eventually you will win a bet and earn 1 unit. Tell them you thought you invented this when they tell you it is called the Martingale. start Martingaling but as you get closer to 52 start your base unit higher so it won't look like such a big jump when you bet 2k. If you are ahead or behind after catching the ace see above.

These are important issue for professionals... how to extract the most money. And these issues are far more important than the theoretical kelly bet. Once you start thinking in this manor you will have your own creative ideas, but the first step is deciding - if there were no restrictions how much would I bet? Now that I know how much I want to bet, how can I make it look acceptable?

Whoa, hold the phone! If you need a 2-3 card buffer you don't know which card is the ace, and your advantage drops precipitously with less then 100% certainty. No one can cut to 100% certainty.

With the exposed nextcard, I would bet the max. They expect this, and it isn't indicative of being a skilled advantage player to know getting an ace is a good thing. If you can get that once a week, that rocks.

Probably betting your usual max bet isn't a bad idea, especially if you are putting that bet on 2-3 hands.

One thing to be careful of, make sure there is a sufficient buffer between your hand and the dealer's hand when predicting an ace. The hands of civilians will suffice. Missing the ace sucks. Missing the ace and having the dealer get it instead is disastrous.

Depends on why you are playing BJ. To make money or for fun. I personally play to make a living. Beyond Counting gives accurate info. I woud bet the max if you can afford it. According to what you claim it does not happen that often. So take advantage of each and every opportunity.

Welcome to BJINFO Mr. Francesco. zg

True Count Adjustment Question

Assume the next card is a 10 and the true count is -12 using Hi-Lo. Is the player approximate advantage 14% - 6% = 8%?

Assume the next card is an A and the true count is -12 using Hi-Lo. Is the player approximate advantage 42% - 6% = 36%?

Yes and yes... I think. zg