Ten Steering

I kind of know what this is, but i would like some clarification please.

If you sit at third base and it is a 4/6 full table, and the other 3 people do not get a ten in any of the pulls that they take, and that ten will bust the dealer, is ten steering holding lets say a 4/5 when the dealer shows 6 in order to "steer" the ten to bust him?

Or is ten steering a completely different thing?

No, you should never deviate from basic strategy like that. If 3 cards that come out that aren't 10's it is true that the next card is more likely to be a 10 but it is only very slightly more likely and you could better use that card to double your 9 against the dealer's 6 with.

Alright. Then what exactly is ten steering?

Where did you see it called "ten steering". Usually it is called bottom steering.

Somewhere on here i saw that. I can look up bottom steering though, thanks.

If you know a X iscoming AND it will break the dealer you will wave a 9.

If you were sequencing, and the first card of your sequence came out,and the next card in your sequence was a 10 I suppose you might slightly deviate from basic strategy if you were sure the 10 was coming out soon. But if you were playing with six decks theres only a 1/6 chance that you are dealing with the correct seq, and theres the odds to figure of the ten appearing on the wrong spot. If your 80% sure the ten is within 4 cards of the true seq, I could see some raise in the count being justified.

((1/6)*(.8/4))^-1 = 30
Which means there is one extra ten within the 30 or so cards, or approximately half deck. So if you were using hi-lo I guess you could justify raising your count by +2 in this situation? Is there anything wrong with that?

Oh and sorry to hijack your thread, I guess this is sort of ten steering.

I believe making doubled 19 vs. dealer stiff is worth more than busting the dealer for 1 bet. Plus the heat it would draw to stand on hard 9 would still make it right to double the 9.

Steering in general requires you to know the location of a card - the less precise your knowledge of the location of the card the lower your advantage. To gain any advantage with a steering technique you really need to very accurate - more than one card out and your advantage will plummet your varience will sky rocket.
There are circumstances where you could end up steering a 10 during sequencing, but as Pro21 pointed out this is generally down by catching a glimps of the bottom card after the shuffle and cutting a precise number of cards so you know that - for example - the 48th card to come out during play will be a 10. You then want to steer the 48th card into the most advantageous position for you or your team (really should never be attempted without a team).
At this point you really need to be aware of the penelties in expectation for various errors in basic strategy - certain errors in BS will reduce the expectation from the play by so much as to make it not worth while.
This is a very advanced and highly difficult technique to pull of and is not really even worth attempting unless perfect conditions are found. Not a technique you are going to be able to use everyday.

RJT.

To clarify what has been correctly mentioned. Steering a 10 requires two things:
A) Very accurate knowledge of the position of the card (off by +- one card), that is why the cut-card technique would be much better than sequencing in this case. Cut-card is also good because a 10 is obviously the most frequent card you will have a glimpse at.

B) When steering the 10 not only you would have to take into effects the penalties on expectation value from BS departures but also the amount of your bets (typically for added simplicity you will have the same amount), also you will have to be in control of base 4, 5, 6 when steering a 10.

Heat aside, take the 100% guaranteed winner with no chance of variance everytime. This would depend on what the dealer had. For instance, a doubled 19 vs a dealer 6,6 is WAY weaker compared to a dealer 6,X. WRBJ was looking for the right play not the most practical. If you were playing this way (ten steering/next carding) practically you would be playing more than one hand and your BS deviations would be setting off radars everywhere regardless if you stand on a 9 or not.

Overall however the double is likely to be the better play all round assuming you don't know the dealer's down card.

RJT.

If you have a total of 19 vs dealer 6, and you know the dealer is hitting with a 10 your expectation is .607. So if you have doubled down you are making more than standing with a hard 9. It is right to double for all reasons.

To stand because you are worried about variance is way worse than taking even money on a BJ (which avoids variance right?).

Absolutely,
I was trying to bring it all back home to the originators question on how to play certain hands when you know a X is coming. ie) do you stay on 9 if you know a X is next v dealer 6?

If you use the X to double your 9 for 19 are you still sure the dealer will be drawing the up-card 6 with yet another X?

No, you don't know what the dealer will be drawing, but you have a made 19 by taking the 10. This is a better play expectation wise than standing knowing the dealer will draw a 10

The dealer could have a 5 in the hole.

The difference being that if you use the X as a bust card you give every hand on the table an advantage rather than just the one. As you should be playing with a team - i'm not sure of the exact figures here - you'd more than likely be better off with the bust card. That said, due to the inherient inaccuracies around this skill if you're on third, you'd probably be best taking it as a double and if you're one card out you're one card out it's going to go to the dealer.

RJT.

Yeah i like that idea. That way you are safe no matter what.

So lets say you know a 6 is coming when you have a hard 13, and dealer shows 6. You will still get a 19, but if the dealer had 16 he could have busted, right?

Play it safe, once again?