help me with my bet spread!

I have been reading and re-reading a lot of the older posts in this forum and one thread Sonny mentioned something about how not spreading enough can really shoot up your ROR% (because you are not +EV enough I suspect). Currently I am working with a 1250 unit bankroll and I have been doing some variable spreading - a bit of the Grifters Gambit, a bit of single spot, all depending. My game is 6deck NS, DAS, DAny2, NRS, Split up to 4 times, pen varies between 65-85 (but usually around 75)%. Not a great game but w/e.

I've been capping out around 2 spots of 10 units or 1 spot of 16 units (but very rarely will I bet 1 spot of 16 units). I occasionally bet hard in TC4 or TC5 w/ 1 or 2 spots of 10 units. Other times I will bet between 5-10 units in those TC. A lot of this is very haphazard, I will often press 1 unit while TC is increasing or staying the same, etc.

My goal is to minimize ROR and variance. Ideally I would love to have a ROR of 5% or less.

Anyway sorry for this jumble of thoughts... plz help me with my bet spread!

What count?

hi lo

also do u think it would be worth it to switch to the ben franklin count? I've been putting in a TON of volume so a small increase in EV could translate into a lot of results I think. On the other hand errors could be very dangerous and I've achieved considerable success so far and don't want to mess with a good thing. I'm averaging 60+ hours a week of actual play time imo. using around 20 indices atm.

meistro


60 hours a week?!!!!

CP

Meistro


Meistro,

With that pen and no late LS, you are on very thin ice.

Ya do what Sonny said, spread like hell, I will look for your crying posts in a short time.

CP

Yes... over a sample size of a week or two. I break all the rules. Don't play through a shift change? I'll play through 4! :laugh: Virtually no cover either, unless the heat is starting me in the face and then I might use minimal cover like not decreasing bets after a loss or a push. I share lots of laughs with the pit and they don't seem to mind my presence. It helps that I don't yell at the dealers after losing a few hands for minimum bet like everyone else in this place :laugh:

The Grifter's Gambit doesn't pay off in 6D games. That's a method of getting more rounds in good counts, basically disguising a Wongout in a very profitable SD or DD game. Wrong tool for the job.

Any cover betting you do increases RoR and variance. By cover betting, I mean any bet that does not exactly correlate to the count. Keep this in mind when you bet haphazardly.

The two most important things you can do to maximize profit relative to ruin are 1) play 2 and only 2 spots, and 2) Wong out of bad counts. Don't give them a dime on a grossly -EV hand.

1 additional piece of information to calculate your spread- is your game H17 or S17?

gotcha. yeah it seems like 3 spots early on is bad in 6d because I should let the dealer (and / or one or two ploppies) discover the composition of the deck for me when my bets are -EV. should I always play 2 or play 2 at TC+1 and >?

Game is S17.

Since my game is so tough is it mandatory for me to switch to a stronger count? If I am borderline at the moment a small push upwards could make a big difference I think.

Here's your High-Low spread:

TC=1 or less: 1 unit
TC=2: 6 units
TC=3: 10 units
TC=4: 16 units.

TC at -2 or less: 0 units- count's too weak, take a leak.

Your win rate will be 2.8 units per 100 hands. Your absolute RoR with 1250 units will be 9.4%.

So you want to count like a monkey? For the Ben Franklin count:

TC=2 or less: 1 unit
TC=3: 5
TC=4: 7
TC=5: 10
TC=6: 12
TC=7: 16

TC<= -4: walk.

Win rate will be 3.2 units per 100 hands, RoR will be 9.8%.

These are for 1 hand. For 2 hands, increase your bet by 50% and divide it equally between 2 hands. RoR will stay the same and win rate will increase by close to 50%.

This is all assuming 75% pen.

at that rate i think i'd want to have a real solid idea of what the heck i was doing.:whip:

Thanks a lot Monkey, I really appreciate it. That is a lot higher than I have been betting usually. I think I might step down a limit if this is my optimal spread.

You calculate spread from the top down, not the min-up. What is your ideal top bet for your BR size? zg

Well, it is either 12 or 24 units - I'm not quite sure if my top bet should be 1% of my BR or my adv, since at TC +4 or TC +5 my adv should be 2%. I think the safe way to go would be to bet no more than 1% of my BR on one hand and have a top bet of 12 units - or 18 units split between two hands. What do you think zg?

lemme hop in here again Meistro, and just say this stuff your trying to decide can have fairly complex factors, to do with the game or games you play and various conditions such as how many people at the table, penetration, how you figure your true count, ect.
i'd suggest getting a good blackjack simulator, especially since you put so much time in at the tables. the cost of one really would be worth it since then you would greatly decrease the uncertainty involved for the risk you are taking.
i'd also suggest getting a really good personal understanding of the risk involved before you make decisions on the matter of bet spread and ramps.
a simulator can help you with that as well, thing is just try and understand what risk really is in the first place and what it means to you.

My Results

From a point of view Wonging out at -2 and Max at +5. Using the former's advice I calculated an optimal bet spread of the following:
TC-2 to TC0 = 1 unit
TC1 = 2 units
TC2 = 4 units
TC3 = 8 units
TC4 = 11 units
TC5 = 15 units

I ran a sim using PowerSim based on a $5 unit. This sim was for no re-split aces but that's probably an insignificant difference. Here are the results:

PowerSim Simulation File: 6ds17.sim

Decks: 6
Cards: 312
Players: 3
Shuffle Point: 234
Maximum Rounds per shoe (32767 = infinity): 32767
Burn Cards: 0
Maximum Dealer Rounds (0 = infinity): 0
Holecard(1) or Upcard(0) last: 1
European No Hole Card: 0
Maximum Split Hands: 4
Double After Splits: 1
Resplit Aces: 0
Extra Hits on Split Aces: 0
Double on hard 10 or 11 only: 0
Double on split aces: 0
Dealer hits soft 17: 0
Late Surrender: 0
Bet Ramps from: 6ds17.sco

Player # 1: -20: 0 -19: 0 -18: 0 -17: 0 -16: 0 -15: 0 -14: 0 -13: 0 -12: 0 -11: 0 -10: 0 -9: 0 -8: 0 -7: 0 -6: 0 -5: 0 -4: 0 -3: 0 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 10 2: 20 3: 40 4: 50 5: 75 6: 75 7: 75 8: 75 9: 75 10: 75 11: 75 12: 75 13: 75 14: 75 15: 75 16: 75 17: 75 18: 75 19: 75 20: 75
Player # 2: -20: 0 -19: 0 -18: 0 -17: 0 -16: 0 -15: 0 -14: 0 -13: 0 -12: 0 -11: 0 -10: 0 -9: 0 -8: 0 -7: 0 -6: 0 -5: 0 -4: 0 -3: 0 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 10 2: 20 3: 40 4: 50 5: 75 6: 75 7: 75 8: 75 9: 75 10: 75 11: 75 12: 75 13: 75 14: 75 15: 75 16: 75 17: 75 18: 75 19: 75 20: 75
Player # 3: -20: 0 -19: 0 -18: 0 -17: 0 -16: 0 -15: 0 -14: 0 -13: 0 -12: 0 -11: 0 -10: 0 -9: 0 -8: 0 -7: 0 -6: 0 -5: 0 -4: 0 -3: 0 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 10 2: 20 3: 40 4: 50 5: 75 6: 75 7: 75 8: 75 9: 75 10: 75 11: 75 12: 75 13: 75 14: 75 15: 75 16: 75 17: 75 18: 75 19: 75 20: 75

40000000 rounds Bankroll = 6250
1: $.1140869/$9.84023 = 1.159392% var = 414.171 SCORE = 31.4262 ROR = .0319613
2: $.1148285/$9.84023 = 1.166929% var = 414.253 SCORE = 31.8298 ROR = .0312753
3: $.1147121/$9.84023 = 1.165746% var = 414.053 SCORE = 31.7806 ROR = .0313329

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I prefer the latter spread. I stand ready to be corrected. The previous posters are generally not to be reckoned with by the likes of me!

I tried out AM's spread today (as best as I could remember it) and it worked really well. My first shoe was +50 units (hit TC4 fairly early on) and it was all uphill from there. Finished the day +220ish units. I like the idea of your spread as well tripsix - although I'm skeptical about the 2 units at TC1 - if it reduces variance and / or ROR. I like the idea of betting less, because I would like to avoid negative variance wherever possible (who doesn't). Giving how I have been running like God lately I feel almost like I am due for a bad run - although I recognize this is voodoo thinking and I don't think I let this thought affect my game. I'd like to thank everyone for their input in this thread thus far - you all have been invaluable to me as of late. I've been reading all the old posts on this forum and there is a lot of wisdom and insight to be gained there.