Thunder said:
Sleight, is there any mathematical data to back this up because again, I would think that if the count ever got positive when doing this, it's more likelybecause the count had tanked before hand, therefore negating quite a bit of the counting edge.
True Count Theorum states that the TC is more likely to stay at the same TC after playing at a TC of x. Since each card has an equal probability of coming out in a deck, statistically, the ratio of high to low cards will still remain the same.
That being said, we cannot know what happened before we started backcounting in the middle of the shoe. Yes, all the big cards could have been played, but its just as possible that all the small cards are gone as well. In the end, it averages out to as if we don't know anything, which is why we treat it as behind the cut card.
MAZ said:
Which if you are just a counter is a stupid ass way to play. Really, would you waste time counting shoes with 50% pen or less? If you do then you have no idea what the hell you are doing and you get what you deserve. Most of these friggin counters are just gamblers trying to cover up their obsession. They need to get the money out there and are looking for any possible way to do it, whether its a good idea or not. If you need to rationalize your play you're doing something wrong. Play less but play well. get rid of the need for the juice effect of tossing money out there. If you want more play, then learn how to play better.
Yes, its true that its an awful way to play, I was just saying that you can in fact play a +EV game if you do. The OP was questioning the legitimacy of the strategy, not its strength.