
September 12th, 2009, 03:00 PM

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4 Blackjacks in a row!
Today I got 4 blackjacks in a row.
On a double deck game no less!
Too bad I was betting table minimum for the last 3
Does anyone know the exact odds of this happening? I know they must be astronomical.

September 12th, 2009, 03:25 PM


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Blue
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Efficacy
Today I got 4 blackjacks in a row.
On a double deck game no less!
Too bad I was betting table minimum for the last 3
Does anyone know the exact odds of this happening? I know they must be astronomical.

You are on a roll, a Royal now this! Take some advice from a neophyte, employ a side of aces in the DD.
CP

September 12th, 2009, 06:58 PM


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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Efficacy
Today I got 4 blackjacks in a row.
On a double deck game no less!
Too bad I was betting table minimum for the last 3
Does anyone know the exact odds of this happening? I know they must be astronomical.

I believe it's something like 192,000 to 1 for double deck. at any rate it's a huge! . congrats.

September 12th, 2009, 07:47 PM


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consecutive BJ's
No, it is nothing remotely like 192,000 to 1  UNLESS the precise 4 hand sequence is predicted in advance.
That is to say, that with every hand that you play you create yet another 4 hand sequence starting point.
Ergo, you will have hundreds, even thousands of chances to pull 4 consecutive B J' s in the course of just a year.
On an interesting note, I was playing single deck in No. Nevada once when the dealer gave herself 4 consecutive 'snappers'.
It turned out that black chip players with skill were not barred at J.A.'s Nugget in Sparks.
They were simply cheated until they "got the message".

September 12th, 2009, 08:08 PM

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Join Date: May 2006
Location: NYC
Posts: 6,696


Very nice.
I've had three on a bunch of occasions, and even have gotten the Ten or Ace on the next hand, but have yet to seal the deal.
Now get to work on getting 5!

September 12th, 2009, 08:29 PM

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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,607


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Efficacy
Today I got 4 blackjacks in a row.
On a double deck game no less!
Too bad I was betting table minimum for the last 3
Does anyone know the exact odds of this happening? I know they must be astronomical.

odds for 1 blackjack is about 1 in 20 (closer to 1 in 21 but this keeps the math simpler)
odds for 2 in a row is one in 400.
odds for 3 in a row is one in 8,000
odds for 4 in a row is one in 160,000
How did you calculate those numbers?
The general formula is 2*(probability of 10)*(probability of ace). The reason for the 2 is that there are two ways to order the two cards; either the ace or 10 can come first. The probability that the first card will be a 10 is always 4/13, regardless of the number of decks, because there are 16 out of 52 tens in the deck and 16/52 = 4/13. The probability of an ace, given that a 10 has already been removed from the deck is the number of aces divided by the number of cards left. Let n be the number of decks. There are 4*n aces and 52*n1 cards left. So for n decks the probability is 2*(4/13)*(4*n/(52*n1)), which is conveniently about 1 in 21. For example for 6 decks the answer is 2*(4/13)*((4*6)/(52*61)) = 192/4043 = 0.047489.
http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/blackjackfaq.html

September 12th, 2009, 09:51 PM

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Posts: 1,493


I figured about one in 150,000 or something like that.
Thanks!

September 12th, 2009, 09:54 PM

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Join Date: Apr 2008
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Posts: 1,493


Quote:
Originally Posted by creeping panther
You are on a roll, a Royal now this! Take some advice from a neophyte, employ a side of aces in the DD.
CP

Done and done. It really isn't that much extra work to keep track of 8 aces.

September 12th, 2009, 09:59 PM

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Join Date: May 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 89


Inplay, is this assuming we have an infinite number of decks present  see if we are playing a 6 deck games, we only have 24 aces present and if one ace is depleted, the chances of another successive BJ further decreases. I wont worry about the tens because there are 96 tens compared to 24 aces.

September 12th, 2009, 10:21 PM

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Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Tundra
Posts: 1,493


Quote:
Originally Posted by blackjackstudent
Inplay, is this assuming we have an infinite number of decks present  see if we are playing a 6 deck games, we only have 24 aces present and if one ace is depleted, the chances of another successive BJ further decreases. I wont worry about the tens because there are 96 tens compared to 24 aces.

And I reckon this effect would be much more severe for double deck!

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