Originally Posted by razzle
There is a new side bet being offered in my local casinos. Its called buster bet which pays on how many cards the dealer busts with. The bet is totally separate from the regular bet, i.e. if you bust, surrender, or stay the side buster bet still stands.
The pay outs are 2 to 1 for when the dealer busts with 3 or 4 cards, 4 to 1 when the dealer busts with 5 cards, 12 to 1 with a 6 card bust, 50 to 1 with a 7 card bust, and 250 to 1 with and 8 or more card bust.
My question is, is there any point in time where this bet could become profitable? I believe a high count might produce more busts because of the exsess tens in the deck. However, I also think that this play could become really profitable in certain negative counts because of the possibility of the dealer busting with a high amount of cards.
What does everyone think? Can anyone sim this?
Please let me know your opinions.
Seems like it might be wise to bet more when dealer's probability of busting is maximized.
Looking at single deck, dealer stands on soft 17, there are 4 cards that increase dealer's probability of busting when removed from a full deck: ace, five, seven, eight.
Full single deck S17 busts dealer 28.359% of the time.
A deck with 4 (ace, five, seven, eight) removed busts dealer 38.791% of the time.
Since any bust consists of 3 or more cards and a bust of 3-4 cards pays 2 to 1, if dealer busts 33.333% of the time or more then the bet is definitely positive EV.