SystemsTrader said:
Here's a new side bet I came across. Did not see any info about it on the WOO. Beating this one would require somekind of specialized count. Here's the rules:
Must make regular blackjack bet, then you can make additional Dragon 8's bet.
Minimum bet $5
Maximum bet $50
If your first two cards and the Dealer's top card contain any of the following combinations, you win!
Three Suited 8's 200-1
Three 8's 50-1
Straight 18 (5,6,& 7) 25-1
Any Triple 15-1
Pair of 8's 7-1
"Baccarat" 8(Totals 8,18 or 28) 2-1
Any Pair 1-1
Ok, so working through them all using info from WOO:
Three suited 8s:
p=0.000016, return=200*0.000016=0.003191
Three 8s:
p=0.000388, return=50*0.000388=0.019388
567:
p=0.002757, return=25*0.002757=0.068936
Trips (not 8s):
p=0.004845, return=15*0.004845=0.072670
Pair of 8s:
p=0.015855, return=7*0.015855=0.110988
Baccarat:
p=217/2197=0.098771, return=2*0.098771=0.197542
Any Pair (not 8s):
p=0.190264, return=0.190264
So I get returns of:
0.003191
0.019388
0.068936
0.072670
0.110988
0.197542
0.190264
for a total return of 0.662979 or a HE of 33.7021%.
Clearly there is a big difference between my numbers and SOH's numbers. The first couple of differences are explained by my assumption of a 6 deck shoe. In fact, I pulled a couple of my numbers directly from the WOO chart for the Lucky Lucky side bet, since trip 7s is the same odds as trip 8s, etc.
Our biggest difference is obviously the return on pairs, both a pair of 8s and any pair. I figured these wrong myself the first time through, but we discussed our methods in the chat. Sonny helped us figure out our problem and we arrived at the numbers I've listed above.
At this point, I'm pretty confident in all of the numbers in this post, but as always, I'd love for someone else to look them over and see if they concur.