tens have been killing me

Earlier this year I began playing blackjack seriously. I have played casually for years but recently set out to significantly improve my game. I have been working on counting using the KO system, I am not proficient enough to put it into action yet but practice everyday. I've been playing in my local casino 3 or 4 times per week just using basic strategy while secretly practicing my count.
My question is......at times that I believe the count has gone positive, I am frequently aware of an abundance of tens hitting the table. However, those tens are more often breaking my stiff hands and giving the dealer 20's. Like I said, I am still practicing and continue to just play basic strategy at table min so I am not ramping up my bets or modifying plays yet. I know that there are two facets to using count information. One is to increase bet when conditions are favorable and other is to modify strategy decisions for certain hands. However, the problem I am having is I keep seeing an abundance of hands that could not be helped by any strategy modification like stiff 12's, 13's etc... against dealer 10's, I hit and bust and he ends up with a 10 in the hole. This observation is making me hesitant about increasing my wager. Have I just not witnessed a statistically large enough sample or should I be looking to improve through another aspect of play?

Well I'm sure I'm going to get flamed to death for this response, but the thing you have to remember is you cannot control the cards! You cannot totally remove the luck factor because each session, shoe and hand are independent events. No matter how much the count is in your favor there are still a lot of small cards that may very well find their way into your hand(s), and when you do get good hands in positive counts there is still no guarantee that your hand is going to beat the dealer. The majority here will no doubt tell you that this is just "variance" and you will overcome it after several thousand or millions of hands, as if there are card gods who use their powers of karma to start steering things your way after you've lost nearly everything.

But the fact remains that each hand, shoe and session are independent events and the cards have no way of knowing that they are supposed to "right" previous "wrongs". Things may very well turn around for you, but then again they may not. So here's what I recommend:

Set a limit you're comfortable with and stick to it. This is the part I usually have trouble with.

Don't make huge bets you aren't comfortable with. If you're winning it makes it easier to spread more and bet more when the count is positive, but if you're losing, betting more trying to quickly make up for losses rarely works. They may tell you to spread 1-8 or 1-12 here and bet the max when the count calls for it, but don't do this if you aren't comfortable doing it and/or don't have the resources to keep going if you lose a few hands betting so much. There is nothing worse than busting out after 20 minutes or so in a casino (especially if you have to drive 2 hours to get to one like I do). Start slowly and gradually increase your bets if you're winning. The count is important, but not as important as the chips (or the lack thereof) in front of you or what's left in your wallet.

Good luck.

Let the flaming begin.

:flame::flame::flame::flame::flame::yikes:

I like my burgers and my incorrect forum posts well done. LOL

Each hand is dependent of each other in one shoe, otherwise counting wouldn't work. This isn't roulette, or slots, unless you guys have been playing BJ on CSMs. Then there's your problem!

Palroot, The best card counters gain at best a 2% advantage over the house. Meaning, they can keep count ACCURATELY, and CONSISTENTLY over many sessions using an advanced counting system <read hi opt II, not KO> and have memorized over 100 index plays. 2%? Do you expect to win every time with a 2% advantage?

I highly suggest you log your wins/losses or get some sim software before you start betting big. There are plenty of other problems that will arise besides the cards not coming "correctly" for you. better to solve them now than before the real bankroll comes out. I'm guessing that you haven't logged that much time with the KO count and have been inaccurate keeping track of the count. There is a free trainer on this site, but I seem to always recommend http://www.qfit.com software. I should probably get on the payroll since I push it so much!! He is also on this forum, and is very friendly.

Topics for review:

"selective perception"

"imperfect perception"

"innumeracy"

It happens. Sometimes it seems like the dealer always has a cold turkey, while you can only bust a 12.

The worst part- you bust your 12, then the dealer flips over a 6 and busts his 16, not that it does you any good.

It's one of the things we have to live with, and if you want to have something to stick in you memory how about all those times you stand on a 16 or 15 vs. 10 and watch the dealer blow himself up? Those are the ones I remember. Or the times you split 10's and get 2 more? Just endure- the number of hands that it takes for this all to make sense is not something our memories can handle.

Pal

Find an excellent game and hone your skillz, you may come out a winner. But you need both, or just forget about it.

CP

Oh, so you know for certain that when the count is well in your favor you're not going to a get 10,6 against a dealer Ace or 10? It doesn't work that way. You cannot control the cards. You cannot control the composition of your hand or the dealers hand. Counting may well tell you that you are somewhat more likely to get more favorable cards, but it is certainly no guarantee. Each hand and each round from a shoe are independent events. There are still a significant number of low and medium cards left and you cannot control whether they find their way into your hand or not. Nor can you control if the dealer keeps pushing your hands of 20 or beating you with a BJ. Just because the count is high does not mean you're going to get a hand of 20 or a BJ on the next hand. Each hand is an independent event.

Try Spanish 21. They remove all those pesky tens from the deck for you.

Thank you for the lesson, I really didn't know that's what happens.:cry::cry::cry:

Your definition is still wrong though. the whole reason why you count is to find the probability of winning through tracking what cards have already been played and have thus, been taken out of play.(unless csm is your thing) So each hand IS dependent on what cards came out in the prior rounds. In roulette, when a number is hit, it is not taken out of play. The probability of hitting that same number again is constant, and never increases nor decreases through successive rounds. you can't count or track numbers that have been taken out of play to give you an edge. Hence the term "independent events."

If there is a significant amount left, than your count will be low, thus keeping you from betting too much.

I never said anything about controlling the cards. Please re read my post. You control your bet spreads when you think you will win more often than lose. But no, you can't predict what the actual composition of the next hands will be through counting. Nor can you predict if you will get the natural or if the dealer will get the natural. Unless....we want to discuss another AP "technique" for that.

that is an excellent suggestion! LOL

How will you ever decide when you ARE proficient enuf to bet more money? How will you know, after you decide that, how much money you need?

Sounds to me like you think alot of tens are going to come out and they often do. Sounds to me like your counting is fine. It really should be after months.

Quit wasting time and money playing a -EV BS game at your local casino 4 times a week. Use freely available software to practice the accuracy of your counting maybe.

Find a ramp from a sim for the game you are playing and bet that way while practicing.

Stop worrying about those darn 10's

Tens happen lol.

But I sympathize - I sometimes count too while playing BS and sometimes actually increase my bet from $5 to $10 or $15 in some very high count. Then the other 5 guys and the dealer all have a 10 up. I get the 6 up lmao.
But I do get my 10 on the second card lmao.

It's quite possible after you even do all that, once you realize how much money you may need to risk you may choose to just not do it anyway lol.
OTOH, maybe you'll give it a shot and just quit if things get bad before losing it all and take another shot later.

Good luck - it's hard to know when to take the plunge and start "swimming" lol.

I have been practicing daily on computer with lots of distractions, I am just still having trouble keeping it together in the casino with the frantic pace that cards are scooped up and dealt.
I am not expecting to control or predict the output of cards and I understand the long slow road to realizing an advantage. It took me 15 years to reach positive return on video poker and I consider that extremely lucky.
thanks for all the replies, they have given me somethings to think about. Perhaps I have been experiencing some selective memory, I am forgetting about all good cards I was dealt.