Questions for StudiodeKadent

First of all, I have to say thanks as a newbie, you and other fellow's comments did help greatful for us.

Since I really take your advisement seriously, I gotta to figure out questions below:

1. Those CSM machines actually decrease the houses edge, does that means they can be beated by counting technically?


2. Which card counting system were you used in Macau?

I have just figured out that you are BJ pleyer! But I'm still confused how can you make profit? May be you also have betting system such like Oscar? Since the positive house edge exists, we finally lose after long run, right?

Thanks again!

Regards,

OldTim

No problem at all! Happy to help out. However, you could have just private-messaged these questions to me. I can still answer them here though, and I'm happy to do so.

No. A CSM decreases the house edge for a perfect basic strategy player. In a 6 deck game, the decrease is 0.02% (i.e. not very much). However, CSMs (assuming the dealer puts any played cards back into the machine after every hand) mean that the results of one 'round' have no effect on the results of any other round. In statistical terms, this means you have 'independent trials.'

Card Counting is based upon the fact that in a shoe-dealt game of blackjack, once a card has been played, it will not be played again (until the shoe is reshuffled). This means that Card Counting requires dependent trials.

So whilst CSMs do lower the house edge, they make card counting impossible.

Additionally, CSMs mean the dealer does not have to pause the game to reshuffle the shoe. Therefore, the game is played faster (between 10 and 20%), which increases the expected loss of the player. As such, play slow against a CSM and be bitchy about drink service... that way, you will neutralize the effect and also get more comp points




I don't card count in Macau. You cannot, since the games are all CSM dealt. However, the Wynn does use a 1-deck discard tray which means trials are dependent, yet there is only 1 deck of penetration. This means that the CSM doesn't speed up the game too much, but you will not get a positive true count very frequently.

However, the house edge of the game under perfect basic strategy is 0.10%. This is so damn low that you might as well not card count in the first place. Just learn the basic strategy, stick to it, and bring a large, variance-proofed bankroll (40+ units is what most recommend, so > 4000 HKD).

The house edge does not mean you will "all lose eventually." It means as the number of hands you play approaches a really really large number, the more likely it is that your overall loss will approach 1/1000th of whatever you have betted.

True, you won't make a financial profit from the game (over the long run). But you will get MORE than your money's worth in entertainment, if you play the correct basic strategy.

Thank you so much for your very detailed answer! I understand now, but the new question will be is that result in worse than BS if I use card counting with CSM?

By the way, I found many BSs from Internet, they are most same but slight difference, can you recommend one which suitable for Star City?

First, please realize that it is not a 'choice' between BS and card counting. Most card counters play basic strategy; they just increase their bets when the true count is high. So the first thing you must do is play basic strategy.

Second, you CANNOT card count against CSMs! It is impossible (assuming the cards are placed back into the CSM after every hand). So drop any thought of card counting against CSMs.

The best way to play at Star City is to use perfect basic strategy and flat-bet the table minimums.

Personally, don't play. Star City has a house edge of 0.56%. Tabcorp is an evil monopoly, priveliged by the state. It does not deserve your money.

If you MUST play at Star City, use the following strategy: http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/australian.html

Thanks a lot for yout notification, I`m just going to do little practise at StarCity, the most practises will do with computer at home, also thanks for your BS, I`ll start to study the BS system tonight and wish I can play it at Macau on XMAS:grin: