The Victor Insurance Parameter

D

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
I saw some intricate math behind it but cant see why it would work. How can unseen aces have anything to do with insurance since we take it when the ace is up not down.

There may be no simple answer but I cant grasp the concept.

TC alone should be the number you need I would think.

I bet they know what they are talking about but its got me dazed and confused.
 
Deathclutch

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
The way I'm reading makes it seem way too easy. Let's say I'm playing DD using Hi Opt II. Insurance would go like this.

Take insurance at:

RC of 9 with 7 aces left
RC of 7 with 6 aces left
RC of 6 with 5 aces left
RC of 5 with 4 aces left
RC of 4 with 3 aces left
RC of 3 with 2 aces left
RC of 2 with 1 ace left
Use TC with 0 aces left

I'm on my phone and haven't read the article since last night, but if I remember correctly this is basically what the article stated.
 
Jack_Black

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
what up deathclutch. Yes, you're reading it wrong. Hi opt 2 already has a pretty high IC. 91%, but I guess if you want more than VIP is the way to go, but I haven't quite figured out a way to do the math quickly in front of a dealer. It is actually when the running count times .85 exceeds the number of unseen aces.

hope you're killing the casinos like I've been.
 
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Deathclutch

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Jack_Black said:
what up deathclutch. Yes, you're reading it wrong. Hi opt 2 already has a pretty high IC. 91%, but I guess if you want more than VIP is the way to go, but I haven't quite figured out a way to do the math quickly in front of a dealer. It is actually when the running count times 1.12 exceeds the number of unseen aces.

Example RC 9x1.12=10. If there are less than 10 aces left, Insure.

hope you're killing the casinos like I've been.
Click to expand...
Didn't you say you mostly played DD? Shouldn't be too hard to set up eight RC points along with the eight aces in DD.
 
Deathclutch

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Jack_Black said:
what up deathclutch. Yes, you're reading it wrong. Hi opt 2 already has a pretty high IC. 91%, but I guess if you want more than VIP is the way to go, but I haven't quite figured out a way to do the math quickly in front of a dealer. It is actually when the running count times 1.12 exceeds the number of unseen aces.

Example RC 9x1.12=10. If there are less than 10 aces left, Insure.

hope you're killing the casinos like I've been.
Click to expand...
And looking at that again seems like such a small number to multiply by that DD would basically be if RC equals number of unseen aces, insure.

It would work that way for 7 and below.
 
Jack_Black

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Yea, I just thought about that. but that's something else I gotta memorize now. Also, my mistake, I read that article wrong. It's when 85% of the running count exceeds the number of aces.

RC 9 aces left 8.
RC 8 aces left 7
 
Deathclutch

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Jack_Black said:
Yea, I just thought about that. but that's something else I gotta memorize now. Also, my mistake, I read that article wrong. It's when 85% of the running count exceeds the number of aces.

RC 9 aces left 8.
RC 8 aces left 7
Click to expand...
How are you coming up with that number?
 
Jack_Black

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
it says hi opt 2 7/6 (1.17) or you can do denominator divided by numerator. 6/7=.857 So you can either do RC/1.17 or RC*.86. It's the same thing
 
Deathclutch

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
So with that this is what we're looking at:

RC VIP

9 7.65
8 6.8
7 5.95
6 5.1
5 4.25
4 3.4
3 2.55
2 1.7
1 .85

Now looking at this I don't think we'd round up. Such as on RC of 8, we wouldn't call for insurance with 7 aces left because the VIP hasn't been reached. So basically the Hi Opt II would come out like this:

We don't need to worry about 8 in DD as that would never happen
7 Aces - RC 9
6 Aces - RC 8 (just barely)
5 Aces - RC 6
4 Aces - RC 5
3 Aces - RC 4
2 Aces - RC 3
1 Ace - RC 2
0 Aces, revert to true count.
 
Jack_Black

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
Deathclutch said:
So with that this is what we're looking at:

RC VIP

9 7.65
8 6.8
7 5.95
6 5.1
5 4.25
4 3.4
3 2.55
2 1.7
1 .85

Now looking at this I don't think we'd round up. Such as on RC of 8, we wouldn't call for insurance with 7 aces left because the VIP hasn't been reached. So basically the Hi Opt II would come out like this:

We don't need to worry about 8 in DD as that would never happen
7 Aces - RC 9
6 Aces - RC 8 (just barely)
5 Aces - RC 6
4 Aces - RC 5
3 Aces - RC 4
2 Aces - RC 3
1 Ace - RC 2
0 Aces, revert to true count.
Click to expand...
You forgot RC7, but I would really round up anything above .5 and round down below .4. But then again, AP in blackjack is all about consistency, as some people round, truncate, or floor their TC. So just pick how you come to whole number and don't change how you come to your answer. BUT! I would really suggest rounding for VIP. Also, hi opt 2 takes a lot of concentration, <read> it makes you look like a card counter, unless you have really practiced it for thousands of hours and you're truly a pro. plus adding VIP wouldn't help you're cover. I haven't made the leap yet, still using hi opt1 with VIP. It's pretty easy, 1.5xRC. I can hold conversations and still keep track of the cards.
 
Deathclutch

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
#16
#16
Jack_Black said:
You forgot RC7, but I would really round up anything above .5 and round down below .4. But then again, AP in blackjack is all about consistency, as some people round, truncate, or floor their TC. So just pick how you come to whole number and don't change how you come to your answer. BUT! I would really suggest rounding for VIP. Also, hi opt 2 takes a lot of concentration, <read> it makes you look like a card counter, unless you have really practiced it for thousands of hours and you're truly a pro. plus adding VIP wouldn't help you're cover. I haven't made the leap yet, still using hi opt1 with VIP. It's pretty easy, 1.5xRC. I can hold conversations and still keep track of the cards.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure why you'd think I'd need cover with VIP? VIP is easier and faster than getting a TC. The reason I didn't add RC 7 is because I'll never need to use it in a DD game. It was 5.95 meaning that it didn't quite make the threshold for the 6 ace mark, so to take insurance on 6 aces left would require a RC of 8. The ones posted above are it. Basically if your RC is one higher than the number of aces left (except for 7 and 6 aces) you take insurance. 7 and 6 aces left are RC two higher. If anything my reactions will be faster!
 
Jack_Black

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member
#17
#17
I would really recommend rounding. 5.95 is pretty much 6 any way you look at it. .9 would round up, .95 would round up. To floor that number that is so close to 6 just doesn't make sense for me.

The reason maybe, why I said you need cover, is because it will be too accurate. An upgrade from 91% to 93%. Youre gonna really have to come up with excuses each time. "i'm lucky" only works so many times. Maybe hoot and holler more? Ask Creeping Panther, maybe he's got some suggestions. Also, I was still thinking about processing the VIP in my head as I play, and not being memorized beforehand.
 
A

ALANEM

Member
#18
#18
Do not take insurance!

DO NOT TAKE INSURANCE! Why do you think “Insurance Pays 2 To 1” is written across the felt of the Blackjack table? The casino WANTS you to take insurance! You will LOSE more! They will profit more.

From my book The S.E.X. Blackjack System--

"Insurance is not a good bet. The casino advantage over the player who takes insurance is just under eight per cent! That is the reason why “Insurance Pays 2 To 1” is written across the felt of the Blackjack table. The casino wants you to take insurance! They will profit more. Besides, the word insurance has a safe connotation. Forget it! Insurance is a losing bet."
 
J

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#19
#19
Alan, does your book also point out when, exactly, insurance is an excellent bet, perhaps the most important one at the tables as far as EV goes?
 
Deathclutch

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
#20
#20
ALANEM said:
DO NOT TAKE INSURANCE! Why do you think “Insurance Pays 2 To 1” is written across the felt of the Blackjack table? The casino WANTS you to take insurance! You will LOSE more! They will profit more.

From my book The S.E.X. Blackjack System--

"Insurance is not a good bet. The casino advantage over the player who takes insurance is just under eight per cent! That is the reason why “Insurance Pays 2 To 1” is written across the felt of the Blackjack table. The casino wants you to take insurance! They will profit more. Besides, the word insurance has a safe connotation. Forget it! Insurance is a losing bet."
Click to expand...


I've never read that book, but you may want to double check and see if that quote is in the basic strategy section because there are many times a count will tell you it is profitable to take insurance.
 
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