Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com

  #1  
Old August 5th, 2009, 03:08 AM
clouds clouds is offline
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Default Lucky Lucky Side Bet: Countable?

Hello again,

Thank you so much for the help to my previous question.

Has any research been done on the "Lucky Lucky" side bet in BJ? For those that have never heard of it, it is a side bet anywhere from $1-25 and these are the payouts:

Suited 777: 200 to 1
Suited 678: 100 to 1
777: 50 to 1
678: 30 to 1
Suited 21: 15 to 1
21 Total: 3 to 1
20 Total: 2 to 1
19 Total: 2 to 1
18 Total or less: Loss

I see a lot of sheep players betting "Lucky Lucky", and for some I realize that they are winning more at their side bet than their regular BJ bet. Others consistently lose hopeful of getting even the lowest payout.

Just a few days ago I hit a suited 777 and was the talk of the house. Of course, I didn't bet, but it got me thinking.... could this little side bet be beatable? I use Hi-Lo, at what count, if any, could I have an edge on this game? Any information on this side bet would be great!

I have done some research but haven't got many results on the forum and search engines, but I am very curious to know at what count this could make some extra $$ and just any insight on this at all would be greatly appreciated.

Or is this side bet really just based on luck? :P

-clouds

Last edited by clouds; August 5th, 2009 at 03:12 AM. Reason: grammar error
  #2  
Old August 5th, 2009, 09:34 AM
Automatic Monkey's Avatar
Automatic Monkey Automatic Monkey is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clouds View Post
Hello again,

Thank you so much for the help to my previous question.

Has any research been done on the "Lucky Lucky" side bet in BJ? For those that have never heard of it, it is a side bet anywhere from $1-25 and these are the payouts:

Suited 777: 200 to 1
Suited 678: 100 to 1
777: 50 to 1
678: 30 to 1
Suited 21: 15 to 1
21 Total: 3 to 1
20 Total: 2 to 1
19 Total: 2 to 1
18 Total or less: Loss

I see a lot of sheep players betting "Lucky Lucky", and for some I realize that they are winning more at their side bet than their regular BJ bet. Others consistently lose hopeful of getting even the lowest payout.

Just a few days ago I hit a suited 777 and was the talk of the house. Of course, I didn't bet, but it got me thinking.... could this little side bet be beatable? I use Hi-Lo, at what count, if any, could I have an edge on this game? Any information on this side bet would be great!

I have done some research but haven't got many results on the forum and search engines, but I am very curious to know at what count this could make some extra $$ and just any insight on this at all would be greatly appreciated.

Or is this side bet really just based on luck? :P

-clouds
It is probably beatable due to its low initial house edge, but I haven't analyzed it because I don't know of any place to play it. (Hint.)

If I had to guess, I would guess it is exactly as it appears, and the 6,7,8 are the desirable cards to have remaining.
  #3  
Old August 5th, 2009, 12:30 PM
SystemsTrader SystemsTrader is offline
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I briefly looked at this game once because I had a trip planned to casinos with this game but the trip never happened so I abandoned it. The game is different from Lucky Ladies because you require the addition of 3 cards, your two first dealt cards and the dealers up card for your results. This makes it much more difficult to beat than Lucky Ladies where you can just focus on the tens for a two card 20 in your hand. With Lucky Ladies you can use your regular blackjack count to beat the game but in Lucky Lucky you need a specialized count which should probably like AM says to focus on the 6,7, and 8 cards. I don't know if it would be worth it.
  #4  
Old August 5th, 2009, 07:48 PM
callipygian callipygian is offline
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Originally Posted by SystemsTrader View Post
I don't know if it would be worth it.
One thing that people sometimes overlook (less likely with this crowd I'll admit and this is probably what you meant but I'm posting it anyway) is that even if the EV is positive with some specialized count, it often needs to be significantly positive before the risk-adjusted Kelly bet reaches the minimum bet. Because of the scaled nature of the side bets, there's generally very high variance associated with betting - such that you might need a 5-10% edge on the bet before Bankroll*EV/variance = $1.

Lucky Ladies (wrong thread but just as an example) becomes positive EV around Hi-Lo TC+6. But you really need TC+7-8 before it's worth making a $1 bet, depending on how deeply rolled you are. If you're talking about TC+8 levels of rarity, it's fine if your normal count is also your side bet count, but if you need to make a special side count, it may not be worth the effort.
  #5  
Old August 27th, 2009, 11:55 PM
cardplay cardplay is offline
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Default ??

Im kind of confused. Do you get to use your cards for this or the dealers up card and your card? does it matter how many cards you use to make your hand?

I think systmestraders post is what messed me up.
  #6  
Old August 28th, 2009, 07:38 AM
SystemsTrader SystemsTrader is offline
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Originally Posted by cardplay View Post
Im kind of confused. Do you get to use your cards for this or the dealers up card and your card? does it matter how many cards you use to make your hand?

I think systmestraders post is what messed me up.
It's a combination of three cards dealt to you and the dealer. But its done on the first two dealt to you and the dealers up card, not on any additional cards dealt. So if you are holding a pair of sevens and the dealer's up card is a seven then you win the 50-1 bet.
  #7  
Old August 28th, 2009, 11:05 PM
cardplay cardplay is offline
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now that I know how it works it seems that this would be kind of hard to get a good advantage on. A high count wouldn't be good because of the high cards floating around you would most likely bust. Probably a close to 0 count would be best??
  #8  
Old August 29th, 2009, 10:55 AM
UncrownedKing UncrownedKing is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cardplay View Post
now that I know how it works it seems that this would be kind of hard to get a good advantage on. A high count wouldn't be good because of the high cards floating around you would most likely bust. Probably a close to 0 count would be best??
A high count would be good due to the higher probability of getting a 20 or 21 (BJ).
  #9  
Old August 29th, 2009, 04:25 PM
cardplay cardplay is offline
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Originally Posted by UncrownedKing View Post
A high count would be good due to the higher probability of getting a 20 or 21 (BJ).

But he said that it counts the players 2 hole cards and the dealers up card which would make it very hard to get 21. seems like a lot of possible 30's.
Am I misunderstanding something?
  #10  
Old August 30th, 2009, 01:36 PM
jimbob jimbob is offline
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Originally Posted by cardplay View Post
But he said that it counts the players 2 hole cards and the dealers up card which would make it very hard to get 21. seems like a lot of possible 30's.
Am I misunderstanding something?
No, you are not missing anything, this is a common fallacy for this side bet, a higher count does NOT help this bet. A 3 card 20 or 21 is more difficult to make with a high count. You can't use a bj count for this game. You can easily prove to yourself why this is. Take excel and set up every possible two card hand for the player and every possible upcard for the dealer in a spreadsheet. The order of the cards does not matter. Then, using 6 decks, calculate the odds of receiving each of those two card hands. Then calculate the odds of each possible dealer upcard to each of those hands. This gives you the basis for determining EOR for every denomination. This will tell you what the most powerful cards are and what the least powerful cards are. This exercise shouldn't take very long. The 7 is the most powerful card in the game, obviously. After that the 6 and 8. After that the A. Also, how powerful a card is depends sometimes on what other cards are remaining. The 6 and 8 are more powerful if the deck is rich in 7s, if the deck is poor in 7s the 6 and 8 are less powerful. The A is more powerful if the deck is rich in 10s. It is less powerful if the deck is poor in 10s.

I came up with a system for this bet. It is not a counting system the way you think of a +- with indices system like HiLo. You have to track denominations and the suits and what a particular card is worth depends on what other cards are present. You need two players to play the system, one counting the regular blackjack game and one tracking for the side bet. Only, there are three different side trackings/counts, one for the 6s, 7s, and 8s along with their suits. A second for the 21 suited any way you can make it. And a third for the 19, 20, or 21 any way you can make it. In the first two you have to track both the denominations and the suits.

Now you have another problem. You and your partner need to be playing heads up against the dealer. If you are not playing heads up against the dealer when the side bet count is advantageous you both need to spread to 2 hands if possible. I can't tell you how many times we went to $25 on the side bet only to have the drunk at first base win the side bet while we got crushed. I think the problem here is that the advantage only appears for a short time and once its gone, its gone. So the cards dealt to one player can make the advantage disappear. The regular blackjack count is not that way. Let's say that you have the advantage right now because the remaining cards are rich in the 7 of diamonds. So you place that $25 side bet. The advantage you have might be quite high. but, if the player at first base gets a 7 of diamonds you just lost your advantage. And for some reason, it happens more often than not that another player not part of your team will get the cards you wanted.

This side bet is definitely beatable, however there are some limitations to it. First, the variance is extreme. Second, most everywhere I have seen this bet there was a $25 max on it. Third, the blackjack bet had to be >= to the side bet, so if you had $25 on the side bet you also needed $25 on the blackjack bet. When the side bet is advantageous the blackjack bet usually is not advantageous, not always, there are subsets of the remaining cards that are heavy in 6,7, and 8 which are slightly advantageous for the blackjack bet.

Developing a playing system for this bet is pretty straightforward. I did it using excel.

Is it worthwhile to play? If you and your partner can play heads up, then yes. If the table is full, then, no. The reason that I say this is when I was playing this with a partner, everytime the count was advantageous it was always the other players who won the side bet while we got bupkis.

Also, the times when the 6,7,8 and 7,7,7 are more likely to appear happen pretty seldom, so you have to sit there through lots of shoes before this advantage appears. There are other advantages besides 6,7,8 that appear more frequently but they don't pay very much so the advantage in terms of EV is not that great.

Oh, the system for exploiting the side bet requires three very different approaches. One is keeping track of the 6s, 7s, and 8s BY SUIT. Second, is using a system which seeks to exploit the make a 19, 20, or 21 any way you can. Third, is also a tracking system for the 21 suited but unless you can get a bridge player who has years of practice tracking denominations and suits at the same time to be your partner, it is tough to do. So, to really have a good counting system you have to count three different ways at the same time and two of those ways require knowing both the suit and the denomination. I found some bridge players who can do this in their sleep but learning this myself required many hours of practice.

So, I guess the question is, would this be a worthwhile endeavor to pursue? I would say yes if you have a bankroll that can withstand the huge variance that the side bet has, and if you have the skills to develop the requisite counting/tracking systems. And you can find a partner you can trust who is equally skilled. And you have the patience to sit through shoe after shoe before that deck rich in 7s of one suit presents itself.
 

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