Lost 700 units in one sesion need help

daniel27

Well-Known Member
#1
i just lost 700 units in 3 hours :confused:, with this data ,,what are the odds of this?? :
win rate 334 dollars
SD 2804 dollars
hands 480( i play two hands most head up)
units 10 dollars BR 40000
kelly 0,6
ROR 3.3%

the calculator of cvcx says 18.9% but it seems too high and of course i never had win the half of 700 units
thanks any response
suggestions ???
 

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#2
daniel27 said:
i just lost 700 units in 3 hours :confused:, with this data ,,what are the odds of this?? :
win rate 334 dollars
SD 2804 dollars
hands 480( i play two hands most head up)
units 10 dollars BR 40000
kelly 0,6
ROR 3.3%

the calculator of cvcx says 18.9% but it seems too high and of course i never had win the half of 700 units
thanks any response
suggestions ???
With CVCX you can get the answer to this question.
 

bjcount

Well-Known Member
#4
daniel27 said:
i just lost 700 units in 3 hours :confused:, with this data ,,what are the odds of this?? :
win rate 334 dollars
SD 2804 dollars
hands 480( i play two hands most head up)
units 10 dollars BR 40000
kelly 0,6
ROR 3.3%

the calculator of cvcx says 18.9% but it seems too high and of course i never had win the half of 700 units
thanks any response
suggestions ???
Ouch! Sounds like a bit of steaming had developed. and why wouldn't you take a break after losing 150-200 units?

This may sound like a trick question but what is your min bet and max bet ?
What do you think your average bet was per hand?

What rules, decks, etc.

BJC
 
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kewljason

Well-Known Member
#5
bjcount said:
Ouch! Sounds like a bit of steaming had developed. and why wouldn't you take a break after losing 150-200 units?

This may sound like a trick question but what is your min bet and max bet ?
What do you think your average bet was per hand?

What rules, decks, etc.

BJC
I too am interested to know your bet spread. Off the top of my head these numbers seem odd to me. $40,000 BR with a $10 unit bet? Unless you are playing some big bet spread, I would think your RoR would be less than you stated.

So you lost $7000 in 3 hours, right? If you are spreading $10-$500 thats 14 max bets and don't seem unreasonable. If you are spreading $10-$100 thats 70 max bets which is sounding more unusual. So again, would help to know your spread and max bet.
 

daniel27

Well-Known Member
#6
kewljason said:
I too am interested to know your bet spread. Off the top of my head these numbers seem odd to me. $40,000 BR with a $10 unit bet? Unless you are playing some big bet spread, I would think your RoR would be less than you stated.

So you lost $7000 in 3 hours, right? If you are spreading $10-$500 thats 14 max bets and don't seem unreasonable. If you are spreading $10-$100 thats 70 max bets which is sounding more unusual. So again, would help to know your spread and max bet.
1 to 60, why should an AP take breaks??, not steaming.
max bet 600
 

daniel27

Well-Known Member
#9
zengrifter said:
In order to stop and reflect on whether he's an AP. zg
i do not understand , you mean for the casino or for myself ??
using mentor 52 indices , 25 second 1 deck. most big player routine, 2100 units up right now.
 

bjcount

Well-Known Member
#10
zengrifter said:
In order to stop and reflect on whether he's an AP. zg
:laugh: I think it went over his head.

2 x $600 max w/ $40,000 br... mighty big max for such a small BR. Depending upon your game which you didn't post you can be ranging between 7%-15%+ RoR.

700 $10 units with $1,200 per round possibly lost ....

Thats only 5-6 lost hands in a row at max bet.

Just off the top of my head it sounds like you can easily see a 750 unit swing quite often.

BJC
 
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21forme

Well-Known Member
#11
daniel27 said:
1 to 60, why should an AP take breaks??, not steaming.
max bet 600
Said same as bjcount, but he beat me to it.

There's no reason to stop a bad run as long as the count is good.
 
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daniel27

Well-Known Member
#12
bjcount said:
:laugh: I think it went over his head.

2 x $600 max w/ $40,000 br... mighty big max for such a small BR.

700 $10 units with $1,200 per round possibly lost ....

Thats only 5-6 lost hands in a row at max bet.

Just off the top of my head it sounds like you can easily see a 750 unit swing quite often.

BJC
i do not live in USA ( I read a lot but i dont speak english) , that was using cvcx kelly 0,5 ROR 3,3% , now i play with 1,8%
 

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
#15
StandardDeviant said:
A 1 to 60x2 spread? Why do that? :eek:
?? Why NOT do that? If you can get away with a big spreads, all the better! Assuming of course that you aren't overbetting your BR.

PS: Im going to assume that you are playing correctly and that your ror assessment is correct. With a 60 unit bet, losing 700 units is not that uncommon. Thats the rollercoaster ride of the game. Looking backwards and questioning the odds of the event occurring is pointless as it already happened and theres nothing you can do to change that loss. Instead, work on improving your game. Find a bigger edge and try to cut down variance.
 
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daniel27

Well-Known Member
#17
SleightOfHand said:
?? Why NOT do that? If you can get away with a big spreads, all the better! Assuming of course that you aren't overbetting your BR.

PS: Im going to assume that you are playing correctly and that your ror assessment is correct. With a 60 unit bet, losing 700 units is not that uncommon. Thats the rollercoaster ride of the game. Looking backwards and questioning the odds of the event occurring is pointless as it already happened and theres nothing you can do to change that loss. Instead, work on improving your game. Find a bigger edge and try to cut down variance.
the ROR assesment is by CVCX , Norm check it all.(4 months ago)
 
#19
daniel27 said:
1 to 60, why should an AP take breaks??, not steaming.
max bet 600
That's 11-12 big bets. Not all that difficult to do. I've lost $2400 plenty of times with a max bet of $200.

I think some of the responders here are being blinded by the "700 units" number. Big bets is a better way to describe profitiability and risk.
 
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