Assessment of Risk in BJ---Which calculator should you use?

I initially devised a betting ramp that used a spread of 2x1 unit to 2x20 units. I capped it at 20 units because that is what a 60k bank would permit and maintain about a 5% lifetime ROR. But should I really be concerned with simple ROR when there are real world constraints in place?

In other words, rather then worry about simple ROR, wouldn't it be more practical to just use the double barrier calculator to assess ROR? The life of the bank is 400 hours (short, I know) and the goal will probably be about 40k. So, say I recompute my ramp with a larger unit such that the simple ROR calculator now brings back 25% ROR but the DB calculator reports a 5% ROR. Is this a smart way to play it? A 25% ROR is almost double kelly, but then again I am not playing for an eternity anyway.

Note: I am not resizing my unit regardless if my bank grows or shrinks, so I don't think the geometric growth rate of the bank will be come into play.

Thanks for any insight,
MJ

Swing, Swing and Swing

A 25% ror seems rather high to me!:joker::whip: Wether it is long or short term. Even the SD swings using the DB formula are going to be large!:joker::whip: Are you ready for that? If you are a little unlucky but reach the 400 hr mark are you going to stop play? Never play again?:joker::whip:

It seems you have no consideration for bankroll preservation?:joker::whip: If this money has real value to you then you should resize your bets downwards if the bank shrinks.

If any of these thoughts make you pause then perhaps the ror formula is preferable to the DB formula!:joker::whip:

BIG disclaimer to begin with - take everything with a grain of salt.

In general, I'd rather have the normal "ROR" and let the DB formual fall where it may. Maybe even just using a short-term "trip ror" instead.

There are, I think 2 DB formulae - one is chances of reaching a goal at any point in a max specified period of time. The other, the one I think you are talking about, the chances of going bust attempting to achieve a goal in a specified period of time. In other words, you will play the max amt of specified time and quit then even if you have not yet ever achieved goal at any point during that time. Or, you will quit when broke never reaching the max time.

This DB formula generally maybe gives a lowish ROR for 50-400 hrs periods of
time compared to the other ror becasue, perhaps fairly often, one will neither go broke nor achieve goal in specified tiime.

If you got $60K and are still wondering/unsure about risk over a period of time with what sounds like some king of made-up "spreading" ramp, (I even got nervous when you said "you" are devising betting ramps lol) I hope you correctly pick which ror you will be subjecting your $60K roll to with a goal of winning $40 K in the next 400 hrs.

I have no idea how QFIT's stuff handles the DB formulae - I suspect maybe that's what he uses in "short-term" lilkihoods in CVCX?

I would like to know that lol.

Never been able to figure out those DB formulae anyway lol.

Also, I'm guessing they might be assuming basically that one brings/is willing to risk the entire $60K to the table for the next 400 hrs?

How are you getting your calced rors anyway without a sim? Is that what you are using? Just curious - no big deal.





Change the "time" to "infinityish" and alot can change.