Low bankroll strategy/confirmation of sim please

I play $5 min, 6deck tables and I'm currently playing with a bankroll of only $1,000, which I know is no where near enough to make much with a reasonably low ROR. So I ran a sim with CVCX with a much lower than ideal spread (1-5) to see if I could get my ROR fairly low with such a low bankroll. The results were a ROR of 11.6% and win/hour of $3.80. Obviously not a great win rate but my primary goal right now is not to make money, but to enjoy blackjack and practice in a casino setting without losing my bankroll. I will have a much larger bankroll in 6 months or so and will increase my spread then.

I have two reasons for posting this:

First, I want to make sure my sim is correct. I just got CVCX and am still learning to use it. I would really appreciate it if someone could take the time to run a sim to double check my work. I included all the details of my strategy and table conditions below.

Second, assuming my sim is correct, does it make sense for me to do this? If I'm willing to take an EV decrease, spreading 1-5 instead of 1-12 makes sense right? Remember, I'm not trying to earn money to pay for college tuition, just want to play with atleast SOME positive EV and a ROR around 10% or lower.

Strategy: Wong's hi/low, Sweet 16, Full deck resolution, Truncate count, Wong in/out at +1, Spread 1-5 (TC1=$5, TC2=$5, TC3=$10, TC4=$15, TC5=$20, TC6=25)

Table: 6deck, H17, $5min, DAS, Double any 2, LS, 75% pen, No RSA

I got Win Rate of $3.80/hour and ROR 11.6%.

Any suggestions and a confirmation sim would be greatly appreciated! If I left anything out please ask.

I haven't checked your numbers, but if you know you will be adding to your BR in 6 months, you may want to use trip RoR instead of lifetime RoR. Estimate the number of hours you will play in the next 6 months and figure the risk of ruin using a 6 month "trip". The calculated RoR will be lower, and will give you an accurate look at the probability of going broke before you add to your BR and change your spread. If you are OK with this number being 10%, you'll be able to bet a little more.

...just want to play with at least SOME positive EV and a ROR around 10% or lower.
Strategy: ...Wong in/out at +1,....

Hi kasi,

yes Im backcounting. I thought wonging in and backcounting were the same thing. Am I wrong? And no the software didn't suggest it. My ROR was too high with what it suggested because of my low backroll so I changed it. Just changed it to backcount til +1. My infinite ROR with the optimal bet spread was real high (30% or somewhere near there)

I would post a screen shot but I'm on an iPhone and can't get to my computer.

Thanks for your reply. Right I suppose "wongin/wongout" is maybe the same as back-counting lol. I guess it's that "wonging-out" that implies maybe something different to me - like I can leave when I want but I can't come back when I want in the same shoe.

Anyway, since you confirmed the software did not suggest your spread, I'd suggest you allow it to maybe? I just can't see a 30% ROR back-counting with a 1-5 spread with a 200 unit roll even if one were to enter at TC=+1 which also seems a little early to me maybe lol. But, you know, it's not like I have the software so consider my opinion hear-say evidence. Maybe even heresy lol.

The fact you said CVCX came up with a 30% ROR still surprises me but, since I know CVCX knows what it's doing, the only problem remaining for me is figuring out how I can be so far off lol.

I would have thought back-counting your 4.5/6 H17 DAS LS with 200 units would be a very nice way to use $1K at a $5 min table allowing MSE.

No big deal. All I basically go on is pick some Table from Don's book and try to equate it what other people propose doing lol.

So, any pic appreciated becasue that's about the only thing that lets me figure out better what it is doing lol.

After which, I'm usually more confused than when I began lol.

here ya go Kasi,
below is close to what menace had, i think i just did my tc figuring a bit different than he did, flooring and full deck resolution sort of thing.

if you will check out my other post :fish:
here: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=163855&postcount=11
i'm confused to, lmao.

....
Always got a kick out of, when, while losing my ass, I had the "knowledge" I was making 1.7 cents (EV) every time I clicked my mouse lol.
....

I'm almost positive you would want to put more for "hands played" because I believe it is hand SEEN per hour. If your backcounting a shoe without ever playing it counts those as "hands played." So it basically means "hands viewed." Let me know if I'm wrong here but I think I read that on the manual.

Thanks for doing a sim of mine. I wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

.....

I'm almost positive you would want to put more for "hands played" because I believe it is hand SEEN per hour. If your backcounting a shoe without ever playing it counts those as "hands played." So it basically means "hands viewed." Let me know if I'm wrong here but I think I read that on the manual.

Thanks for doing a sim of mine. I wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

Kasi, my ror is 10% not 30%. And I forgot, it actually did recommend that spread after I put in that I would backcount til +1 and only spread 1-5. With a larger spread my ror was reeeaal high so I lowered it to 1-5. But cvcx figured out how to increase it.

see right there, what you just said is the point i was trying to make in that other post where i said, "i'd learned one of the most valuable lessons from just watching you play at that joint in WV."
that's what i was talking about, i mean i could see that kind of mentality just from watching your play, it was a really great lesson, no joke.:1st:

so but anyway, on all that other stuff you posted and that i dotted out above, yeah i'm on the same page, lol, just i'm one heck of probably a lot more confused by it all.

like i know, you discussed that stuff with QFIT over in the math and theory section of the forums.
and i was sort of getting what QFIT said and what you said, at least i know when i got your sheet to get some of the numbers to agree in this link:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=163855&postcount=11

Hey I couldn't even tell what pic I was replying to the last time lol.

Anyway, the $1 for 3 (physical) rds is really 57 cents but rounded.
I don't think saying 37 hds/hr or 10 hds/hr increases winrate. Bot the sim and my sheet have the same win rate of .93%. In both cases my sheet says you make 19 cents/hd (physical hd in my sheet but in cvcx the "$/hd" is not per a physical hand played I believe.

I guess you could say when you plug in 37/hds/hr your "winrate" goes up in $'s but that is only becasue you have played more physical rounds. In other words, at 37/hds/hr (seen), you make 19 cents per physical rd played*37*26.8%. At 10/hds/hr u make 10*26.8%*19 cents per physical hand played= 51 cents/"hr".

But, in both cases , one is making 19 cents EV per every physical round played. I guess CVCX just chooses to express it as what I'd call an "avg/hd/hr".
I think maybe the same thing lol except I'd just prefer to keep track of pysical rds played rather than, as some do, only keep track of "hrs played".

Also it looks to me I have something wrong with N0 in that the hourly number changes which I don't think it should lol. But at least I got the same N0 for "physical rds played" - 16000 odd whatever it was - I think N0 maybe seems to be traditionally express ed in "hrs" rather than "hds" perhaps to compare to other games? It may even also assume an underlying assumption of "100/hds/hr seen or played" by accepted defintion.

And also, when you say somewhere about entering at say +1 or +2 or whatever it was but leaving at a TC=) or even Tc=-1 whatever it was, I guess I'd call that a different game than back-counting. Maybe that would be "wonging-out"? or "wonging in and out"? Lol.I mean if the game allows MSE why not just tsit tat the table observing all rds plyed and play the ones you choose to? (In theory lol).

Hey, as long as one knows what to expect from the sims(s) you ran, that's I think the ideal lol.

Since, I don't know if I could run or maybe even understand what a sim might be telling me to enter at +2 but leave at TC=0, I'd probably just try to do something I felt I had a real good idea what to expect from it lol.

i did squirrel around with that 26% number some even though i didn't understand really what i was doing, lol.

but i mean yeah, i think i can see where your coming from sort of thing, cause ok, like the sim i asked about and your sheets, thing is now, ok i've got some information, problem is i'm not sure i understand what heck i got, lmao.
where i say that is, i'm sort of lost trying to match up the reality of what i think i'm doing in the really brick and mortar joint, and the information i have from the cvcx sim and your sheet, sort of thing.

like ok, in the joint where i'm trying to 'back count' or 'wong' these tables, what i'm really doing is i'll just go from table to table that has a shoe just starting out and i'll watch and wait till i get a positive count, then i'll jump in there and make a table min bet, sort of thing, then if the count stays positive i might play another round and bet accordingly, sort of thing, but if the count drops to zero i'll leave and check another table, sort of thing.

thing is what i'm wondering is like if i actually play say three hands or rounds say,(forgetting for the moment however many rounds i've watched) then like in that link http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=163855&postcount=11
where it shows three hands played and EV of $1, well what i'm wondering is that my actual expectation for those hands or rounds i'm actually physically playing (again forgetting about all the rounds i just watched).:whip:
edit: like ok i might watch i dunno how the heck many tables and rounds in an hour, but ok i think i might be actually physically playing maybe ten hands in an hour, sort of thing.

see if i knew the answer to that question i could just bet away at those few rounds, lose my ass off and know that i'm making $1/3round physically played or $1/3hand physically played, sort of thing, :laugh:

oh yeah, and i apologize if i've hijacked this thread,:devil::whip:

...

Also it looks to me I have something wrong with N0 in that the hourly number changes which I don't think it should lol. But at least I got the same N0 for "physical rds played" - 16000 odd whatever it was - I think N0 maybe seems to be traditionally express ed in "hrs" rather than "hds" perhaps to compare to other games? It may even also assume an underlying assumption of "100/hds/hr seen or played" by accepted defintion.

And also, when you say somewhere about entering at say +1 or +2 or whatever it was but leaving at a TC=) or even Tc=-1 whatever it was, I guess I'd call that a different game than back-counting. Maybe that would be "wonging-out"? or "wonging in and out"? Lol.I mean if the game allows MSE why not just tsit tat the table observing all rds plyed and play the ones you choose to? (In theory lol).

Hey, as long as one knows what to expect from the sims(s) you ran, that's I think the ideal lol.

Since, I don't know if I could run or maybe even understand what a sim might be telling me to enter at +2 but leave at TC=0, I'd probably just try to do something I felt I had a real good idea what to expect from it lol.