My betting strategy, the safest one yet!

[Thunder]

I play at Atlantic City fairly often and this strategy works the best other than Card Counting but is the hardest to implement as it requires discipline and not a lot of people have it. First I search the tables where the dealer has been working there for a long time. (best bet is early in the morning like at 3am) If I'm at a $10 table, I'll bring $400 with me and bet $10 a hand, every hand until I win $100 or lose $400. Right off the back I expect to have an advantage as more often than not over the period of a couple of hours, the dealer will make a mistake that works in your favor. (paying you when they shouldn't, showing u their hole card accidentally, etc) This usually I have found makes you break even or ahead of the house in the long run if you're playing bs. Now combine that with doubling down or playing splits for dumbheads at the table who couldn't recognize an advantage play from their ass, and you got the recipe for making money. Add on to that the fact that I get comped and get cash incentives to go to some casinos and I have found that I do pretty well. For futher gains, use card counting when you can and I'd say you're quite likely to win the $100 more than 75% of the time before u lose your bankroll of $400. Anyone want to challenge me on this?

[Mikeaber]

Near as I can tell from a first read, Thunder, you are doing nothing other than flat betting, using basic strategy and taking advantage of mistakes. That's a good formula. Nothing magic. I applaud your judgement. Though if you are doing okay, why would you walk when you are ahead $100?

[Thunder]

Sorry, I forgot to mention that if I'm up to $100, I keep playing until I lose like 2 in a row or if I'm really greedy, I'll keep playing until I go back down to $100 or make like $200. Reason why I chose $100 is that I have found that a 25% profit objective will be reached far more often than a 50% profit ojective as the standard deviation from break even point is far more likely to happen at 25% vs 50% profits. It doesn't mean that I always leave for the day though. Usually, I'll just take a food break break or go for a stroll on the boardwalk to recharge my batteries and then go at it again. It's also better I think to cash out at lower amounts more often in the short run because then you can reinvest your winnings for a compound effect ($400*1.25^4)>$400+$400 (winnings). I have found that strategies like Oscar's grind, martingale, positive regression etc to require too much capital and don't work more often than not if you're playing over a 2 or 3 day trip.

[zengrifter]

Thunder, there is no statistical validy whatsoever to your system. Further, I sincerely doubt that you have even learned basic strategy. Am I right? zg

[Thunder]

Zengrifter, with all due respect, you couldn't be farther from the truth. I have mastered basic strategy and can do hi-lo for 8 decks when I focus intently. What part of my strategy would you say there is no statistical validity for Zen. I will gladly prove you wrong...

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by Thunder

Zengrifter, with all due respect, you couldn't be farther from the truth. I have mastered basic strategy and can do hi-lo for 8 decks when I focus intently. What part of my strategy would you say there is no statistical validity for Zen. I will gladly prove you wrong...

The part below sounded like flat betting, not counting. Statistically you may win the 100 75% of the time, but that doesn't make it a longterm winner. zg

Originally Posted by Thunder

If I'm at a $10 table, I'll bring $400 with me and bet $10 a hand, every hand until I win $100 or lose $400. Right off the back I expect to have an advantage as more often than not over the period of a couple of hours, the dealer will make a mistake that works in your favor. (paying you when they shouldn't, showing u their hole card accidentally, etc) This usually I have found makes you break even or ahead of the house in the long run if you're playing bs. Now combine that with doubling down or playing splits for dumbheads at the table who couldn't recognize an advantage play from their ass, and you got the recipe for making money. Add on to that the fact that I get comped and get cash incentives to go to some casinos and I have found that I do pretty well. For futher gains, use card counting when you can and I'd say you're quite likely to win the $100 more than 75% of the time before u lose your bankroll of $400.

[Gregory]

It looks like a solid strategy to me, and that is a big plus in my book. Simply entering a casino with a pocket full of cash and no plan whatsoever is a recipe for disaster, so you deal with that well. However, if you aren't handling the percentage that the house always has even on the best BS player, the odds will get even in the end.
Yes, some dealers do make mistakes, but I have never personally seen enough mistakes happen to overcome the house advantage. The usual recourse when a dealer blunders is that players can pull their bets if they wish before the hand is resolved. This would have no impact if you have a good hand already.
Getting paid on a dealer miscount does happen, just not as often as we all wish. :D
I imagine for every mistake the dealer makes, most players will make a matching mistake. It may be as simple as not doubling down when they should, but very few players never make a mistake.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking your system. Not at all. In fact, it is pretty much exactly how I handle my gambling as well and any player who just uses basic strategy should heed your advice. But in the long run the odds will get even and the only way to overcome them is to count the cards on a dealer who offers decent penetration.

[jimbiggs]

If I have $400 in my pocket going into the casino, and leave with only $500, I feel dissappointed.

Maybe you're strategy works for you if all you want to do is break even (counting comps and other offers). However, it would be easier to break even if you didn't play at all in the first place. Actually, if you win $100 75% of the time and lose $400 25% the time, then you're not winning at all.

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by Thunder

For futher gains, use card counting when you can and I'd say you're quite likely to win the $100 more than 75% of the time before u lose your bankroll of $400. Anyone want to challenge me on this?

So you expect to win the 100 dollars 75% of the time (3 out of 4 times). That is a total of 300 dollars. The fourth time you lose 400. You can expect to lose 100 dollars ever 4 attempts with this system. I have no idea where you came up with 75 percent, and I am not sure if it's right, but assuming that's the case your system doesn't seem very good to me.

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by Thunder

What part of my strategy would you say there is no statistical validity for Zen. I will gladly prove you wrong...

There is no statistical validity to the whole thing. There are no betting strategies that can overcome the house edge. The only way to overcome the house edge in the long-run in by counting. You didn't mention anything about counting in your system. I find it hard to believe that benefits from dealer mistakes can overcome the house advantage. Maybe they can in a couple sessions, but doubfully over the long-run.