Periodic overbetting as a plus

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Dopple

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
Not being on a vacation and close to play with no nearby risk of ruin I propose this:

Given any advantage you are better off with more money on the table. While still having fun you should leverage as much money as you can onto the table and get somewhat close to the edge especially with a replenishable BR.

One member said he places his max bet a TC3, now why would that not be a good strategy periodically as long as it does not knock you out of play for a while.

You would have more risk but your range of action would increase if your profits rose which they should on average.
 
StandardDeviant

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Would it not be the case that anytime the probability (p) is > 0 one will make money, eventually? So, if we know that p > 0, and if we assume an infinite bankroll, and if we further assume an infinite emotional capacity to tolerate bankroll fluctuations, and while we're at it let's assume perfect play, then I say "go for it."

If BS produces p = -0.005, and each increment of TC adds 0.005 of advantage, we could mortgage the farm when TC > 1.
 
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B

Bojack1

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
If BS produces p = -0.005, and each increment of TC adds 0.005 of advantage, we could mortgage the farm when TC > 1
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As long as you have more than 1 farm to lose until it plays out in your favor. A fully replenishible bankroll can be theoretically overbet, as risk is not as important a factor. For playing with a set bankroll trying to build on it, betting the farm on a .005 % advantage carries a risk far greater than one should take. The key is proportional betting to your advantage based on your bankroll. If you are in the game for the juice of the gamble, you better be prepared to reload, 1 original bankroll won't see you through.
 
J

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Dopple said:
Not being on a vacation and close to play with no nearby risk of ruin I propose this:

Given any advantage you are better off with more money on the table. While still having fun you should leverage as much money as you can onto the table and get somewhat close to the edge especially with a replenishable BR.

One member said he places his max bet a TC3, now why would that not be a good strategy periodically as long as it does not knock you out of play for a while.

You would have more risk but your range of action would increase if your profits rose which they should on average.
Click to expand...
As long as you're OK with the extra risk, nothing wrong with it at all. But that extra risk is VERY real, and can be devastating. A lot can go wrong when your advantage is small.

Running a max bet at TC3 is probably common for those playing modest table limits and/or with reasonably big bankrolls.
 
D

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
A little bit of a niave queston but it was on my mind.

Thanks for the feedback. I think I will plan for a modest increase in betting during the final hours of a winning session at high counts.

Better safe than sorry.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Dopple,

You said:

"I think I will plan for a modest increase in betting during the final hours of a winning session at high counts."

It is important for the reader to understand, that that statement makes NO sense.

Indeed, it smacks of the mythology of "money management" - which is largely chimerical - [an illusion]

If anything, for reasons of promulgating "longevity generating cover" (to coin a phrase),
the precise opposite is a far better idea, as you are somewhat more likely to be surveilled
at the concluding shoe of a "winning session" as you put it;
especially as you are butting up against the "table max" bets in your "winning sessions"

Understand that "sessions" are little more than artificial divisions of time;
so it is far better to examine your play and your results in BIG "chunks"
of time, e.g. the last year. Better than thinking that time is the best
"language" for your thinking, it is numbers that are best. That is why
statistical analysis will always focus on metrics like "per 100 hands" etc.
 
J

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Flash has a good point. I'd recommend upping your bets a little more (if you must) based primarily on when you think you can get away with it (heat absent or reduced, which may or may not be correlated with a losing session).
 
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1357111317

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
How about this for overbetting. On a game with limits that are insignificant for your bankroll and due to that fact you really don't care about your longevity try this one. Bet table max at any positive advantage situation and table min for any negative advantage situation. Good way to practice your act as well.
 
blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
Kelly, Kelly Get Your Kelly Here!

A Kelly or fractional Kelly bettor would bet a little more with success!:joker::whip:

However, overbetting is horrible!
 
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